Somalia: Face-Off Over Jubbaland
Nov 13, 2012 - 11:07:29 PM
By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
The opening move in the political battle for the south of Somalia was made
by Puntland's government in an October 8 press release "welcoming" the
nomination of Abdi Farah Shirdon as prime minister of the Federal Republic
of Somalia. After promising that Puntland would cooperate with the new
government, it issued a stern warning to that government that Puntland
expected certain conditions to be met, among them: "Implementation and
completion of the federal system of government in Somalia; Support for the
ongoing formation of the remaining Federated States, such as Jubbland State,
a new state in the Digil and Mirifle community lands, and other Federated
States of Somalia."
On October 26, Puntland's president, Abdirahman Mohamed Farole, was more
specific in his address at Eid-ul-Adha ceremonies in Garowe, appealing to
the new national government "to promote national reconciliation and
state-building processes, such as the formation of Jubbland." He added that
negotiations for a new government for the Jubba and Gedo regions were being
"conducted in an inclusive manner among local communities."
The Sunatimes website noted with regard to Farole's remarks: "This is the
first time in post-transition Somalia that two separate states or factions
have shown solidarity and made a bid to reconcile the divisions that
sprouted during the civil war."
Puntland has made its move and is was ready to wage its fight for its vision
of a decentralized federalism in which the constituent states are co-equal
or perhaps even greater in power than the federal government is . Now
everything depends on whether the Jubba and Gedo regions will combine
according to the model of a state exemplified by Puntland's autonomy, or
will follow a model of a more centralized federalism in which the
constituent states are subordinate in power to the national government.
The stakes are high; they concern the form of political organization that a
Somali state will take. The Farole administration knows that and is acting
accordingly. If a Jubbaland state modeled on Puntland comes into being,
Puntland's vision for Somalia is very likely to be achieved. Farole has
taken a stand.
The new national government is predictably in favor of a more centralized
federalism, but it lacks the developed vision that Puntland has. It is
trying to establish itself, has very little power, and has recently suffered
its first bout of the kind of in-fighting that plagued its predecessor, the
Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.).
The in-fighting occurred over Shirdon's appointment on November 4 of a small
cabinet of ten ministers that awakened opposition from sub-clans that were
not included in it.
Anticipating a tussle, Parliament, on November 3, passed its first motion to
alter the new Provisional Federal Constitution, revoking Article 67, which
allows the president to dissolve Parliament "if the Lower House fails to
approve the Council of Ministers and the government program."
By November 8, opposition to Shirdon's cabinet surfaced in Parliament when
30 MPs sent a statement to the parliamentary speaker, Mohamed Osman Jawari,
that they rejected the "incomplete" cabinet list, which did not honor the
4.5 system of clan representation, and that they would not participate in a
vote of confidence on it, because it would be unconstitutional to do so. As
reported by Garoweonline, one of the statement's signers was former T.F.G.
constitution minister, Abdirahman Hoosh.
By November 9, the situation looked serious enough to United Nations special
representative for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, for him to "call on the
Parliament to move expeditiously to ensure that Somalia has a duly endorsed
Council of Ministers as soon as possible. A transparent, participatory and
comprehensive hearing is in the national interest. We must move quickly."
On November 10, Jawari announced that the vote in Parliament on Shirdon's
cabinet list, scheduled for November 9, had been postponed, and that no date
had been set for a future vote.
Despite the first skirmishes of in-fighting in the new national government,
its president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, attempted to assert authority in the
south by sending an official delegation to Ksmayo to investigate stocks of
charcoal, the export of which are banned by the U.N., a prohibition that
local interests, Kenya, and African organizations are trying to have lifted.
When the delegation arrived on November 7, it was promptly expelled from
Ksmayo on the grounds that it had come unannounced. Garoweonline reported
that the expulsion was actually based on the inclusion in the delegation of
associates of former warlords from the south, and on opposition to the
national government "interfering in the local process to establish Jubbaland
administration." Hassan had taken the position that the national government
should form the administration of a state in the south.
On November 9, Garoweonline reported that demonstrations against national
government "interference" in the formation of a southern regional state
being forwarded locally with the support of the Horn of Africa sub-regional
organization, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (I.G.A.D.) had
taken place across the southern territories. The spokesman for the national
government armed forces in the Jubba regions, Mahamed Farah, told B.B.C.:
"Jubbaland communities and Somali government forces in Jubbland will not
accept Mogadishu to appoint an administration for Jubbaland regions, as this
violates the Somali Federal Constitution."
On November 10, members of the technical committee consisting of
representatives of groups that had been negotiating in Kenya on the
formation of the Jubbaland state, and representatives of I.G.A.D., arrived
in Kismayo to prepare for a convention to inaugurate Jubbaland. Speaking for
the Ras Kamboni group, which is the strongest domestic political-military
faction in the Jubba regions, Abdinasir Serar told Garoweonline that he did
not know how much time the state-formation process would take.
Meanwhile, another delegation from the technical committee was in Mogadishu
meeting with Hassan to persuade him to back the Jubbaland process.
Garoweonline reported on sources that said that "Hassan exchanged heated
words with the committee members and demanded that IGAD stop supporting the
process," repeating that the administration should be nominated by the
national government.
The struggle over the form of Somalia's political organization has begun.
The political battle for the south is underway. The proponents of
decentralized federalism - Puntland, I.G.A.D., Kenya, and local factions in
the south, represented by prominent leaders such as Ras Kamboni's Ahmed
Madobe and the Azania group's Mohamed Abdi Gandhi - have the advantage
over a weak national government that has not yet found its footing.
Report Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein, Professor of Political Science,
Purdue University in Chicago weinstem_at_purdue.edu
Received on Tue Nov 13 2012 - 13:37:48 EST
