Dehai

https://ericzuesse.substack.com/p/why-irans-strategy-focuses-on-driving  

https://theduran.com/why-irans-strategy-focuses-on-driving-trumps-u-s-approval-rating  

Why Iran’s Strategy FOCUSES on Driving Trump’s U.S. Approval-Rating Down

19 August 2026, posted by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)

https://www.youtube.com/live/rjDLVp_sqDM?t=117s

“IRAN BOMBS UAE, ISRAEL ATTACKS TURKISH MILITARY – w/ Prof. Robert Pape”

Mario Nawfal, 18 August 2026

(1:57) PAPE: Let me give you my take on what's been happening not just today … but for the last few weeks … it's really been the puzzle of Iran. And here's what my take is, Mario, on what's happening. Iran is seizing the initiative. Trump has passed the initiative. He’s, uh, this is what he means by patience. It looks very much like strategic paralysis. Iran has seized the initiative, but it's not just in a narrow sense. They're revealing, I believe, their strategy, Iran's strategy for the US midterms. And that's what I wrote about on today's Substack. What is Iran's strategy for the midterms and what is happening with this seizing of the initiative? Now, in any strategy, there are means and there are ends. It's a means ends chain. That's what strategy is all about. It's not just tools. I think that what you are seeing, Mario, is Iran's goal between now in the midterms is to break America's will to fight Iran after the midterms and to do so by breaking the Trump presidency. So, I think they have a fairly coherent political goal to break America's will to attack Iran again after the midterms by breaking the Trump presidency in the midterms. Now, that loss for Trump, of one or now it looks like both houses of Congress, is already devastating for Trump. There'll be uh hearings uh subpoena power uh for the Democrats. And if Iran can build the clear picture that the Iran war was a critical element in Trump's defeat, this not only leads to the Democrats shutting down money and resources for the Iran war. This sends a powerful message to any future American leader, future president, but really leader period: Don't attack Iran again. So that's where the goal comes in. Now let me develop the means, because I think what you see is Iran has two daggers, not just one dagger, that they are displaying and they're developing more and more. Dagger number one is to raise costs, keep costs high and get even higher on the American population by increasing gas prices. And to do that, keeping Hormuz shut as a unilateral matter. Keeping it shut. That's why they're raising all these impossible-to-meet demands. They don't want these demands met. I bet if if President Trump were to agree to the six points here, I bet they'll invent another six points. The goal here is not the goal, is again I'm laying out the STRATEGY. I believe you are watching in real time as it unfolds. So point number one, dagger number one, means to keep Hormuz closed in order to keep gas prices high. If they can get them up higher, they're going to be good for that. If they can get interest rates higher, good for that. They just want costs to go up on the American consumer. And right now, you're I'm sure you track the details on things like the American uh opinion polls. There's been new NORC polls. I I work at the University of Chicago. NORC's [that’s the National Opinion Research Center] at the University of Chicago. So we we like NORC, and uh they're very good. Uh the fact is that 72% of Americans today say the number one goal in American foreign policy, the number one goal is lowering gas prices in American foreign policy. [That’s buried on page 17 of the AP/NORC survey findings, regarding the question: “FP6. Thinking about the foreign policy goals of the United States, please tell us how important it is for the United States to do each of the following:” 72% chose  “Prevent U.S. oil and gas prices from rising.”] Think about that. This is what I mean by Iran's got the dagger. They're moving on the right dagger here. I don't like it, by the way. But we’ve got to diagnose the second big dagger. And this gets to the offensiveness of the strategy. Why are they going on the offensive and attacking? It's not just militaries being military. So some people are going to say, "It's just militaries being mil." No, this is part, I believe we're seeing a strategy here. the core extra element of a coercive strategy, and this is what is bombing to win. So, we haven't really talked about the the logics of bombing to win. So there's more than just like air operation. Bombing to win is a coherent theory of coercion, how you coerce states. And it's not costs alone that matter. What matters are costs COMBINED WITH belief there's no chance for victory. That's why my book is called bombing to win. Once you are a target of coercion and you face costs, you have a choice. Do you give in or not? Well, if you believe you have a chance of resurrecting, of coming back, of winning in the future, you largely accept those costs. Mario, this