The purpose of this piece of writing is to analyze military involvement, the escalating level of unrest, and the military’s failure to stabilize the Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia through the theoretical models of game theory, frustration-aggression theory, and custodian theory.

Huntington is considered as the primary progenitor of custodian theory. According to Huntington’s 1968 book “Political Order in Changing Societies,” when a state’s constitution is breached, the state’s armed forces may step in to handle internal matters. Custodian theory is relevant to the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s (FDRE’s) military force intervention in the Amhara National Regional State. Following political uncertainty, conflict, and insecurity, which were difficult to manage by the regional security sectors, the FDRE’s military force has been intervening in the Amhara Region since 2018 and claiming responsibility for preserving the country’s and nations’ constitutions (reflection-conflict-amhara-region-ethiopia).

Nevertheless, the FDRE constitution of 1995 lacks legitimacy, and its making process was not inclusive. The ethnic groups of Amhara were not given representation when the constitution was being drafted. As a result, the constitution causes segregation of the Amhara ethnic groups and has not been securing Amhara from ongoing intimidation, eviction, and targeted slaughter by other ethnic groups (amhara-genocide-in-oromia-ethiopia-assessing-accountability).

Concerning this, through the lens of custodian theory, this essay argues that the Amhara ethnic groups have been disobedient to the constitution and are not cooperative with military force to defend it since the constitution itself is implicitly taken as the covenant of other ethnic groups to unite by narrated Amhara as the atrocity facilitator, dominant, and oppressed ethnic groups within the past regimes. However, Tewodros II (1855–1868) was the sole king of entirely Amhara descent since the beginning of Ethiopia’s Modern Period (1850)

Thereby, as the 1995 FDRE constitution has been considered to be the source of insecurity, Abiy Ahmed’s administrations cannot mitigate insecurity in the Amhara National Regional State as long as it is unwilling to revise the constitution by critically articulating the Amhara issues.

Since the adoption of the 1995 FDRE ethnic-based constitution, the Amhara ethnic groups have been subjected to ethnic cleansing and genocide in various parts of the country, such as Wollega, Raya, Wolkayit, Harar, Shashemene, Arsi, Dera, and Jimma, and so Amhara are now beginning to see this constitution as the real threat to its existence.

Accordingly, the FDRE military operation to defend the constitution in the Amhara region may turn into a crucial instance of the region’s conflict and violence intensifying, as well as a source of people’s refusal to cooperate with security agencies and provide their support to the Fano forces.

The other theory that has been described in the Regional State of Amhara is the frustration-aggression theory. In their work “Frustration and Aggression,”this theory was proposed by John, Neavl, Leonard, and Robert in 1939. This theory states that aggression is the result of frustration. This theory is used to explain revolutions and violence. When societies are marginalized, oppressed, and targeted for attack, they can express their frustration through aggression and violence.

The Amhara ethnic group’s case is supported by this theory. Due to the belief that the FDRE Military Force is the guardian of the totalitarian regime rather than the defender of fundamental rights, the Amhara ethnic community has become resentful toward the force. Currently, a number of studies, media sources, research projects, and reports demonstrate how the Amhara ethnic groups’ sense of irritation and violence have been fueled by the idea that the military is solely tasked with protecting the ruling elites.

This leads the youths to join the Fano rebel groups and communities to be the source of logistic for the Fano forces. After all, the military intervention has not been welcomed by the Amhara ethnic groups, and its interventions have been escalating frustration and aggression in the community and pushing them to find other ways out, such as being a member of Fano and supporting Fano. Such a phenomenon has been strengthening Fano and widening the playing field of insecurity (amhara-people-are-being-portrayed-as-the-enemy-the-dangerous-history-of-ethnic-politics).

Lastly, this writing utilizes game theory to support its claim that a variety of internal and external actors, including rebel groups, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the government, and neighboring countries, have contributed to insecurity in the Amhara National Regional State and have hampered efforts to military’s mission of restoration of security. Furthermore, these players have been engaging in nebulous interactions with one another in order to secure their own political agendas and interests. These interactions have been escalating insecurity, alarmingly, in the regional state and creating challenges for the FDRE Military Force’s task of bringing security.

Ways outs: 

1. If the politicians and ruling class truly want to keep Ethiopia in their hands, it is time to amend the constitution and reorganize the government in a way that the rights of citizens come first, majority rules are respected, and geographically based cooperative federalism is valued.
2. It is time to gather around a table and select the least desirable option if the ruling class and all political groups cannot agree upon what Ethiopian identity is all about. This implies that they must set up a transitional government that can assist agreements and decisions made by regional states to be sovereign, even though this led to the creation of several chaotic and feeble sovereign entities in the Horn of Africa, including Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray.
3. Holding nations and nationalities as Ethiopia by narrating Amhara as a common foe and marginalizing and segregating Amhara for the utility of nation-nationalities is not impossible since Amhara is coming as Amhara. Accordingly, compensating Amhara in justice, politics, and economy will also be the other way out of brining long-term sustainable security in Amhara National Regional State and Ethiopia.
4. Since July 2023, by citing Abiy’s attempt to dismantle Amhara Special Forces and Fano Forces within existing political uncertainty, mob justice, and ethnic cleansing, killing, and atrocities against the Amhara ethnic group in various parts of Ethiopia, the Amhara ethnic group’s guerrilla fighters, Fano, have been in active war with Abiy Ahmed’s administration. Following this, various international institutions have been urging both participatory actors to take part in dialogue for the purpose of peace restoration. But as of this moment, there has been no agreement between the combatants. Reiterating the Pretoria Pact with Fano forces is necessary if the Abiy Ahmed administration is sincere about reestablishing stability. This implies that it has to acknowledge the Amhara people’s reputation for Fano force and let it participate in the political system and assume federal office.