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Tensions in South Asia are at the highest notch they have been in decades. Drones, missiles and cross-border shelling have this week killed dozens in Pakistan and Indian-administered Kashmir, on top of the 26 tourists murdered there in late April – a terror act that set in motion the latest escalation.
The potential of a full-blown war between Indian and Pakistan has the region and the world on edge; after all, we are talking about two nuclear neighbors with leaders vowing revenge.
As Natasha Lindstaedt notes, the conflict has the capacity to “destablise Asia and beyond.”
“While neither country has used nuclear weapons in a conflict, there are always concerns that this norm may be broken. Both countries are nuclear powers with India holding 180 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan possessing about 170,” Lindstaedt adds.
Ayesha Jalal writes that Pakistan’s powerful military remains under pressure to respond in kind to India’s airstrikes. She notes that what army chiefs in Pakistan fear most is a “new normal” in relationships between the two countries, “one in which India will retaliate to any perceived Pakistani-linked terror attack with missile strikes on Pakistan’s territory.” Adding to the problem is the fact that there is no established
communication hotline bwtween India and Pakistan. This “prevents the two reaching a proper appreciation of shared vulnerabilities that is so critical to crisis de-escalation,” write Syed Ali Zia Jaffery and Nicholas John Wheeler.
In the middle of these two nuclear neighbors on war footing are the Kashmiris themselves. Since the April 22 terrorist attack, Kashmiris – who already live in one of the most heavily militarizes parts of the world – have been “subjected to an increased security presence, new lockdowns, ‘cordon and search operations,’ social media surveillance, house demolitions and other draconian measures,” writes Leoni Connah, whose research on Kashmir has seen her interview people living under such conditions.
“It is no wonder Kashmiris were saying ‘everyone lives in fear’, even before India launched missile strikes on its neighbor. Possible retaliation from Pakistan – or a wider war – now looms, with Kashmiris again on the front lines,” Connah adds.
Elsewhere this week, we have been digesting the news of a first pope from the United States and saluting our colleagues at The Conversation Africa, who celebrate 10 years of excellent academic journalism on the continent.
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