is one of the things we've talked about on the edges, but when do the costs really bite, Mario? When you believe you're paying costs and you're going to lose anyway. There's no strategy to dig yourself out. That's what I call the futile pointless uh paying of costs. It's literally pointless. That's when my studies show states give in. And I think that's why what Iran is doing is a two-pronged double dagger uh set of means. One is drive up costs, keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The second is send the message that reinforces what many people already believe, which is: Trump has no strategy for victory, at all. So, what they're doing is seizing the initiative, and they're showing by their attacks Trump has no way out. He has no strategy here. Now, there's a final point to this strategy, and this is what I think you're really seeing. Why now? Why do this right now? It's because I think what Iran is doing in a most macro sense, so let's kind of uh, you know, understand the strategy now. Now that we've laid out the details and the pillars, in the most macro sense, what they're doing is they are trying to force Trump to fight the escalation trap. They want Trump to fight. In other words, they are seeing, and you have on your show Montgomery, others, and this isn't just your show, it's basically all the shows saying, Sean Spicer, you know, others, that Trump's going to attack after the midterm. See? Wink wink. We — We got it. We, we REALLY got it, folks. What Iran is doing with this midterm strategy, Mario, is they're forcing Trump to go EARLIER than he wants to go. They want him to go earlier than he wants to go because they believe that if Trump escalates before the midterms, that's going to bury Trump. They believe, and so does Trump by at least by the people that we see on the social media Sean Spicer etc. So this isn't these these uh this strategy I think is a strategy for them not just to defeat American military in a narrow sense, they're looking to score a GRAND STRATEGIC DEFEAT Mario, one for the long history books where once this defeat has been uh has been inflicted and it leads leads to wrecking Trump politically. Now they're in a position where whatever they do in the future, go nuclear, do more leverage over UAE, they are in the catbird seat for as far as the eye can see. And that's what I think you're seeing over the last few weeks pretty much since it starts to emerge in the middle of July, Mario. And pieces of it start to emerge. This is where the Houthies come in. This is why the Houthies are. So, there's there's a coherence to this, Mario. And I'm trying to explain that there's a real logic here. And I think that this is, this is why as bad as the war has been and as much trouble as as we have been in in this war, I think we're going to be in a lot more trouble because Iran sees it's not just they're playing the long game. They're saying the more they can bait Trump into more trouble, the better off they are in the long term. And if they do succeed in doing that, if they succeed in dragging Trump back into war before the midterms to cause him more political damage, then there's a higher likelihood he also loses the Senate and not just the House. >> Yes. And then that kneecaps him and his ability to continue the war after the midterm. So >> exactly >> they're preventing him from striking the midterm. >> That's right. In the war what they're doing is a baiting strategy. Mario. >> So in IR in war sometimes you bait your opponent into punching you. Um Muhammad Ali used to call it the rope a dope. So he you you you you bait the opponent into doing things and for a few rounds it hurts. So Muhammad Ali he’d have all these bruises. Okay. But you know what would happen after a few rounds? His opponents were exhausted and he just knocked him out. I mean they they he he they expended >> incredible to watch >> and and everybody's saying why is he taking this beating you see? And that's where, by the way, the Rocky movies, that's what the Rocky, that's exactly the same idea. >> And he goes, he goes, "Is that all you got?" And then I think against Frasier and then just keeps taking him. >> Yep. >> And then when Fraser is done, he's like, "You're in trouble now." And then just destroys him. >> Yeah. You're you're too young to be able to remember those quotes. I was alive to watch them and stayed up and watched them when I was a little boy. >> No one No one's too young for Muhammad Ali. >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. But this is what it is. It's the Muhammad Ali rope a dope strategy where it's enticing and it's so hard to resist because they're going to drive this home. They're not. This is a — This is the They're taking the initiative to do this, Mario. And so they're not sitting back. Uh this isn't just they're they're they're looking for a better deal down the road and so forth. They're again they're setting up a strategy, a coherent means ends chain where they control the timing of