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Impact of Sudan’s internal conflicts on regional stability: A deep dive into South Sudan’s economic and political landscape.

Mohamed Badawi

07 April 2024

The Republic of South Sudan, marking its independence from Sudan on July 11, 2011, emerged as a sovereign nation following a referendum stipulated in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). However, this separation led to complex territorial delineations, shared borders, and strained political relations between the two entities.

Unfortunately, the newly formed Republic of Sudan, under an ideological dictatorship, overlooked the nation’s diversified economic potential, primarily focusing on its oil and land resources. These resources not only fueled the military budget but also became entangled in internal conflicts against the SPLM and the protracted Darfur War, which had commenced prior to the 2005 agreement.

Post-separation, South Sudan, having secured control over a significant 75% share of the oil reserves discovered in 1997, confronted multifaceted challenges in managing its newfound wealth amidst pervasive corruption and political volatility. Consequently, the nation’s reliance on oil revenue became alarmingly pronounced, accounting for an overwhelming 90% of its national budget.

The Republic of South Sudan further grappled with internal strife, notably in 2013 and 2016, coupled with a conspicuous absence of a cohesive national development agenda. This exacerbated the country’s dependency on oil exports, mirroring the practices of its northern counterpart, Sudan, without instituting adequate safeguards against potential external disruptions.

The vulnerability of South Sudan’s economy was further accentuated by the outbreak of the conflict on April 15, 2023. Since 2012, South Sudan had been reliant on Sudan’s international airspace codes, leading to substantial financial repercussions due to the closure of Sudanese airspace. The estimated financial losses for South Sudan amounted to a staggering 500,000,000 Swiss Francs or approximately 600,000,000 USD within a mere ten-month span of the conflict.

Additionally, the strategic oil infrastructure of South Sudan, including vital installations like the Alalafoun  Station, was attacked in October 2023; then due to the attacks on the Al-Jaili Station located in Khartoum Bahari the Sudanese Minster of  Energy Minster has informed the South Sudanese Government about the loss on their oil at Al-Jaili Petroleum  Refinery  Station which reached to 210 barrel of oil in addition to 7000 million barrels of crude oil, South Sudan produces around 103.67  cured oil barrel a day the market prices reaches to $ 81 to the cured barrel, which the South Sudan loss since November 2023 is reached to $8,397,37 per month, this in mind that South Sudan to became targets amidst the Sudanese conflict. The resultant disruption in oil flow precipitated economic crises, contributing to heightened inflation rates and exacerbating fiscal challenges. This economic downturn further manifested in delayed salary disbursements for the nation’s armed forces, straining morale and operational capacities.

The destabilizing raid by the Rapid Support Forces on Sudan’s currency printing facility in Khartoum on May 23, 2023, led to extensive looting and disrupted the established economic framework.

Sudan’s internal conflicts have ramifications beyond its borders, significantly impacting regional stability and economic trajectories. As the international community navigates the intricate geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, it becomes imperative to recognize and address the intertwined challenges faced by South Sudan and other neighbouring nations, striving for collaborative solutions to foster sustainable growth and stability.

  *Smoke rises from Sudan’s capital as conflict grips Khartoum on May 19, 2023 (AFP photo)