Kismayo and other contested regions are part of Jubaland, which is believed to be rich both agriculturally and economically. The federal member state is expected to conduct elections in this coming August 2019. It is also a front state to Kenya, hence being a national security concern.
Security officials believe the intention to bring Ethiopia and Eritrean military in Somalia outside the Amisom mandate is likely to isolate and put Kenya in an awkward position. State officials believe Somalia wants to use the two countries to influence Jubaland polls.
In December 2018, elections in Federal South-West State, where Ethiopian troops (Baydhabo) are based, were declared not free and fair by observers, following the unlawful abduction and subsequent arrest of Mukhar Robow.
“When UN Special Envoy Nicholas Haysom protested, the government of Farmaajo declared him persona non-grata, which was collectively condemned by the world,” a military source said.
Current Jubaland President Sheikh Madobe, elected in 2013, is a close KDF ally, who helped uproot al Shabaab from Kismayo during Kenya’s intervention in Somalia.
Madobe, who hails from the Somali Ogaden sub-clan, is facing competition mainly from the Marehan clan, who are the majority in Jubaland.
Somalia’s top leaders are all from the Marehan clan, including the President, top officials of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (Abdullahi Kulane, Zakaria Ismail and Fahad Yasin) and al Shabaab intelligence unit (Amniyat) commanders. Even the current leader of al Shabaab, Ahmad Umar, is from the Marehan clan.
A number of terrorist attacks have happened under the noses of top current intelligence officials, including Westgate, Garissa University, Lamu and El Adde.
WHY KENYA SHOULD BE WORRIED
In May last year, the Kenyan government warned that the activities of foreign countries in Somalia were a threat to regional security.
“The region is not at peace. Somalia remains troubled, largely by foreign agents who weaken its government, who divide its people, and who threaten to reverse the gains we have so painfully won under Amisom,” Uhuru said during a State of the Nation address.
A recent report by the Kenyan military published by the Star established Marehan clansmen were demolishing the border wall, riding on allegations of encroachment on their ancestral land by Kenya.