By Andualem Sisay Gessesse – It was a surprise for many external observers when Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn of Ethiopia announced his plan to resign a few weeks ago though many Ethiopians didn’t seem to take it seriously. Hailemariam said he made the decision to be part of the political reformation of the country and become example of a peaceful power transition.

His announcement came days after leaders of the four member parties of the ruling coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) publicized the decision reached by the coalition to release all political prisoners and shutdown the famous torturing prison in Addis Ababa – the Meakelawi. The decision is reached after the EPRDF held a 17 days meeting.

But what are the real internal and external pressures that prompt the control-freak EPRDF regime to launch this political reform? How did these pressures evolve?

History recorded that most of Ethiopia’s history is all about war. Some of these wars were with foreign aggression, while most are fighting each other for power. One of these civil wars was the one that brought to power the current regime in 1991 after defeating the Marxist Derg Regime, which also overthrow Emperor Hailessilassie in 1974.

Spearheaded by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) defeated and controlled Addis Ababa in May 1991.

EPRDF, which is the coalition of three ethnic-based parties including TPLF and one region-based political party, has brought to an end the bloody war that claimed tens of thousands of lives.

EPRDF facilitated the introduction of a new constitution that herald Ethiopia’s entry of a controversial era of ethnic federalism, which divided the country into nine regional states and the two city administrations – Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. The EPRDF argued that Ethiopia has been a prison of different tribes for centuries because people were denied the right to exercise self-determination through ethnic federalism.

On the other hand its critics say that the real reason the regime promotes ethnic politics is because that is the only way the TPLF, which represents only 6% of Ethiopia’s 105 million populations, can cling on power for unlimited time.

Printing tribe on national ID

The conclusion of the civil war with the Derg was mostly welcomed by parents and the youth who were tired of the national military service. Meanwhile, the decision by the EPRDF regime to force everyone to put her/his tribe on the national identification card is not appreciated by many Ethiopians who grown up under the nationalist dictator – Mengistu Hailemariam.

As a result the regime has faced immediate criticism from those who managed to foresee the danger of the ethnic politics the country is heading towards. Some elders have also begun criticizing the over-stretched bragging of the TPLF about its victory over the Derg.

They asserted that the people who killed each other during the war are brothers and sisters from the same country. Some began warring that portraying the Tigre tribes as the only heroes in video clips taken from the battle field on Tigrigna TV programs everyday will lead ultimately lead to isolation of the people from the rest of Ethiopians.

Meanwhile the regime still continues business as usual and if one flips to the state channel from 7 pm – 8 pm, she/he may still watch those battle video clips from the battle of TPLF with the Derg, which took place from 1974-1991.

In what looks the fruit of this isolation strategy of the regime, today one can rarely find a Tigrian elder or scholar even in the diaspora who dares to come out publicly and criticize the regime for the injustices against other tribes of Ethiopia and the human rights violations the government has been accused for committing. But this doesn’t mean that all the people of Tigray are benefiting from the EPRDF regime, still millions of Tigray farmers, including who used to provide water and food for the former TPLF fighters during the war, are still trapped abject poverty.

The major open criticism came in the capital Addis Ababa Stadium during a public holiday where government officials were attending. The popular master of ceremony and comedian from the National Theater, Tamagn Beyene, criticized the ethnic politics in his humorous jokes at the state. It was clear from the face of the politicians at the time that they don’t like his nationalist (one Ethiopia) comment.

Not long after, he was forced to exile to the United States from where he continues to lead campaigns against the human rights violations in Ethiopia by the current regime.

For the past several years as one of the founders of Ethiopian satellite TV and radio known as ESAT, Tamagn and other likeminded Ethiopians in the diaspora, became a major headache for the regime. The channel has been documenting and exposing the human rights abuses, the economic favoritism that resulted from ethnic politics.

ESAT, which has been changing its frequencies claiming that Ethiopian government is jamming its transmission, is categorized by the government as a channel run by anti-peace forces and terrorists.

In fact during the last year state of emergency period tuning to ESAT was forbidden by the government.

The recent evidences presented by ESAT includes, list of names, photos and ethnic compositions of the people who lead security, military, police, electoral board and courts, among others.

Systematic favoritism

Their evidences have reinforced what most Ethiopians were already murmuring about. After looking around to make sure that there is supporter of EPRDF around, people have been gossiping for years about how many businesses are overtaken by the people from the Tigre ethnic group.

Such systematic favoritism of the people of Tigray by the regime becomes more and more public in recent years to the point where the government can’t even argue about it anymore.

One report presented to the parliament recently exposed that the state bank, in charge of providing loans without collateral for investors engaged in selected productive sectors, has given agricultural loans for dozens of investment projects in Gambella Region. All the investments are owned by the people of Tigray and none of these projects have delivered on their promises after securing the loan.

Another report revealed that the ten state-owned sugar development projects given to a company owned by the defense force of the country (Metals and Engineering Corporation) have failed to bear fruit after tens of millions of dollars of public money is spent.

Converting friends to Terrorists

The other challenge the EPRDF regime is still facing has come from the groups, which were part of the transitional government between 1993 -1995.

This includes the oldest two, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberations Front (OLF). The two groups thought that their fighting for decades will result in forming their own independent states by using the right to cessation Article 39 of the new constitution.