the battle they want to fight. And the whole point is if Trump doesn't go before the midterms, he won't be able to go after the midterms because the Democrats will shut it down. They will shut it down. And you know what? If this strategy works, >> we may see something that that seems right now almost impossible to believe, but that a third of Republicans will side with the Democrats because once Trump is the ultimate loser >> and he looks like Joe Frasier, the old guy, he's just worn out. Everybody's gonna say just like they said to Joe Biden. >> Time to go out to pasture, Joe. Time to go out. We're gonna And just what the they'll lie to Trump. Just like they lied to Biden. And they told Biden when you step aside, we got your back. We're going to protect you. And look at what happened to Biden. >> And it's not only they they they you know, one option is to bait the Americans to striking the Iranians and depleting their munitions further. Another one is not even baiting them, remain stay with the status quo. What happens to oil prices eventually if they keep intercepting ships either way in this, in this strategy I'm laying out for you? They win either way because if Trump doesn't actually counter escalate then you're just explain and by the way I've been spending the last two days writing working on this and then that's why I didn't even know about the UAE attack [that Mario had told him about at the start of the show] and then you tell me they this is I mean how much this is like a perfect test you know so they're attacking the UAE they're not waiting for the UAE, and by the way, this has multiple uh ways in which this works in their advantage. Either you get the counter escalation from Trump before the midterms, or you don't and they just keep piling away and what happens is the price of oil keeps going up because when they're hitting the UAE, that's one of the bypasses that's been helpful to keep the price of oil down. >> Exactly. >> So this is you you've got they're taking, they're they're they're trying to take away the Saudi bypass uh with the Houthies. Now they're taking away the Fujara bypass with the UAE. They're they're doing it incrementally and over time they're in a win-win situation. If they if Trump decides to let it ride and he's just going to sit on his hands, then the prices will go up, their initiative will go up. And these two prongs that I'm trying to explain that are the real daggers and triggers — number one cost on your target which is the American population here, but number two the belief that your resistance is futile, that it's you have no strategy for for winning. Once you believe your probability of military success goes virtually to zero, why are you bothering to pay the costs, what's the point — that's how America America lost the Vietnam War. We pulled out because the public came to two conclusions. They saw the the the costs were going up, Mario, for 10 years and got to 58,000 dead. Think about that. And still there was a lot of support for the war until what? Until the public came to a second separate conclusion. This happened during the Tet offensive. It's it's 1968 January. We can go through the details, but the public came to a second conclu separate conclusion that Johnson had no strategy. He had no way to win and he wasn't going to have a way to win. They had given Johnson every chance. And look at the American public here. The public Trump has had every opportunity for six months to run the war his way. No one's blocking him. He's he's got he's had full cart blanche, a blank check, to do anything he wants. He can escalate up, escalate sideways. He can stop for a while. There's nobody pressuring him. That's going to change with the midterms if the Iranians have anything to say about it. >> But what happened in Vietnam before the the US eventually pulled out was uh Nixon, you know, it kept escalating, escalating up to a stage where Nixon reportedly considered nuking Vietnam. And now we're seeing reports that I'm still, you know, maybe I'm wrong, but I'm still not taking them as seriously as maybe I should. But a lot of people including Marjorerie Taylor Green now saying that there's discussions, serious discussions about nuking Iran. Is that something that worries you that if the Iranians put Trump in enough of a corner, he may consider tactical nukes? >> Let me put a percentage on it because that's a way to sort of gauge this. >> It can't be double digits. >> So when we started Yeah. When we started the war in February 28, if you had asked me what are the odds that the United States is going to escalate to the use of nuclear weapons, I would have said uh it's it's well it's like 3% 2%. It's not really zero. Today maybe I would put it at 8 or 9% a bit higher because he's so desperate. And he's also done a second thing, Mario, which is he has in the last few months, especially with Pam Bondi, but he has uh he has fired um his some of his leading cabinet members who have stood in his way and