NAIROBI, Kenya - For months, the media have used words like "looming" and
"imminent" to describe a long-anticipated, concerted military assault on
Somalia's coastal city of Kismayo, the last remaining stronghold of militant
group al-Shabab, and the financial hub for its operation.
Somali government forces and African Union (AU) troops are currently
positioned in Miido, a village 80 kilometers west of Kismayo. But clan
rivalry and political wrangling my be hindering operations to capture the
city, analysts say.
The AU force in Somalia, known as AMISOM, has repeatedly expressed plans to
liberate the city from the insurgents and Kenyan and Ethiopian troops have
also been approaching the city.
Abdirashid Hashi, of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, notes
ground troops can move in if there is a political mechanism in place.
"I think the number one reason is a political issue, Hashi said. "I think if
they don't have a consensus amongst those actors and stake holders, I think
it could backfire, it could create a problem for African Union forces. So I
think its very important to have some sort of political understanding, what
will happen next, the morning after they got to Kismayo."
On the political front, sources familiar with political talks going on
behind the scenes say that one of the key issues major clans agree on is to
make Kismayo a business city, but not the capital of a proposed new state in
and around Kismayo called Jubaland.
But where should the capital of Jubaland will be?
Members of the Marehan clan are suggesting Bardhere in the Gedo region and
members of the Ogaden clan want Buale to be the capital.
Ahmed Madobe the head of the Ras Kamboni faction, aligned with the
government forces and AU troops in their fight against al-Shabab, says his
group wants to see an inclusive federal state no matter where the capital is
located.
He says in the political meetings they want to move away from clan divisions
and want people to identify themselves with the regions, cities, districts
and villages they hail from and not to identify themselves with their clans.
Jubaland would consist of three regions, Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba. The
three regions consist of 15 districts. How to share the positions and what
clan should get what territory is another problem.
Abdirashid Hashi says there is the need to organize some sort of temporary
administration to govern Kismayo itself before the city is taken.
"They shouldn't go to Kismayo unless they have a plan who will administer
the city and who will provide service to the people," he said. "They need
services and its very important. You know this is not fighting over spoils
of war; these are human beings, they have needs."
Hashi also stressed that the national government has to be involved in the
process so that people stop saying this is a foreign process led by Kenya
and Ethiopia.
Somalia is in the process of ending an eight-year political transition to
establish the first stable central government since 1991. The government
already has its hands full negotiating power between the various federal
states that make up Somalia, which may one day include Jubaland.
