Isaac hesitates. Talking about politics in Ethiopia , "it's dangerous". "Here, democracy is only theory," he says on the campus of Jimma University in the Oromia region, 350 km from Addis Ababa. The 20-year-old student is Oromo, as more than a third of the Ethiopian population (94 million inhabitants). This community, the largest in the country, was at the forefront of the anti-government protest that began in November 2015.
In Jimma, students witnessed the crackdown on the demonstrations, which left hundreds dead across the country. Thousands of them protested on campus, some were beaten, others were arrested. "The Oromo have been oppressed for a long time" by the Tigrayan leaders, who include only 6% of the population, rattles Isaac. Despite his bitterness, he did not lose hope. For him, the next prime minister must be Oromo. His favorite is "Dr. Abiy". "I hope things will change if it's him," he says.
Ethiopia must appoint its new prime minister after the surprise resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15th. Traditionally, the coalition in powerfor twenty-seven years, the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has chosen among the presidents of its constituent parties, constituted on a community and regional basis. The candidates would be Shiferaw Shigute for the Democratic Movement of the Peoples of Southern Ethiopia (SEPDM, the party of the outgoing Prime Minister), Demeke Mekonnen for the National Amhara Democratic Movement (ANDM), Debretsion Gebremichael for the People's Liberation Front. of the Tigray (TPLF) - whose candidacy remains uncertain - and, finally, Abiy Ahmed Ali for the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization (OPDO).
The protégé of the "prophet"
"Dr. Abiy", vice president of the Oromia region, was appointed president of the OPDO on 22 February. A surprise announcement since the name of the president of the region - who was also that of the party - Lemma Megersa, was on everyone's lips. Appointed at the end of 2016 when Ethiopia had declared a first state of emergency - in effect until August 2017 - he and his team engaged in a series of highly regarded reforms. His popularity with the Oromo is such that some go so far as to call him a "prophet". "Lemma would have been the most unifying candidate, but he is not a member of Parliament and therefore not eligible," said an observer of politicsEthiopian, who sees in this decision a will of the party to eliminate any obstacle likely to prevent the appointment of a prime minister Oromo.
Especially since "Dr. Abiy", 41, is the "protégé of Lemma," thinks Hassan Hussein, editorialist for the Ethiopian information site Opride (based in the United States). "They share the same political goals: reforming the system, valuingthe Oromo and eliminating the underlying causes of the protests. " " His appointment would mark a crucial step for the EPRDF, particularly in the context of wider political reform [the government released thousands of prisoners since January], because it would not be perceived as a choice TPLF " accused of monopolizingKey positions in the government, army , security organs and administration, analyzes Ahmed Salim, vice president of Teneo Intelligence, a consulting firm specializing in political risk. Hailemariam Desalegn, he has never managed to get rid of his image of "puppet" leaders Tigrayan.
For a long time, the leaders of the OPDO, which holds a third of the seats in the lower house of Parliament, were accused of obeying the finger on the eye of the central government, especially the TPLF. "The party was hated. When people voiced their demands, they were harassed, imprisoned. But the OPDO is renewed, it is now on the side of the people ",wants to believe Dawit, a filiform student, leather jacket on the back. In a very tense context, the party had no choice but to bow to popular demands. A movement that has, however, allowed the new leadership to gain the confidence of protesters notch and disillusioned.
The EPRDF block broke publicly. The OPDO operated his "rebirth", likes to tell the mayor of Jimma Meriyu Mohamed. "We can not survive without reform because the country is in a critical situation," thinks the city councilor. There are, however, strong divisions within the coalition and within the different parties between change advocates and supporters of the status quo. ANDM and OPDO would house the most reformist camps that have distanced themselves from the EPRDF hard wing. On the front line, Lemma Megersa and her team, nicknamed the "Lemma Team", of which Abiy Ahmed Ali is a member.
"Abiy is the candidate of the people"
In the narrow market street of Jimma, where dressmakers are working on old sewing machines , Abdi, 27, explains why he respects these leaders. "People are more free to express themselves than before and are no longer seen as anti-peace elements , " he says. The "Lemma Team" started an "Oromo economic revolution" by working to reclaim some of the land grabbed by investors - the protesters' first demand - and launching a program to fight youth unemployment.
"The" Police Special "from the region became peaceful," added Abdi, highlighting the good relations of the soldiers in bright green mesh with the protesters, although different from those of the federal police and the army ed. "Abiy is the candidate of the people," says the designer, swearing that he does not have the support of the Oromo. Current Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen and former Education Minister Shiferaw Shigute are far from being seen as such. "They are part of the system," says a student.
Yet, Abiy Ahmed Ali is also part of the elite. As a teenager, he joined the armed struggle against the dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam. It was overthrown by a Marxist guerrilla, led by former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (TPLF). After the EPRDF came to power, "Dr. Abiy" followed a military education and then a more academic course in Ethiopia and South Africa . He then opted for a political career within the OPDO. Member of Parliament since 2010, he was part of the Hailemariam Desalegn government. Among her career achievements, we must count the creation and direction of one of the country's monitoring bodies, the Ethiopian Agency security of information networks (NHI).
An inconvenient popularity
The people of Agaro, the city where "Dr. Abiy" grew up, do not hold him to this past. Here, we already celebrate the child of the country, even if the games are far from being made. The meeting of the EPRDF executive committee, postponed several times, is scheduled to take place on Sunday, March 11, before the meeting of the coalition council at which the prime minister will be appointed. For the moment, no candidate seems to be unanimous. And the popularity of Abiy Ahmed Ali seems to disturb the governing bodies. "The kingmakers of the coalition do not like populism," thinks an observer, who believes that only a docile politician can be chosen.
For Genet Shigute, if "Dr. Abiy" is not designated, there will be consequences. "That's what the passengers of the minibus said," worries this elegant lady of 60 who hosted Abiy Ahmed Ali when he was a child. He attended school here, about 40 kilometers from Jimma. Genet remembers a charismatic boy who loved to lead and wanted to join the army at a very young age. "Now he's a politician with bodyguards," she notes. She assures that the young people of the region - who answer in the name of qeerroo ("unmarried boys", in Afaan oromo language) - are quieter thanks to Lemma and "Dr. Abiy". "They badly need these leaders," she wants to believe.
"The change of prime minister, I do not believe it. I do not see how a single individual can change the system, " says Yidnekachew, 24, at a café in Agaro, under the approving eye of a bunch of traders and drivers. For him, popular demands go beyond the community of origin of the next head of government. "We need a leader who can bring unity, equality, democracy," he adds. And not the new state of emergency approved by the lower house of Parliament on March 2nd. This decision resulted in demonstrations in the Oromia region that reportedly resulted in several deaths, and a three-day strike that ended on March 7, despite the ban on demonstrations.prevails. Of the 547 deputies, only 88 voted against the state of emergency, seven abstained. "Dr. Abiy" was not present at the parliamentary session.
