CAIRO –

Egypt sharply raised the stakes over the war in Sudan on Thursday, warning that any move threatening the country’s unity, state institutions or territorial integrity would cross Egyptian “red lines” and directly endanger its national security, as Cairo signalled it could act under international law and a joint defence agreement with Khartoum.

The unusually explicit warning came as Egypt hosted Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in what officials described as a decisive moment in Cairo’s approach to the conflict raging across its southern neighbour since April 2023.

In a six-point statement issued during Burhan’s visit, Egypt framed the Sudan war as no longer a purely internal crisis but a strategic threat with immediate regional consequences. Cairo stressed that Sudan’s security was “inextricably linked” to Egypt’s own, and that breaches of core red lines would not be met with leniency.

Egypt also voiced full support for what it described as US President Donald Trump’s vision for restoring “security, stability and peace” in Sudan, aligning itself with Washington and Saudi Arabia, both members of the so-called international Quartet mediating the conflict alongside Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Trump said last month he would “start working on Sudan” after the crisis was raised by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, though few concrete details of any initiative have yet emerged.

Cairo’s statement reflected growing alarm at the continued escalation of fighting, particularly reports of “horrific massacres” and widespread human rights violations against civilians, with El-Fasher in North Darfur singled out as a focal point of concern.

At the heart of Egypt’s warning was a firm rejection of any attempt to fragment Sudan or legitimise rival centres of power. Cairo said it would not accept the secession of any part of Sudanese territory, nor the establishment or recognition of “parallel entities,” a clear reference to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has declared a rival administration in parts of Darfur under its control.

Preserving Sudan’s state institutions, especially its army, was described as another non-negotiable red line. Egypt said it reserved “the full right” to take all necessary measures guaranteed by international law and by the joint defence agreement binding the two countries if those lines were crossed.

The language marked a shift towards what analysts described as “diplomatic decisiveness” by Cairo, reflecting an assessment that the Sudan war has moved from a protracted internal struggle to a destabilising conflict with existential implications for Egypt.

Since April 2023, Burhan has been locked in a brutal power struggle with his former deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, commander of the RSF, in what the United Nations has described as a “war of atrocities.” Diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled, fuelling fears of state collapse, territorial fragmentation and regional spillover.

For Egypt, the risks are acute. Officials privately point to two strategic pillars shaping Cairo’s stance: the survival of Sudan’s national institutions and the protection of Egypt’s long-term water security. A weakened or fragmented Sudan, Egyptian officials fear, could create openings for regional actors to impose faits accomplis in Nile water negotiations, including over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam.

Security concerns are equally pressing. Egypt shares a border of more than 1,200 kilometres with Sudan and has already absorbed waves of displaced people fleeing the conflict. Cairo has warned that the collapse of security along that frontier could turn it into a corridor for arms trafficking and militant infiltration, stretching Egypt’s defence and security budgets.

In parallel with its warnings, Egypt reiterated its commitment to political solutions through the international Quartet, calling for a humanitarian truce leading to a ceasefire, the creation of safe humanitarian corridors and the protection of civilians, all in coordination with Sudan’s recognised state institutions.

The timing of Burhan’s visit underlined the urgency. Fighting has intensified in recent weeks across several regions, including the three Kordofan states, triggering fresh displacement. The RSF controls most of Darfur, while the army holds much of the rest of the country, including Khartoum, though frontlines remain fluid.

Egypt’s intervention underscores how Sudan’s war is increasingly viewed in Cairo not as a distant crisis, but as a direct challenge to regional order. By publicly drawing red lines and invoking defence agreements, Egypt has signalled that its patience is wearing thin, and that further deterioration in Sudan could prompt a more assertive Egyptian response.