---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: tecle abraham habtemicael <tecle001_at_yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, Sep 16, 2016 at 8:36 AM
Subject: posting an article
To: "dehai_at_dehai.org" <dehai_at_dehai.org>
dear admin,
I would be grateful if you can post the attached article.
yours truly
Tecle Abraham habtemicael
Ethiopia: the unmaking of the minority TPLF regime
By Tecle Abraham Habtemicael
Ethiopia is experiencing a huge upheaval never seen during the 25 year
of the minority TPLF regime`s brutal reign. The political revolt is
coming in the midst of worsening economic, political and social
problems that are making the live of the average citizens unbearable.
The people have had enough and are demanding a fundamental change, not
short of the removal of the regime. In a normally constituted
democratic government such an upheaval would have lead yielding to the
demand of the people or even resignation. But the ruling governemnt
is rather strangely constituted in such a way to maximise its minority
ethnic domination and thus the demands being a menace to its reign,
the possiblity of political resolution is not foreseen. It is
therefore more likely this resistance would transform itself into
violent confrontation as a reaction to the regime`s attempt to crush
the protest using force. Under this perspective the loyality of the
army and the operational capability of the armed opposition would
determine the nature and outcome of the resistance.
When the TPLF entered Addis Abeba revengefully and assumed power, few
had dreamt that TPLF would be such a nightmare to the people of
Ethiopia. Despite everything, the people gave it the benefit of
doubt, that over time it would be fair, rational and realistic in the
distribution of power and wealth. But, it did the exact opposite and
instead become more entrenched and repressive. It was indeed a
dangerous gamble and the TPLF loves to gamble big way . Imagine a
country where the 6% Tigrai minority dominating the political,
economic power and their representation in state institutions remains
predominant even after 25 years. In the most important institutions
of the Army and security agents the Tigrains rather dominate the top
brass completely. The same can be said to the distribution of wealth.
Even the federal structure suppossed to devolve real power to the
states is superficial and is not benefiting the Nationality states.
All the real representatives of the respective nationalities are
displaced by puppets who are under the tutelage of the TPLF and assume
no real power. The Oromia and Amhara which constitute more than 70 %
of the population are systematically marginalized , whom the regime
sees as a threat to its contiued rule ( the first as narrow
nationalist and the latter as the nostaligic neftegna). As the case
with typical minority regimes, it is paranoid - the more resistance it
faces, the more it become dependent on its kins and get more
respresive. Reform and poltical relaxation is therefore not an
agenda in such a regime.
After 25 years of brutal reign, the minority regime is though
seriously challenged by the people of Ethiopia for freedom, justice
and equality. Those who closely follow the genesis of this backward
and brutal TPLF regime are not surprised that the volcanoe has finally
violently erupted. Like a dormant volcanoe, it was unstable from its
foundation :- It is a minority regime and brutal and backward at
that. This huge upheaval happening barely over one year after the
scandalous sham election victory, not only exposes the true nature of
this minority regime but also an emergence of rupture in its system of
control. With its brutal security and organizational measures, the
regime has been quite successful in crushing previous upheaval in
Oromia and elsewhere, but not this time. The Oromia wide upheaval is
rumbling for more than nine months. Then quite unexpectedly the
Amhara people`s upheaval came, which is gaining momentum and evolving
into total mobilization. In many areas the people have been able to
dismantle the local adminstrative arms of the regime, denying it the
means of control and supervision. In some areas Tigrains, especially
those apparachitiks of the System, have been targeted and many have
indeed fled to their own state. No doubt the regime was scared by
the course of events. What was even more worrying to the regime was
the fact that these supposedly belligerent communities demonstrated
their solidarity to each other and to some extent coordinating their
resistance. This is indeed unprecedented and a clear demonstration of
the regime`s divide and rule policy is cracking.
The gravity of the situation and the threat to its reign is not lost
to the regime. Considering the predicament the regime finds iself
and its wish to be seen as a government in control, no one expect it
to openly tell the truth, but the traces are there all to see. The
former TPLF chief of Staff general Tsadkan, for example, admitted
openly the looming danger and even suggested unless the demand of the
people are somehow addressed adequately, it could lead not only to the
destruction of the ruling regime but also the country as well. That
is as much an admission you can possibly get from a Ex-TPLF official
whose concern for his party is no different from his kins in power.
To his credit though he has specified the symptom of the underlying
problems to the extent of his intention in stark contrast to the
problems cited by the EPDRF executive committe. One can not help
notice the mismatch between what the people really demand and what the
minority regime would like to portray as the cause of the people`s
upheaval. What that means is that the people`s demand is not going to
be politically resolved and instead the regime will try its utmost to
crush it using security forces and the killing and arresting of
thousands of people in the pprocess.
The loyality of the security forces is therefore one of the
important factors determining the direction of this people`s upheaval.
Being the main pillar of the minority regime`s power, continued
loyality of the army is of critical importance. However the security
forces are like swords with double edge that can cut both ways. The
top brass belonging to the TPLF, there is no doubt where their
loyality lies. But, the same can not be said with certainity about
the rank and file of the soldiers, who predominantly come from those
resisting Oromo and Amhara communities. Apart from their own
grievance against the domination of the military by the Tigrains and
the ubiquitous mal-adminstration, one can safely assume them sharing
the cause of their respective communities. Some have already done
that and joined the people`s resistance, although so far there is no
indication that the regime is losing control over the security forces.
It is of course too early to pass judgements, as the dynamics of the
resistance are just evolving. The loyality of the army to the people
would accelarate the downfall of the minority regime and at the same
time reduce the suffering of the people. And the reverse is also true.
Then there is one of unknown quantity but of equal improtance to the
result of the current people`s resistance. And that is the role of
the armed opposition gorups. As a matter fact there are more rebel
groups operating across the land during this regime than in the
previous Dergu`s reign, which it replaced and this is actually the
best moment to show leadership and propel the people`s resistance to
victory. Although it is diffcult to know their extent of involvement,
it can be safely assumed they are indeed in the midst of the people
considering the organization and execution of the demonstration. In
the northern part of Amhara state where many of the communties
traditionally own arms, have the capacity to defend themselves and
indeed engaged the security forces. These are operational areas of
the Patriotic Ginbot 7 and therefore has the access to organize and
support the resistance. During this rainy season militiary activites
are probabaly scaled down, but once it is over, the front can probably
project its military power to advance the cause of the people. To the
knowledge of the Author, the armed opposition have the militiary and
organizational capability to influence events in those northern areas.
If the armed resistance can demonstrate its capability to engage the
army in a manifested way, then the balance would definetly tip in
favour of the people over time. The regime will find itself
outstretched and outorganized to fight all the rebel forces across the
land and to maintain the loyality of the army. No one one can tell
how protracted or quick the military engagement would be, but the
transformation is inevitable.
In conclusion, considering the untenable foundation of this minority
regime, change is unavoidable. The real question is how quick. The
people have demonstrated their determination for change. But this
brutal system will not yield to peaceful poltical protest. In fact it
is going to try its utmost to crush the resistance using security
forces as it has already indicated. But it can not fully rely on the
loyality of the security forces who came from the majority Oromos and
Amharas. Although there is no doubt where the loyality of the rank
and file, it is difficult to see the circumstaances and conditions
which would trigger them to stand with the people in mass. Then there
is the organizational strength and militiary capability of the armed
opposition to bolster the resistance of the people. All these unknown
quantities will determine the course of the resistance and whether it
will be protracted or short militiary confrontation, before the
miority regime is finally thrown to the dust bin of history.
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Received on Fri Sep 16 2016 - 13:01:55 EDT