Meanwhile their aspiration to have an independent state like Eritrea, which succeeded in 1993, has failed to bear result. Following the disagreement with the EPRDF regime both groups are finally labeled by the parliament as terrorist organizations, along with Al Shabaab, Eritrean government and an armed group used to be known as Ginbot 7 – established following the controversial 2005 national election.

The romantic relationship between the new country Eritrea, which is separated from Ethiopia and the leadership of the EPRDF also didn’t last long.

The friendship between the TPLF of the late Meles Zenawi and the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) changed to hostility leading to the outbreak of May 1998 war. The war broke out over a claim of a border area, Badime.

Meanwhile many believe that Badime is just a pretext. The war is a result of the gray relationship developed over time between the TPLF and of Isaas Afewerki’s ELF, who is often mentioned as mentor of the former.

The war concluded in June 2000 has resulted in death of over 70,000 people from both sides with injuries of thousands of people and huge economic loss. The implementation of the UN mediated agreement reached in Algiers is not still realized.

As anyone of them has not achieved tangible result for their people, the war is considered by many as nothing but a deadly military exercise aimed at testing their military capability. The two countries still accuse each other for militarizing and hosting armed group to topple one another.

The glimpse

Since the first national election conducted in 1995, the EPRDF has been in control of the 547 seat national parliament. Since then the country has been conducting parliamentary elections every five years through its fairness and transparency and electoral board’s independence has been in question.

Meanwhile the first glimpse of fair and competitive election was observed in 2005 when the opposition was given a fair amount of airtime on the public media. The televised debates with the ruling party officials have helped most opposition parties to get massive support.

The result was unexpected for both the ruling party and the opposition that merged at the 11th hour and formed the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD).

Out of the 23 seats Addis Ababa city has in the national parliament, the CUD won 22 of them while securing victory in major cities across the country.

On aggregate result the ruling party has won the election, according to the electoral board. This was not accepted by the CUD and some of its leaders decided not to join the parliament accepting their parties defeat.

Following the confrontations and demonstrations around 200 demonstrators are killed by the government forces, while thousands locked in jail and many more exiled.

One of them is the founder of Ginbot 7, Dr. Birhanu Nega, who was elected by the CUD to be the mayor of Addis Ababa city. He ended up in jail along with hundreds.

After pardoned by the government a few years later, Dr. Birhanu and his former colleagues along with Andargachew Tsige, who was snatched from Yemen Airport a few years ago and now serves life sentence in Addis Ababa, have launched Ginbot 7 from the United States.

Ginbot 7 also has known as G-7, has merged with another armed group in Amhara Region – Arbegnoch Ginbar (Patriots Front) a few years ago forming Patriotg7. Based in Eritrea, Patriotg7 has been launching gorilla attack and became another headache to the EPRDF regime.

Dr. Birhanu, who was a university professor in the United States, is not only the leader of the group; he has also been lobbying decision makers in the United States Congress and the European Parliament.

Introduction of stringent laws

The unexpected result of the May 2005 national election has also made the regime to introduce some stringent laws, such as anti-terrorist, civil society and telecom fraud declarations, which aimed at silencing independent views.

In what seems ‘if you are not with me, then you are against me,’ unwritten law, the government has begun charging bloggers, journalists, and opposition members, religious leaders, among others for criticizing the regime’s actions and policies.

It has become difficult for the few private media left to find a professional who boldly comment or criticize anything the government does.

This has resulted in decline on the number of independent media outlets as the journalists are either jailed or exiled in fear of prosecution or changed their profession to other jobs such as, public relations.

Today there are ten times more private and independent Ethiopian media outside the country than the few staggering in Addis Ababa.

In what seems to relieve the bored people of Ethiopia with state propaganda machines, some individuals have begun launching entertainment TV channels from abroad, following the foot-steps of ESAT but avoiding politics.

As the number of these channels increases, the government is working to bring all on the satellite, which the Informational National Security Agency of the government has rented.

The justification brought by the broadcasting authority, which regulates the media, is to help the country save hard currency the TV stations pay. But many didn’t seem to believe the justification. They say that it is like giving the remote control of their channel to the state security agency to turn off whenever they want.

The Magnitsky Act

As the United States Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visits Ethiopia this week, a bill called HR128 by human rights activists in the U.S is progressing towards the U.S. Congress.

This bill has also been another headache for the EPRDF regime, which has been denying criticism of several human rights organizations for years.

If approved HR128 demands Ethiopian government to open its doors to independent investigators to check the human rights abuses, killings of civilians, etc. Otherwise the country’s politicians and generals who are allegedly involved in the crimes against humanity during the EPRDF era will faces travel bans and asset freezing, as per the Magnitsky Act approved during President Obama.

Pointing her finger to an Ethiopian sitting on a wheelchair within one of the corridor of the United States Congress, “Every day I meet another Ethiopian like Guya, who is tortured in a prison like Maekelawi, in a military camp, folks attacked on the street, women rapped because they refused to join the ruling party,” said Andrea Barron, Advocacy and Outreach program manager at the U.S. based Torture Abolition and Survivors Support Coalition in a video interview posted end of January 2018.