not followed through on some of these more extreme demands he's making to prosecute. Well, these aren't just that. He's got extreme demands on a variety of different issues, not just prosecuting his enemies. And so, um, Pete Hegseth has been replacing general after general, admiral after admiral. Uh, this has been going on for some time. It's it's not it's gotten a little attention, but not a lot of attention. And it's because it's been kind of overshadowed with issues of race and gender and transgender. It's also just inside baseball stuff that people have a really hard time following the Donaghue thing. I mean, this is just so difficult, Mario, for um even the experts to follow because they just don't have the inside knowledge of what's going on across the table with these uh these individuals. But that said, there has been a pattern and that pattern is to get uh not just general yes men, not just good enough. You voted for Trump, you want Trump, you to want deport — all the things that were checked the box. This is what you know whatever Trump says and if he tells you to jump to the moon, you’ve got to figure out how to jump to the moon. Doesn't matter. You can't get to the moon. That part just not not interesting to Trump. So I think that this is so all that together means my estimate on the use of the nuclear has gone up. Um but the reason I think that it's so unlikely is because the uh the consequences here uh for um American foreign policy if we thought that starting this war was bad and and Iran would take Hormuz, the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons will make this look like uh like like mana from heaven. This will this there will be so and this will go on and on. This will not, the the because the question is going to be for the rest of the world and also the US public but the rest of the world not just how Trump could order the use of the nuclear weapon but why the Pentagon allowed him to do it, why there weren't guard rails why the Democrats didn't fall on their sword run out to the runways in front of those B2s you and stand in the way of them taking off the rest of the world is not going to sit there and understand oh sure yeah we just let the president make these decisions and the rest of us just have to no the world won't understand that they will blame America not just President Trump and this is going to be in a major major way and then also of course uh many many people we're already worried I'm already writing pieces on my professor Pape substack about the dominoes of nuclear proliferation uh you know Iran Saudi Arabia that's that part so this this is we already have a chain reaction that's underway with nuclear proliferation. The United States, which is supposed to be the number one protector of the non-proliferation treaty. For decades, we've said what counts as a rogue state. A rogue state is someone that's building nuclear weapons when they shouldn't. And then here we, the United States, will use nuclear weapons. Well, the NPT, you this this it's not just the NPT goes away and has no meaning anymore. It's that the rest of the world realizes, well, wait a minute. What if some American, and we don't even know who that would be in, you know, four, six, eight years, wakes up one day and just simply decides that they're going to use the nuclear weapon in their neighborhood. >> How is — See, so there's too much the the consequences of this >> [NAWFAL gets right to it, which Pape wants not to do.] bury. It would bury Trump. It would bury Trump. It would bury his legacy. It would bury America’s standing in the world. The consequences  —  this is, as you said [not yet; Pape didn’t actually say it], this is incomparable to what we're seeing right now. (24:15) …

MY COMMENT:

Pape nodded yes to what Nawfal said, but didn’t actually say it; Pape just danced around it. Then Nawfal said it, and Pape nodded yes. Obviously, there is an unspoken ban against saying the truth about the U.S. Government — BOTH Parties of it. Pape said “Let me put a percentage on it” (the likelihood that Trump would go nuclear against Iran) but he never did “put a percentage [probability]” on it, except to say that his estimation of the percentage was rising to maybe double-digits. Americans are simply in denial of the reality. Trump is LIKELY to go nuclear against Iran. Everyone should be SHOUTING about this. If Trump nukes Iran, then this country — not MERELY Trump — would be to blame. That’s why I headlined on August 7th, “Why the Trump Administration Must Be Replaced Immediately”. There hasn’t even been a serious impeachment resolution proposed in the U.S. House. The whole Congress — both Parties — are guilty. Is Trump our Führer? There were assassination attempts against Hitler — and not by crazies. Tragically, none succeeded. (Note: just like in Hitler’s case, Trump had been democratically elected, and the electoral result was what billionaires had wanted.)

—————

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.