From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Sun Oct 18 2009 - 15:43:19 EDT
Libya: The Succession Guessing Game Stratfor Today
»<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis>October 18, 2009 | 1757 GMT
[image: Seif al-Islam Gadhafi in Tripoli on Aug. 18, 2007]
MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images
Seif al-Islam Gadhafi in Tripoli on Aug. 18, 2007
Summary
Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has apparently granted the wish of his son,
Seif al-Islam, for a formal government position. Many are taking this as a
clear sign that Seif al-Islam has won the succession battle, but in Libya,
political appearances can be deceiving. Seif al-Islam’s appointment is yet
another part of his father’s byzantine political balancing act.
Analysis
Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, the 37-year-old son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi,
was appointed to an official position Oct. 15, that of “general coordinator”
of a group of high-level tribal, political and business leaders in Libya.
While rumors are circulating in the West that this is a clear sign that
Moammar Gadhafi is preparing Seif al-Islam to succeed him as Libya’s leader,
the situation (as with most things concerning Libya) is much more complex
than that.
Moammar Gadhafi’s sanity is frequently called into question, but the
charismatic Libyan leader knows how to run a tight ship in Tripoli. At 66
years of age and in apparent good health, Gadhafi adroitly manages the
internal fissures within his regime by keeping the power elites beneath him
on their toes. The security-obsessed leader prevents the development of
competing power bases in part by impromptu government reshuffling. The
health minister can become prime minister, the prime minister can become
energy minister, the intelligence chief can become foreign minister, and so
on.
Gadhafi also likes to keep everyone guessing on the succession. He has no
near-term plans of giving up power, but he does have two sons that he is
grooming to eventually take his place — the reform-minded Seif al-Islam and
the military man Motassem, who once attempted a coup against his father and
has now been forgiven. Motassem currently serves as Libya’s national
security consultant and de facto minister of foreign affairs. In addition,
Gadhafi relies on his cousin, Ahmed Qhaddaf al-Damm, to manage Libya’s
relations with Egypt and promote the country’s pan-Arab orientation.
Seif al-Islam manages Libya’s international image. The young Libyan leader
is fluent in English and has traveled the world in handling major business
and diplomatic transactions for his father. While Seif al-Islam is
eccentric, he differs in many other ways from his father. Rather than coming
from a poor, nomadic family like his father or a military background like
his brother, Seif al-Islam was born into power and has always been an art
enthusiast and world traveler. He also has given speeches in which he takes
a much more cautious tone than his father on such explosive topics as
Israel.
Seif al-Islam has also scored points in the West for his outspokenness on
political, social and economic reform in Libya. He has made public proposals
for a real constitution (Libya is currently governed by Gadhafi’s “Green
Book”) and institutional development, such as a central bank, a supreme
court and independent media outlets. At the same time, Seif al-Islam knows
his place in the Gadhafi family and is always careful to respect his
father’s clout. He said there are four redlines to guide such reforms —
Islamic law, the territorial integrity of Libya, security and stability and,
of course, Moammar Gadhafi himself. Seif al-Islam’s talk of reform has
ruffled feathers in the military and invigorated much of the Libyan public,
but so far every one of his proposals has stalled.
Seif al-Islam has long been after his father to give him an official
government position as a signal of his power within the regime. He created a
lot of buzz last August when he announced his “retirement” from politics,
saying that he “had no great battles ahead,” that the Libyan government “was
not a farm to inherit” and how he wanted to “dispel rumors about his
inheritance of power.” This was an odd announcement, considering that he
held no official post in the government, but this sort of publicity stunt is
also very common in the Arab world. Politicians will speak of revolutionary
reforms then humbly announce their retirement from politics only to generate
more public demand for them to return when the political timing is right.
The elder Gadhafi has now apparently made a decision to grant his son his
wish for a political appointment. In this new position, Seif al-Islam will
coordinate between the Popular Revolutionary Committees (i.e., the old
guard) and the Social Popular Leaderships (the new guard) to help maintain
political balance in the regime.
STRATFOR sources have indicated that Seif al-Islam’s appointment is also
part of Gadhafi’s damage-control strategy following Libya’s celebratory
greeting of Lockerbie bomber Abdel Basset Ali
al-Megrahi<https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090826_libya_heros_welcome>,
who was released from prison in Scotland amid Western outrage. Through his
Gadhafi International Charity and Development Foundation, Seif al-Islam has
attempted to put a more positive spin on Libya’s track record by negotiating
compensation for Lockerbie victims, intervening in hostage situations and
setting up amnesties for militants in Libya and even in the Philippines. The
elder Gadhafi does not want to let go of his country’s rebellious streak,
but he could find utility in having Seif al-Islam take a more active role in
managing Libya’s image abroad.
Additionally, Gadhafi may be looking to shore up investor
confidence<https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20090824_european_libyan_game>after
recently sidelining Shukri Ghanem, a Western-oriented and
reform-minded member of the regime who served as head of Libya’s National
Oil Company (NOC) and before that as the country’s prime minister. Ghanem
and Seif al-Islam are known to have a close relationship. Ghanem was one of
the more aggressive members of the regime in calling for reform to attract
investment into Libya and fulfill the country’s immense energy potential.
After years of frustration in trying to carry out his investment plans for
Libya, Ghanem finally resigned in September after butting heads one too many
times with Prime Minister Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi, a conservative member of the
old guard who replaced Ghanem as premier in 2006.
The NOC is now headed by its former managing director, Ali Mohammed Saleh.
With Ghanem out, the power in the Energy Ministry is shifting toward
al-Mahmoudi and his ally, Motassem al-Gadhafi, who is competing with his
brother Seif al-Islam for succession. To make these battle lines more
distinct, a Supreme Council for Energy Affairs — backed by al-Mahmoudi and
Motassem — reportedly has been created to replace the Supreme Council for
Oil and Gas Affairs, a regulating body that was backed by Ghanem.
Maintaining such a byzantine political environment is Gadhafi’s preferred
method of keeping his hold on power. Though it appears on the surface that
Seif al-Islam is getting the green light from his father to move up in the
succession race and usher in reforms with this new appointment, it is all
still part and parcel of the traditional Gadhafi balancing act.
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