From: Biniam Haile \(SWE\) (eritrea.lave@comhem.se)
Date: Thu Oct 01 2009 - 19:39:15 EDT
CrisisWatch N°74, 1 October 2009
CrisisWatch N°74
1 October 2009
Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world
deteriorated and none improved in September 2009, according to the new
issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch,
released today.
In Guinea, mounting frustration with the ruling military junta spilled
over into large-scale demonstrations in and around the capital at the
end of the month, as tens of thousands hit the streets to protest clear
moves by junta leader Dadis Camara to stand in presidential polls now
set for January 2010. On 28 September, security forces in Conakry opened
fire, killing at least 157 protesters, wounding over 1,000 and
reportedly committing brutal sexual attacks on demonstrators and
bystanders. The riots have underlined wider fears of extended military
rule following the death last December of long-standing President
Lansana Conté, and the potential for further escalation as the election
timeframe narrows.
The political turmoil in Afghanistan intensified as allegations of fraud
in August's presidential elections, mainly favouring incumbent Hamid
Karzai, mounted. Provisional results gave Karzai 54.6 percent of the
vote, but the polls are increasingly seen as illegitimate, with EU
observers mid-month declaring that at least one third of ballots showed
evidence of fraud. Violence continued to rise, and NATO command warned
that the ISAF mission was "likely to fail" without an urgent increase in
troops.
Bosnia saw an escalating confrontation between the Office of the High
Representative (OHR) and Republika Srpska (RS), after High
Representative Valentin Inzko used the OHR's "Bonn Powers" to impose 8
laws on 18 September. The RS government promptly rejected the laws and
RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik threatened to pull all RS officials from
the state government. The Peace Implementation Council urged the RS to
reconsider its position, warning that moves posed a direct challenge to
the Dayton Peace Accords. But with neither side willing to climb down,
it remains unclear how the stand-off will be resolved.
In Uganda, 27 people were killed and over 100 arrested over two days of
violent riots in Kampala, as thousands hit the streets 10-11 September
in support of King Mutebi of Buganda region, after he was banned from
visiting a city that is claiming secession from Buganda.
CrisisWatch identifies a conflict resolution opportunity between Armenia
and Turkey for the coming month with the 10 October signing of draft
protocols to drive forward normalisation of relations following a
breakthrough agreement in August. Following the formal signing in
Switzerland, the draft protocols will go to the two countries' national
parliaments for ratification. However, segments of domestic opposition
to rapprochement and uncertainty over the status of Armenia's ongoing
dispute with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh continue to threaten
progress.
September 2009 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Bosnia, Guinea, Uganda
Improved Situations
-
Unchanged Situations
Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country
(Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad,
Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivore, Cyprus,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji,
Gabon, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir),
Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir,
Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia,
Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma,
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus
(non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Peru,
Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan,
Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen,
Zimbabwe
October 2009 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
-
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Armenia/Turkey
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk
alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect
changes within countries or situations from month to month, not
comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is
given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to
continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new
or significantly escalated violence is feared.
Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the
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http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6324
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