Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2026
https://ericzuesse.substack.com/p/us-gains-short-term-from-hormuz-crisis
https://theduran.com/u-s-gains-short-term-from-hormuz-crisis-and-china-gains-
U.S. Gains Short-Term From Hormuz Crisis, and China Gains Long-Term From It
19 October 2026, by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)
While ‘news’-media have been loaded with opinion and ‘analysis’ articles about which of the major powers will gain and which lose from the Hormuz crisis, two think tanks have published serious actual analyses of it, and here are the findings of each:
On 2 July 2026, the European Central Bank study “Beyond energy prices: the ripple effects of Gulf supply disruptions” found that America would be the least hurt, China the most hurt, and the EU would be between those two.
On 10 August 2026, the Brookings Institution study “Electrostates vs. petrostates: The US, China, and the Hormuz energy shock” found that short-term, America would be the least hurt, but that long-term, China would be the least hurt, and that the EU would be between those two.
The difference between the two studies is that whereas the ECB study ignored that China’s long-term strategy has been and is to lead the world’s energy-future by gradually replacing fossil fuels by cleaner energy sources, America is committed in the opposite direction, to “drill, baby, drill,” and that “global warming is a hoax,” and that therefore the longer-term impacts from the current fossil-fuels bottlenecks will be to expedite the by-now-inevitable energy-transition into non-carbon-based fuels — the energy-sources where China’s advantage is increasing and will now even be accelerating in the wake of the Israel-American invasions against Iran.
Consequently: as the U.S. imperial regime continues its bifurcation of the world into its “us” meaning The West(ern Hemisphere), versus everywhere else (The East — or Asia — plus Africa or “the Global South”), the differences will be accelerating separation between those two trading-blocs of the Western Hemisphere versus the rest of the world.
The U.S.-led bloc, the declining sole remaining empire, the U.S. empire, might continue or even increase, having the richest and the most billionaires, but unless the rest of the world will copy that model — of transferring wealth from the non-billionaires to the billionaires — the result outside the U.S. empire will be a reduction in the wealth-share by billionaires, and a consequent reduction in the proportion of GDP that is expended upon destruction (weapons etc.) (which are used for expanding the empire) and consequent increase in the percentage that is expended upon actual production. This far into Trump’s second term, NATO headlined on 7 July 2026, “Defence Investment Update: Record Spending in Europe and Canada” and reported (estimated), during the period since 2024, around a 40% annual military-expenses increase in ‘Defense’ (Aggression) spending, as compared to 2024 levels. This will be terrific for the billionaires. It will be increasing hell for everyone in the nations they covet, and it will mean, even throughout the empire itself, reductions in spending on health, education and welfare. Consequently, throughout the empire, there will be increasing public demonstrations, and rising crime-rates, as the consequences for the general public become increasingly manifest. The worse that things get, the more fanatical that the owners of the empire will be to increase it yet further. The internal clash is therefore inevitable.
—————
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.
