Eritrea are amassing forces on both sides of the border in preparation for a potential war. This reveals the extent of tension between the two sides, in contrast to the improvement in their relationship following Abiy Ahmed's rise to power in Addis Ababa and their subsequent alliance in the Tigray war.

Disagreements between the two countries have surfaced since the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). They escalated after Ethiopia sought a Red Sea port and the Azerbaijani shipping crisis deepened. Last November, Eritrea stopped three Azerbaijani arms ships bound for Ethiopia after they violated its territorial waters near the port of Bilul. The weapons were subsequently confiscated, in light of Addis Ababa's reneging on an agreement to compensate the Eritrean army for losses in the Tigray war. Asmara had provided military equipment worth $160 million.

Following this incident, former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome wrote an article last February that sparked heated controversy in Eritrean and Ethiopian circles. Experts described it as a prelude to a new war with Asmara. Last March, Ethiopian Army Commander Berhanu Jula stated that his country was working to reclaim its historic ports to return as a striking force in the Red Sea. This was a reference to reclaiming the Eritrean ports it lost in 1993, after Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia. This aligns with the strategy of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who believes his country has the right to a seaport and a military base to establish "Ethiopian naval forces." He believes that Meles Zenawi's government committed a historic mistake by recognizing Eritrea's independence, depriving Ethiopia of "strategic advantages." Asmara considered this a "declaration of war" and an attempt to violate its sovereignty.

The matter did not stop there. In a leaked statement by Abiy Ahmed—which Ethiopian authorities did not deny—during a meeting with members of the ruling party, he explained that his government had signed strategic arms deals that would protect the country from states lying in wait for it, specifically Eritrea and another country. He threatened to turn the Eritrean capital, Asmara, into a "new Gaza" if it took any aggressive action. He indicated that Ethiopia's opening of a drone factory was a milestone in achieving its military goals and would guarantee its superiority over its competitors.

This leak exposed Ethiopia's aggressive intentions towards Eritrea and others, revealing the development of its military capabilities in preparation for waging wars in the Horn of Africa or the Nile Basin. The theory is that engaging in an external war strengthens national unity and calms internal crises, even if temporarily. What is striking is that this has been a consistent course in Ethiopian politics since the emergence of the modern state, i.e., provoking external wars to calm internal crises. The ruling Ethiopian elite seeks to expand at the expense of neighboring peoples, making Addis Ababa a constant source of tension and regional instability over time. Therefore, it is not unlikely that Ethiopia will resort to igniting a war with Eritrea or Somalia, in light of its intention to control or occupy ports belonging to Somalia and Eritrea, in response to its ambitions to control the landlocked country's seaports and dominate it, and to unite the Ethiopian people, who are torn apart by civil wars between their various ethnicities. In any case, Addis Ababa is indifferent to the risks of violating the sovereignty of neighboring countries and attacking them. It wants to force Eritrea to negotiate over the port of Assab, or occupy its territory. It may then negotiate under the banner of Ethiopia's historical claims to ownership of the port, drawing inspiration from the Israeli lesson.

Ethiopia has its sights set on water, both the river and the sea. Therefore, Sadiqan Gebre Tsensay, Deputy Prime Minister of the Tigray Regional Government, warned that war between Addis Ababa and Asmara is imminent, and that preparations for it have reached advanced stages. He pointed out that if war breaks out, it will spread to other countries, and after that, the geography of the countries will not remain the same, but rather the entire Horn of Africa, the Red Sea region, and beyond will witness a major political reorganization. He was referring to Addis Ababa's occupation of the Eritrean port of Assab. In response, the Eritrean government refuted the Ethiopian allegations, through Yemane Gebre Meskel, Minister of Information, who confirmed that a state of war obsession is sweeping some political circles in Addis Ababa. He said, "We are witnessing daily an escalation in historical distortions and fallacies, and a blatant rejection of the provisions of international law, in the context of justifying illegal goals such as the possession of ports and sovereign territories." He warned against the consequences of being drawn into war, as it would destabilize the entire region. While armed conflict seems likely, the last thing a country like Ethiopia needs is colonialism or a foreign war. An exhausted country on the verge of collapse due to divisions and armed conflicts, Abiy Ahmed is waging a war against the opposition in the Oromia, Amhara, Benishangul, and Tigray regions bordering Eritrea. If war breaks out with Asmara, the armed movements in these regions will find an opportunity to declare independence from the federal government, based on Article 39 of the constitution, which allows for the right to self-determination. This could ignite an Ethiopian-Ethiopian war. Therefore, it is better for everyone for Addis Ababa to stop its ambitions in the Red Sea and the Nile waters, and to spare the neighboring peoples the scourge of war. Most importantly, it should not forget that its army is exhausted and unfit. If Eritrea defeats it—as it did in the past—it could topple Abiy Ahmed, reshape the Ethiopian state, or even lead to its complete collapse and disintegration into mini-states, something no one hopes for!