By Abdel Haq Noor

 November 28, 2017

 

Once upon a time there used to live an infamous witch who makes a living in predicting future events and dispensing concoctions to heal the sick and relieve the distressed. Realization of his predictions garnered him a fame that has reached the King’s court. His concoctions also often worked. But one day his luck runs out. A wrong concoction he gave to one of his patients killed the patient. This led to his arrest and he was brought before a judge who condemned him to death. Impressed by feat of the witch, the king temporarily suspended the death sentence to ask him about his fate, the date of his death. “When am I going to die?” the King asked.  Surprised by the turn of events that brought him to king’s court, the witch responded, ” I need three days and supply of materials for performing the ritual for figuring out the date of your death”.  After the third day, the witch was summoned to share what the spirits revealed to him about the fate of the king. “Unfortunately, your destiny and mine are intertwined”, said the witch in nonchalant manner. “How?” asked the king. “You will die the next morning I passed away”, responded the witch. The response troubled the king and left him in limbo. “Is the witch trying to save himself”, the king wondered. But given the track record of the witch, the king suspected there might be truth in what the witch is saying. The king was left in utter dilemma- should he side with his longing for life or entertain his suspicion of the witch who might be trying to save his skin. The will to live, finally, triumphed over his suspicions and the King pardoned the witch and granted him the highest protection and care.

The “witch” of Ethiopian politics

This story demonstrates the current Ethiopian political crises. Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition of unequal that ruled the country for more than a quarter of a century is “the witch” of Ethiopian politics that believes its fate and the fate of the country are intertwined. For proponents of the ruling party, EPRDF not only brought Ethiopia from the edge of disintegration and potential genocide when it assumed power 26 years ago but also its “untimely” removal from power could herald the end of Ethiopia. In short, if TPLF/EPRDF goes, Ethiopia follows. One of the top ideologue of EPRDF, Bereket Simon, said during closely contested election of 2005, “if Ethiopia implodes; the resulting genocide will reduce the Rwanda genocide to child’s play”. As a country of over 100 million people, the ramifications of Ethiopia’s rupture cannot be confined within Ethiopian border.

The fear of disintegration coupled with possibility of resulting genocide has made many to capitulate to the whims and vagaries of the ruling party. Is Ethiopia really on the verge of disintegration and genocide? Is EPRDF its only savior? Or is it a make-it-belief narrative the ruling party uses to delude Ethiopian masses to lengthen its stay in power?   Can peaceful power transition occur in Ethiopia without the ‘anticipated’ bloodshed? These questions are genuine concerns that need sober reflections.  Dismissing these concerns out of hand or being indifferent to them will not be helpful to say the least. The focus of any aspirant politician should go beyond the ousting of the ruling party. Mechanisms to avoid potential negative repercussions of power transition should be taught thoroughly and solutions put in place along with a design for the future of the country that is palatable for all political actors. The turmoil in the opposition camp and their lack of shared vision adds to the apprehension of the public and gives traction to ruling party narrative.

This article aims to contribute to this reflection. A look at genesis of Ethiopia from its precursor Abyssinia is indispensable for understanding the current Ethiopian political quagmire. Ethiopia in its current shape is the product of Menilik’s “expansion or invasion”, depending on one’s interpretation of history. Or Menilik II is unifier-in-chief and defender of the country sovereignty for portion of Ethiopians; a black-colonizer who partook in scramble of Africa with his white partners for others. Whatever reading of history one prefers, majority of Oromo, Somali, and southern nations and nationalities became part of the current Ethiopia via Menilik II expeditions. Later the Hawd and reserve areas of current Somali regional states transferred to Ethiopia during the reign of emperor Hailesilasie. During both emperors and the Derg, diversity has been shunned and all ethnic groups were systematically compelled to assume shared identity, language, belief in order for them to qualify to “one Ethiopia” vision. Those who failed to conscribe to this value were rendered second class citizens.

