Hotbeds of war tend to flare up almost everywhere, and the African powder keg is an emblematic and alarming demonstration, even if constant. Thus also the Horn of Africa , after the complex and diluted process of decolonization that began after the end of the Second World War , has never found a socio-political balance , and after ephemeral simulations of pauses from the conflicts, is now again in fibrillation due to the complex dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia . In fact, the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki , or rather the master of Eritrea, who has been governing the country with necessary authoritarianism since its independence from Ethiopia obtained in 1991 , after 30 years of war ( 1961-1991 ) – but recognized by the United Nations in 1993 – last week threatened the Ethiopian border with the possibility of the reopening of hostilities . I recall that the two countries signed a peace agreement in 2018 , but their relations have again seriously deteriorated since the end of the war in Tigray in 2022. The two countries also fought each other between 1998 and 2000 .
Relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa have always been tense even in moments of apparent peace , but they took on “ truce-like connotations ” in 2018 with the arrival in power in Ethiopia of Abiy Ahmed Ali , who, thanks to his commitment to pacifying his country with Eritrea, received, in my opinion undeservedly, the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However, peace with Eritrea laid the foundations for the questionable Nobel Peace Prize, for the opening of a conflict against the Ethiopian region of Tigray , a tragic civil war against this region bordering Eritrea and which ended in 2022 with the Pretoria Agreement . In this war, the Eritrean army fought alongside the military forces of Addis Ababa. But today the scenario has changed, and the Tigray People 's Liberation Front led by Debretsion Gebremichael, it seems, would ally itself with Eritrea in the event of a conflict .
Furthermore, Abiy Ahmed declared that the loss of access to the sea after Eritrea's secession from Ethiopia was a huge historical mistake . Ahmed is also the actor of the most risky water crisis on the African continent caused by the construction on Ethiopian territory of the mega-reservoir Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam ( GERD ), on the Blue Nile , which is affecting the flow of the river both in Sudan and Egypt and whose inauguration is scheduled in the coming months (started in 2011 ). The head of the Ethiopian government has long wanted to build a commercial port and a naval base on the Eritrean coast , possibly in the port of Assab . The fact that this crisis between the two neighboring states is at a high level of criticality is demonstrated by Abiy Ahmed's trips to Europe that began at the end of May. Thus, the unscheduled visit of the Ethiopian Prime Minister to Paris and Rome , was aimed at obtaining support , even a sort of “backing”, in the event of a war against Eritrea. Ahmed met Emmanuel Macron in Paris on May 22 , where he reported on the growing tension with Asmara . The two leaders had met in December in Addis Ababa, where Macron had attended the inauguration of the Jubilee Palace . They then met again in April at the Elysée in order to assess the possibilities of strengthening economic cooperation . Ahmed then flew to Rome where he concluded his European tour .
The two destinations have a strategic value as they should guarantee Ethiopia the support of the European Union . In theory, France, according to Ethiopian diplomatic strategies, should work towards Germany to endorse Addis Ababa's programs ; while the credibility of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni should regulate contacts with governments , not only European ones, that are more sensitive to national identity and sovereignty . In practice, the determining factor of this tour was to sound out " friendly " countries , or those with which there are important economic relations , in the event of a new war with Eritrea. Furthermore, in Rome Ahmed had a summit with the Webuild company , led by Pietro Salini , one of the companies most involved in the Gerd. The Ethiopian leader also met with the new Pope , Leo XIV , generally trying to urge investors to return to Ethiopia.
In reality, there is a general consensus in Europe on Ethiopia's need to have access to the sea , however beyond the consensus , no European politician has ever given a concrete answer on how to diplomatically achieve this goal . Ahmed is therefore looking for allies in a position to negotiate with Eritrea, as Turkey is doing between Ethiopia and Somalia , following the diplomatic crisis linked, once again, to the desire to possess a port and a naval base , this time in Berbera , in the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland, a former British colony independent from Somalia since 1991, but not recognized by Somalia or the international community . But Turkey is also the main supplier to the Ethiopian army of drones used in the Amhara region , which also massacre civilians . Furthermore, the Ethiopian cause is also supported by the United Arab Emirates who support Addis Ababa for a possible war against Eritrea. In addition, General Birhanu Jula Gelalcha , Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Force , went to Moscow a few days ago to meet with senior Russian Army officials ; Ahmed also has important relations with China .
However, the priority remains to secure European support , at least politically, in a context of very high probability that Ethiopia and Eritrea will return to war . But the reality is that the Ethiopian regime, despite its imperialist ambitions , is on the brink of bankruptcy , and is seeking large-scale sources of financing . The International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) aid program, launched in July 2023 , has planned this June the disbursement of a new tranche of at least 265 million dollars ; a sum not sufficient to curb the widespread poverty that is afflicting Ethiopia. To date, according to a report by the Ethiopian Economic Association published on May 22 , over a quarter of the population, out of 129 million inhabitants , suffers from acute poverty , with strong tendencies to worsen. Ethiopia, in this complex regional condition and in light of internal critical issues , such as civil warfare in the regions of Amhara and Oromia , accompanied by total violations of human rights , with the opening of a conflict with Eritrea can only worsen its general condition and favor the crumbling of the precarious foundations that laboriously support the Horn of Africa . Remembering the dramatic situation that neighboring Somalia suffers also due to the presence of the jihadist organization of Al-Shabaab , which undermines every attempt at socio-political stabilization of the region.
A possible war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which would foment a further game of alliances on a geopolitical level , would be triggered in a crisis scenario where the presence of the unstable neighbour Yemen would contribute to increasing the spectre of a globalised war throughout the Middle East .
