Little Hope for an End to Ogaden Conflict
By <
http://www.ipsnews.net/author/william-lloyd-george/> William
Lloyd-George
ADDIS ABABA, Nov 13 2012 (IPS) - Many were hoping that recent peace talks
between the Ethiopian government and Ogaden rebels would signal an end to
the gruelling 18-year-old conflict. The latest round of talks, however,
dashed all dreams of peace between the two sides.
Things have taken a turn for the worse. <
http://onlf.org/> Ogaden National
Liberation Front (ONLF) founder and foreign secretary Abdirahman Mahdi told
IPS that he currently cannot see a way for the talks to continue.
Ogaden is a territory in the southeast of the Somali Region in Ethiopia. And
ONLF intellectuals have fought for an independent state there since the 1991
fall from power of Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam.
However, peace talks between the ONLF and the Ethiopian government abruptly
ended in a stalemate during the Oct. 15 to 17 discussions. Addis Ababa's
negotiating team asked the ONLF to accept Ethiopia's constitution before the
talks could continue. The ONLF refused, arguing that this was a breach of
modalities agreed to in the first talks. As usual, each side blames the
other.
"We need to begin by creating a dialogue - it is as if they had made a
premeditated decision to abort the talks," Mahdi said. "There is no use
beginning by demanding we agree to the constitution; this has always been
our major point of contention."
While talks have been going on since March, the first official round took
place from Sept. 6 to 7. It was also the first high-level negotiation
involving Ethiopia's Defence Minister Siraj Fegessa and Mahdi. It was
mediated by Kenyan Defence Minister Yusef Huji.
After the talks optimism was seemingly high on both sides. Government
spokesman Dina Mufti said: "It is a positive first step."
And Mahdi said: "This could be the beginning of a useful process."
But since then Mahdi has told Ethiopia's negotiating team that the
constitution should be chosen by the people and should not depend on one
political party.
"Governments cannot just force the people to accept a constitution, they
must hold a referendum," he said.
It was the constitution that set off the conflict between the ONLF and the
present government in 1994. While the ONLF had joined forces with many of
the Ethiopian government's current leaders to defeat Mariam, things quickly
turned sour.
Finally seeing an opportunity for self-determination, the ONLF called for a
referendum to be held for succession. The Ethiopian government refused. Once
again the ONFL took up arms.
The ONLF claims to fight for self-determination for the people who occupy
what is now called Somali Region due to its large population of ethnic
Somalis. It is one of nine ethnically-based administrative regions in the
country and has long suffered from poor development and the ONLF alleges
that the government has committed countless human rights abuses there.
"At the moment we are being marginalised, denied our basic rights. They are
insulting our people by forcing an administration on us, which we did not
elect. A lot of things are happening, our people are being killed, there is
no press freedom, a humanitarian embargo is in place," said Mahdi.
The talks between the ONLF and the government were initiated by the late
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (1995-2012), who was keen to find an end to the
conflict, and approached former South African President Thabo Mbeki
(1999-2008) before starting the peace talks.
Analysts say the main reasons for the recent breakdown of the talks include
a lack of clear leadership, and divisions over what to do.
According to Ethiopian political analyst Jawar Mohammed, the Ethiopian
government is divided over how they wish to deal with the ONLF. One group
wants to wipe them out with military force, while another group, which is
more exposed to the international community, is keen to find a peaceful
solution.
But while analysts are pointing fingers at divisions in the ruling political
coaltition, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, the
Ethiopian government appears to be blaming the failure of the talks on
divisions in the ONLF.
"The peace talks failed after the ONLF group refused to accept and respect
the constitution of Ethiopia and work within the constitutional framework,"
read a government statement.
Mahdi dismissed these accusations. "This is just baseless propaganda; the
main problem is they cannot come to a united decision on how to proceed with
the talks," said Mahdi.
Officials say the Kenyan government is frustrated with the latest
developments. Holding the talks outside of Ethiopia, in Nairobi, was
heralded as a big step forward. The Kenyan government has its own vested
interests in the success of the talks.
"Al-Shabaab (al-Qaeda's Somalia-based terrorist cell) has constantly been a
concern for Kenya's security; (the Kenyan government) will be keen to sever
the ONLF's links with al-Shabaab," Abel Abate, a researcher at a
state-funded think-tank, the Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and
Development, told IPS.
Ogaden expert Tobias Hagmann, an associate professor at Roskilde University
in Denmark, told IPS that despite Kenya's desire to find a solution, the
country has little leverage over Ethiopia, which could explain the recent
breakdown. "It is like a little brother trying to influence the big
brother," he said.
Analysts are divided over whether the talks will resume. Abate believes that
the ONLF is desperate to find a solution and will end up accepting the
constitution. He argues that the group has been severely weakened militarily
in recent years and has lost international support and funding.
But Mahdi dismissed these claims, arguing that "the ONLF is the strongest it
has ever been."
Emilio Manfredi, Ethiopia analyst at the <
http://www.crisisgroup.org/>
International Crisis Group, said there is little chance of the talks
achieving anything.
"Interests are too divided and the Ethiopian government is yet to really
know who is in charge," he told IPS. "At the same time the ONLF needs to
work out how close it can get to accepting the 1994 constitution without
losing all legitimacy."
With the talks looking to be a complete failure, many are concerned about
increased fighting and human rights abuses in the region.
"We may see a surge of violence as the ONLF needs to remain politically
relevant in the eyes of Ethiopia and the international community. In
response, the Ethiopian government is also expected to launch a major
military offensive," another expert on Ogaden, associate professor Kjetil
Tronvoll at the University of Oslo, told IPS.
An international humanitarian aid worker operating in the region told IPS on
condition of anonymity that ultimately the losers in the failed negations
would be the local people.
"As usual it is the local populations who will suffer. Both armed groups are
likely to increase human rights abuses, and the government will continue to
prevent aid from reaching the region."
Received on Tue Nov 13 2012 - 21:01:39 EST
