Last updated April 16, 2024 1:14 pm (EST)
Sudan has been engulfed in civil war since fighting erupted on April 15, 2023, between the nation’s military, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The violence has worsened an already precarious humanitarian situation, driving the spread of mass-starvation conditions. Meanwhile, neighboring countries have taken in more than one million refugees, risking broader destabilization across the Horn of Africa and Sahel regions.
What’s driving the conflict in Sudan?
The two warring parties were previously allies, having joined forces in 2019 to overthrow dictator Omar al-Bashir, who ruled for three decades before his ouster. The SAF’s leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, replaced him as de facto head of state. Burhan was backed by RSF General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, in orchestrating a second coup in 2021 that toppled Sudan’s interim government. But amid international pressure to transition to a civilian government, a push to integrate the RSF into the national army triggered a violent revolt from Hemedti in mid-April 2023. Fighting has been concentrated in and around the capital, Khartoum, the North and West Kordofan provinces, and the western Darfur region.
International efforts to broker peace talks or establish a caretaker government have been unsuccessful. These have included negotiations sponsored by the United States and Saudi Arabia, which resulted in at least sixteen failed cease-fires, as well as unsuccessful peace plans proffered by the African Union and other regional blocs. An Egypt-led conference with Sudan’s neighbors in July 2023 established humanitarian corridors and a framework for political dialogue, but it did not resolve the conflict, and both warring parties have hindered the delivery of aid, shutting down the corridors. Meanwhile, the Sudanese government has cut ties with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a bloc of East African countries, over its outreach to RSF leader Hemedti, and has banned several foreign media outlets from the country.
Negotiation efforts remain at a standstill, though the United States says it aims to resume peace talks. In April 2024, France hosted a humanitarian conference that collected more than $2 billion in pledges of additional international aid.
How bad is the humanitarian situation?
Sudan was already experiencing a grave humanitarian crisis before the conflict broke out, with more than 15 million people facing severe food insecurity and more than 3.7 million internally displaced persons. The country was also hosting some 1.3 million refugees, the majority from South Sudan.
But amid the ongoing wars in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, “Sudan keeps getting forgotten by the international community,” UN aid leader Martin Griffiths said in February 2024. According to the UN refugee agency, more than 8.6 million people have been forcibly displaced since April 2023. Of them, more than 6.6 million are internally displaced, while close to 1.8 million are refugees who have fled to neighboring countries. As of April 2024, more than fifteen thousand people have been confirmed killed in Sudan’s conflict, though the actual figure is likely to be considerably higher.
The conflict is destroying Sudan’s infrastructure. Air strikes and shelling have hit hospitals, prisons, schools, and other facilities in dense residential areas. The fear of disease is particularly acute, and health authorities have warned that cholera, dengue fever, and malaria are circulating in several states as health conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly and millions of people lack access to clean water. At the same time, rising food and fuel costs are exacerbating food insecurity, which currently affects nearly eighteen million people. The World Food Program says Sudan could become the site of “the world’s largest hunger crisis” without a cessation of hostilities. In total, almost twenty-five million people, or more than half of Sudan’s population, need aid and protection, according to UN estimates.