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The price of oil climbed to a four-year high on Thursday amid fears that the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz weren’t ending any time soon.
Both conflict and the shuttering of the chokepoint have disrupted supply, raising the cost of filling up a tank across the globe. But it is the oil-producing Gulf monarchies that are, perhaps, grappling hardests with the long-term implications of 2026’s Middle East war. And some are already looking to the future.
This week, the UAE announced that it was to exit OPEC, the cartel that sets production quotas, and therefore in theory, the global price of a barrel of crude. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, an expert in intra-Gulf politics, explains that the move by Abu Dhabi, although abrupt, wasn’t much of a surprise. “The announcement follows years of divergence between Emirati and Saudi oil policies, as well as the growth of competitive rivalries between the two countries over wider regional questions,” he writes.
It is nonetheless consequential. Industry watcher Adi Imsirovic explains that it signifies that “oil producers are no longer aligned around a single strategy.” In essence, this means some will be trying to keep prices high to protect their dwindling reserves, while others will want to ramp up production and cash-in while they can. In a separate article, David Roberts looks at that alternative ways Gulf states are looking to bypass Hormuz to get their oil
to market.
Elsewhere this week we have been evaluating King Charles's visit to the U.S. and wondering at the ping-pong skills of robot.
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Matt Williams
Senior International Editor – New York
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The Emiratis are poised to turn their back on their oil cartel buddies.
Karim Sahib/AFP via Getty Images
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have long been at odds over oil policy. The latest move is also likely to further their broader regional rivalry.
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Adi Imsirovic, University of Oxford
UAE wants to increase its production of oil beyond the quotas it is alloted by the oil-producing cartel.
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David B Roberts, King's College London
While the UAE and Saudi Arabia can at least partly circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, other Gulf states are less fortunate.
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Norman Sempijja, Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique; Mouhammed Ndiaye, Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique
The strength of armed groups doesn’t come only from weapons but also from how deeply they are embedded in local realities.
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Jonathan Roberts, Queensland University of Technology; Marc Portus, Queensland University of Technology
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Deana L. Weibel, Grand Valley State University
Astronauts report feeling profoundly awestruck when they go to space, an anthropologist reports. This experience shapes their perspectives even back on Earth.
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Guilherme Casarões, Florida International University; Carlos Ricaurte, Florida International University
The solutions they offer - economic shock therapy, militarized crackdowns and a lack of agency in foreign policy - are just old responses retooled with new aesthetics and a new international support network.
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Gemma Ware, The Conversation
Catholic peacebuilding expert Gerard F. Powers talks to The Conversation about the just war tradition.
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Claudio Bozzi, Deakin University
Even at the best of times, most seafarers face extremely difficult working conditions, while contending with geopolitical crises and unpredictable trade cycles.
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André O. Hudson, Rochester Institute of Technology
Advances in genetic engineering have enabled researchers to seek ways to program new life. But has synthetic biology actually changed medicine and the environment, nearly two decades on?
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Roger Fernandez-Urbano, Universitat de Barcelona; Maria Rubio-Cabañez, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Pablo Gracia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Adolescents’ digital risks are shaped by inequality.
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Sarah Olive, Aston University
The future of Shakespeare may well lie beyond the English language.
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