EPRDF recognized the mistakes of the past regimes in addressing identity-related grievances   and made an effort to address it. In doing so, EPRDF took Ethiopia to uncharted water by restructuring Ethiopia polity based mainly on ethnic identities, a federation of nations, nationalities and peoples.  In the new system of governance, sovereignty resides with the nations, nationalities and peoples and they have self-administration rights including the right to secede if they find doing so more befitting their interest. Article 39 (1) of the constitution that reads, “Every nation, nationality or people in Ethiopia shall have the unrestricted right to self-determination up to secession” is there to serve this purpose according EPRDFites. The non-Abyssinian parts of Ethiopia supported the ethnic federalism championed by the TPLF led coalition due to more rights and self-rule it bestows while opposition voices from Amhara elites and their affiliates were silenced tagging them as undemocratic forces longing for yesteryear.

For proponents of ruling party, Ethiopia, in the current arrangement, is a shared vision, a unifying force that binds its members and a sum that is greater than its parts. The idea seems perfect, right? But alas, there are caveats. The gulf between the letter and spirit of the constitution and the practice in Ethiopian federation of ethnic groups is difficult not to notice even for ruling supporters.  TPLF, the lion-share-holder in the ruling party, represent a minority population, less than 6% of Ethiopian population. A genuine federalism will not serve its interest given junior partners it helped create such as ANDM of Amhara region and OPDO of Oromia regional state will wield more power and resources.

To circumvent the “constitutional challenge” of the demo, TPLF borrowed from its socialist root the concept of democratic centralism that give equal representation to all the members of the coalition regardless of their population to have a seat at the table. What’s more, in that “equal representation” some are more equal than others. To further complicate the matter, the constitution was written not only in a way difficult to alter to the benefits of the majority ethnic groups but it has also got a “controversial” article 39(1) that somehow left a dampening effect on the pro-unity elements of the danger of disintegration and thus the ramification it might result given the past injustices they have committed.

TPLF also used a “we-liberated-you” card to cement its rule in Ethiopia. According to this card, TPLF paid heavy price in the collapse of the Derg regime and hence, as winners they deserve a war bounty proportionate to the sacrifice they made.  To ensure this, TPLF hatched junior partners molded in its image and made them the new “balabats”, as John Merkakis the leading historian of Ethiopian politics would call them. The new balabats rule regional states on TPLF’s behalf.  Seizing the opportunity, TPLF also set the ground rule and took all the key positions of power, such as intelligence, defense, foreign affairs, and “advisory” positions (with more than advisory role in practice) to all the federal member states. These have allowed TPLF to exercise unlimited and unfettered influence not only at federal level but also at all the regions up to the district level. The regime also employed what it called gimgema (self-incrimination/criticism) and One-to-Five pairing of its members and the wider public to monitor and keep in check of dissent. With these powers also comes economic muscle. Old businesses were closed, and new ones emerged with close ties with the ruling elites.

As a result, under the leadership of TPLF/EPRDF, the democratic aspiration of the people remained what it was – a dream; “federalism” only remained in name and TPLF elites became the new emperors. The saying of an elder aptly captured the sad-state-of-affairs, “during the emperor time, the emperor will select the best of our elders and appoint them Dejazmach or Fitwarary and through them he used to rule us. Derg used to appoint the most educated person among our children and through them they used to rule us. When EPRDF came, they abandoned both the wise elders and the educated amongst us and have chosen the worst among us and ruled us ruthlessly”.

Appointment of incompetent, “worst individuals” in the words of the elder quoted above, was the practice of the incumbent regime. This practice seems to have changed recently when organizations like OPDO and ANDM started to choose their own leaders among their ranks and files against the wish of the TPLF leaders. Reasons abound for the change of hearts including:  (a) the relentless and stiff resistance of the people not only to undermine but to isolate and ostracize the appointed leaders and their families from any social groupings including burning of their houses when opportunity avails itself like during the recent uprising; and (b) the  lessons drawn by the OPDO and ANDM leaders that they were only used for the time being and thrown out by the TPLF once their service is no more required, with no community to return to as serving TPLF interest have severed their tie with the people they are supposed to “represent”.

