Sudan: Is Bashir's Regime Crumbling?
By <
http://world.time.com/contributor/william-lloyd-george/> William Lloyd
George / Kigali
Nov. 25, 2012
<
http://world.time.com/2012/11/24/sudan-is-bashirs-regime-crumbling/#comment
s> 1 Comment
Shortly after midnight on Thursday a column of tanks drove slowly down one
of the main boulevards of Khartoum. Although residents of
<
http://topics.time.com/sudan/> Sudan's capital of Khartoum awoke hours
later to what seemed like another normal day, something significant had
taken place during the wee hours. Amid a flurry of conflicting reports and
wild rumors, information minister Ahmed Belal Osman announced Thursday that
13 suspects - among them senior officials - had been arrested for plotting
against the state. "The government has decided to abort this plot just
before the zero hour as a preventive measure to avoid entering the country
into chaos," Osman said.
The news of a coup attempt would have come as little surprise to countless
Sudan watchers, who for months have watched storm clouds gather around the
regime of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Facing armed resistance from
restive ethnic groups in all corners of the country, as well as unrest on
city streets from a population resentful of the state's repressive
tendencies, the regime has shown signs of losing it's grip on power. The
regime's problems are exacerbated by delays in the flow of
<
http://topics.time.com/oil/> oil from
<
http://topics.time.com/south-sudan/> South Sudan, sinking the Sudanese
pound to an all time low. As economic woes deepen, many observers suspect
that Bashir, subject of a war-crime indictment at the International Criminal
Court in The Hague, will face an internal power struggle that he may not
survive.
(MORE:
<
http://world.time.com/2012/06/25/sudan-wishful-spring-thinking-or-the-begin
ning-of-the-end-for-bashir> Wishful Spring Thinking or the Beginning of the
End for al-Bashir?)
Although discontent has been simmering within the regime for some time, the
catalyst for the latest plot appears to have been a disagreement during a
conference held last week for the Islamic Movement - an organisation
supposedly created to guide the ruling National Congress Party (NCP). Some
ministers and religious leaders had hoped to use the conference to push for
reforms in the NCP, but were thwarted by Bashir's allies. Several delegates
walked out of the congress even before it ended.
"This is a clear sign that something was brewing, says Dr. Alhajj Hamad, a
Khartoum based analyst. "These people wanted the congress to reform the
government but instead the Islamic Movement ended up being under al-Bashir's
control. Infuriated by the lack reform to come out of the meeting, many
believe that the senior political figures and islamists currently in
detention were discussing how to change the status quo."
"I don't think they were anywhere near plotting a coup, one Western diplomat
told TIME. "[But]there was definitely an alliance being formed, and this
spooked the government."
Salal Gosh, the former intelligence chief, who is currently in detention did
not even attend the conference. After Gosh voiced a desire to rule the
country, Bashir removed him from his post in April 2011. Since then, rumours
have since circulated he planned to do something about it. In a sign that
the government may be readying to punish Gosh, his parliamentary impunity
was lifted on Friday.
(MORE: <
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2112356,00.html> The
War Between the Sudans: No Longer Any Pretense of Peace)
Those detained overnight on Thursday were not only obvious foes of Bashir.
Senior military official, Mohammed Ibrahim, considered a hero by the
Islamist youth for his military operations and leadership against several of
the ethnic rebel groups and South Sudan, has also been held. Sources in
Khartoum say the state has also arrested over 40 members of the the islamist
youth group Al-Sae'hoon which was created earlier this year to push for
reforms. Many of it's members fought under Ibrahim against the south as
jihadists and up till recently has voiced undeterred support of the regime.
In recent months, though, the group and other Islamists have voiced
discontent with Bashir ally Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein's tenure as defence
minister. They blame him for concessions made to South Sudan, territory lost
to rebel groups and airstrike attacks by Israel on weapon storage
facilities.
Despite initial claims that opposition groups had incited a coup attempt,
there is clearly a power struggle underway within the regime. While several
of the detainees have already been released, indicating that some were just
taken in to aid the investigation, others could be held for a while. Dr.
Amgad Fareid Eltayeb argues, though, that most Sudanese are indifferent to
the regime's infighting. "These are all bad guys fighting for power and
wealth, Eltayeb, spokesman for opposition group Sudan Change Now (SCN) told
TIME. "Not one of them cares about the Sudanese people With the oil
agreement seemingly about to break down, tensions mounting on the border
over a recent airstrike by Khartoum, and internal power struggles
developing, the regime's ability to survive will be increasingly tested.
"The state is crumbing and every regime in its final days shows similar
trends," says Hamad. "It is now merely just the usual process of self
destruction."
MORE: <
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2102098,00.html> Sudan
vs. South Sudan: The Rising Risk of a New Confrontation
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Received on Sun Nov 25 2012 - 12:10:20 EST
