The Nile, Egypt's lifeline in the desert, comes under threat
Poor African capitals are increasingly challenging Cairo for the river's
water, without which Egypt's economy would wither and die.
By Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times
November 11, 2012
Overwhelmed by cascading economic and political problems since the overthrow
of <
http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/hosni-mubarak-PEPLT007537.topic>
Hosni Mubarak, this nation teeters from within even as it biggest threat may
lie hundreds of miles away in the African highlands. Buried in the headlines
is the future of the
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/intl/north-africa-PLGEOREG000005.topic> Nile
River - and thus the fate of
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/intl/egypt-PLGEO00000078.topic> Egypt itself.
Mubarak long neglected the security danger posed by other nations' claims to
the timeless pulse that provides 95% of this desert country's water, without
which its delta farmlands would wither and its economy die. As poor
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/intl/africa-PLGEOREG0000010.topic> African
capitals increasingly challenge Cairo, however, the struggle has become one
of the most pressing foreign policy tests for Egypt's new president, Mohamed
Morsi.
African countries at the river's source, notably
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/intl/ethiopia-PLGEO00000088.topic> Ethiopia,
no longer feel bound by colonial-era agreements on water rights and are
moving to siphon away larger shares of water for electricity, irrigation and
business to meet demands of burgeoning populations.
It is a skirmish involving diplomats, engineers and veiled threats of war
over geography's blessings and slights and how nations in a new century will
divvy up a river on whose banks civilizations have risen and tumbled.
"All of Egyptian life is based on the Nile. Without it there is nothing,"
said Moujahed Achouri, the representative for the
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/crime-law-justice/international-law/united-nat
ions-ORCUL000009.topic> United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organization
in Egypt.
Morsi's acknowledgment of the water crisis and his desire to reach a
compromise to protect his country's strategic and historical claim is
evident: The Islamist leader has visited key Nile countries twice since his
inauguration in June, and his prime minister, Hesham Kandil, is a former
water and irrigation minister with connections to officials in African
governments. An Egyptian delegation recently toured the region, listening to
how Cairo might help build hospitals and schools in villages and jungles.
An advisor to the president quoted in Al Ahram Weekly said this of Morsi:
"The man was shocked when he received a review about the state of ties we
have with Nile basin countries. The previous regime should be tried for
overlooking such a strategic interest."
For decades, Egypt had concentrated on problems closer to home, including
keeping the Arab-Israeli peace and tending to wars from Lebanon to Iraq.
Mubarak, who survived a 1995 assassination attempt by Islamic extremists in
the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, had paid little attention to East
Africa. But his regime was adamant - at one point hinting at military action
- in preserving the existing Nile treaties.
That echoed a warning from his predecessor, President Anwar Sadat, in 1979:
"The only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water."
In a 1929 treaty and through other pacts, Egypt and its southern neighbor,
Sudan, were granted the bulk of the Nile's flow. The logic - filtered
through decades of politics and power struggles - was that Egypt could not
survive without the river. Nile basin countries, including Ethiopia,
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/intl/uganda-PLGEO00000097.topic> Uganda, Kenya
and Tanzania, have seasonal rains and other water sources.
But economic pressure and increasing demand for energy and development have
turned African countries' attention to the Nile. Since 2010, Ethiopia, which
now gets only 3% of its water from the Nile, and five other upstream
countries have indicated they would divert more water and no longer honor
Egypt's veto power over building projects on the river.
The biggest challenge to Cairo is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Experts estimate that the hydropower project, which is under construction
and is expected to cost at least $4.8 billion, could reduce the river's flow
to Egypt by as much as 25% during the three years it would take to fill the
reservoir behind the dam. The project faces a number of potential setbacks
and lost its biggest proponent when Ethiopian Prime Minister
<
http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/government/meles-zenawi-PEPLT00008372
.topic> Meles Zenawi died in August.
Ethiopia has sought to reassure Cairo that Egypt's annual share of 55.5
billion cubic meters of Nile water - about two-thirds of the river's flow -
will not be disrupted and that the new dam may provide low-cost electricity
to its neighbors. But the Egyptians are suspicious.
"Egypt has entered a stage where its resources are depleting and population
is rapidly increasing," said Hani Raslan, an expert on the Nile basin for Al
Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "If the dam is
complete . this will mean Ethiopia will turn into an enemy for Egypt because
it will essentially threaten the country's safety, development and
livelihood of its people."
He added, "Egypt would legally have the right to defend itself by going to
war."
The struggle over the river highlights decades of strained relations.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni was quoted as saying before Morsi's visit
in October: "Despite the Nile River supporting livelihoods of millions of
Egyptians from the ancient times to date, none of the country's presidents
has ever visited Uganda to see the source of this lifeline."
Egypt and the other Nile nations are seeking to calm the rhetoric.
Officials say a resolution may include Cairo entering into long-term
economic and energy resource agreements with neighboring capitals. The
Egyptian delegation that recently toured the region included doctors and
representatives of food banks, hospitals and charities.
Egypt, however, faces deep economic problems and is trying to attract
foreign investment, which dropped sharply during last year's uprising and
ensuing political unrest.
"Morsi is trying to send signals to the African world that Egypt is opening
up now, that he wants to improve relations and increase cooperation," Raslan
said. Morsi's visits to Africa "are all just gestures."
"No real agreements have been reached yet," he said. "More needs to be done.
Egypt wants and needs to reach its influence in the region."
The essence of the Nile conflict is poor nations - Egypt and Ethiopia -
needing the river for similar reasons. Ethiopia, which has experienced
strong economic growth in recent years, wants to boost electricity output
while spurring agriculture and development. Those needs also resonate to the
north, but Egypt, which has no other water source, faces more dire
prospects.
The crisis is certain to force Egypt, where regulations are tangled in
bureaucracy and often ignored, to improve water conservation among the
nearly 30% of its population that depends on farming for its livelihood.
Much of the Nile Delta is made up of small family farms that for centuries
have grown wheat, corn and rice with little environmental concern. This
attitude and a growing population, which may jump from 82 million to 150
million by 2050, have put further strains on the river.
"Water policies in Egypt have to be long-range," said Achouri, the U.N.
official. "If you want farmers to stop using too much water for irrigation,
alternatives and other incentives should be made available to them. Farmers
right now cannot make a living without the Nile."
A possible solution is rotating away from water-intensive crops, such as
rice, and shifting to increased wheat production. Egypt, where the word
"bread" also means "life," is the world's No. 1 importer of wheat.
Agricultural experts say reducing rice production while increasing wheat
yields would conserve water and meet the country's food needs.
Such a scenario may be forced upon farmers if the Nile's flow is curtailed
and irrigation canals become parched. Egypt's water and irrigation minister,
Mohamed Bahaa El Din Saad, said recently that overpopulation, farming and
other water uses have left the country with a "water deficit" of billions of
gallons.
"More than 90% of the water for Egypt's 90 million people is coming in from
the Nile," Achouri said. "The only way out is for more efficient use."
Received on Sun Nov 11 2012 - 21:17:43 EST