The incline towards independence on the part of OPDO and ANDM is an existential threat for TPLF, for the obvious reasons mentioned above; it is the start of the end of its grip on power. To keep the status quo intact, the TPLF has used institutions and agents in its disposal, such as the intelligence and the military. The objective of using these agents is mainly to undermine the new leadership of OPDO, weaken their standing in public opinion, and once this is sufficiently undertaken to supplant them with hand-picked individuals who will maintain the status quo. To this end, (so far) they have used two broad strategies. The first and the most barbaric one is to instigate Abdi Iley, the Somali regional state president, to invade the border region of Oromia that stretch over 1000km killing over thousands and displacing over hundred thousand people. By doing this, the goal was to stretch the militia and police force of Oromia thin and to undermine and show the impotency of the OPDO leadership. But the plan, so devastating it was, could not bring the desired result as the people stood up against the war-hardened Liyu police of Somali region. This prompted the TPLF to instruct Abdi Iley to unleash the second plan of evicting 67,000 Oromos and confiscate their property (Some unverified reports indicate the killing of innocent Oromos as well) following what it seems a well-orchestrated killing of 43 Somalis in Awaday town. This scheme too failed miserably as it rendered unintended good of uniting the Oromos.

So, the second barbaric plan was set in motion. This plan was to prompt unauthorized mass rallies and demonstrations throughout Oromia using OLF flags, provoking the military, and targeting non-Oromo ethnic groups when possible. Two main objectives were behind instigating these mass rallies. First, to show the current OPDO leadership is not accepted by the people as the people chose OLF flag instead of OPDO one. Second, to show the failure of OPDO leadership to protect other ethnic groups from the mob-justice. This, according to conspirers will instill fear among the non-Oromos and create a conducive environment for immediate intervention by the federal government (aka TPLF) and use the opportunity to silence an increasingly assertive OPDO leadership.

Arrests made by the Oromia police, however, have foiled the plot as these arrests showed clearly non-Oromos especially federal intelligence agents were behind the mass rallies and the waving of the OLF flag. Furthermore, Oromo leadership have foiled the evil plan and calmed down the situation along the support given by ANDM and some Amhara activists who understood the plot. So, all the “best laid plans” seems to have failed to bear any fruits. What would happen next will definitely define the future of Ethiopia- will the ongoing rapprochement between Oromo and Amhara ethnic group hold and sway the country towards unity or will conspirers succeed in instigating ethnic conflict that may go beyond their control and take the country to its demise?

The TPLF leadership will either come to their senses as it dawns to them nothing could silence the public and uphold the constitution to allow others to exercise their constitutionally given rights including self-determination and self-rule or they will dismiss all the signs and symptoms of the growing frustration of the people and attempt to control it violently. Whilst the former unites Ethiopia to embark on a new chapter of harmony and could mean a historic reordering of the Ethiopian state, the latter will further disintegrate the country descending it to anarchy and chaos. The ball is in the court of TPLF at least for now. But things are changing quickly in Ethiopian politics and what tomorrow holds for the country is difficult to anticipate.  But one thing is clear, TPLF can no longer sell the “witch story” and claim to be the only panacea for Ethiopia.

Yes, there is a possibility of Ethiopia ceasing to exist once TPLF is ousted. But the continued rule by TPLF will only amplify this risk.  So, it’s high time democratization of Ethiopia should take these challenges into consideration. There is a need to untie the fate of the country from the fate of TPLF and give enough assurance to different segments of society (military, security and other business entities) who might equate their safety and interest with continuity of the status quo.  First a genuine discussion among EPRDF parties is needed, and these parties should commit the full implementation of its constitution. Return to constitutionalism could start with abolition of laws passed to curb citizens’ political rights and press freedom. Further token of good will on the part of TPLF/EPRDF could be the release of prisoners jailed for exercising their constitutional rights. Bringing leaders like Abdi Iley to account for their crimes against the Somalis and Oromos. All-inclusive discussion with all opposition parties without precondition is needed. No agenda should be off the table, including the constitution itself. Doing so will steer Ethiopia out of quagmire it currently finds itself in. Otherwise, Ethiopia of today will be remembered as part of history, realizing the second proposition of what a veteran politician, Lenco Leta once wrote “Ethiopia should change or Perish”.

You can reach the author via email “abdelhaq.noor@gmail.com”