http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/07/the-zenawi-paradox-an-ethiopian-leaders-good-and-terrible-legacy/260099/#
The Zenawi Paradox: An Ethiopian Leader's Good and Terrible Legacy
Jul 20 2012, 7:01 AM ET
Shrewd, brutal, and a master at soliciting and spending aid money,
Prime Minister Zenawi's 20 years of rule could be nearing its end.
Following the news of the past few years, you might get the impression
that flamboyance and bellicosity are signature traits of any
long-tenured dictator. But for every Muammar Qaddafi there's a Meles
Zenawi, the shrewd, technocratic Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Inside of
the country, he's known for imprisoning his political opponents,
withholding development assistance from restive areas, stealing
elections, and cracking down on civil society NGOs. In the rest of the
world, he's often praised for his impressive economic record, though
not for his human rights. Zenawi has attracted Western support by
being a responsible steward of aid money, a security partner in a
rough region, and a G20 summit invitee.
Now, both his supporters and his detractors may have to contemplate a
future without him. Zenawi is in a Brussels hospital with an
unspecified stomach ailment that may or may not be fatal, depending
upon what news reports you believe. Today, a government spokesperson
announced that Zenawi would be taking a leave of absence from running
the country, which he's led since 1991.
>From a human rights perspective, Zenawi's rule has been abusive,
heavy-handed, and self-interested.. Still, his apparently earnest
dedication to sustainable development has long attracted international
donors, whose money has benefited Ethiopia while propping up his
regime. Zenawi, has fostered a friendlier environment for foreign
investment. Between 2000 and 2010, Ethiopia's GDP enjoyed a staggering
average annual growth rate of 8.8 percent -- China-like numbers. The
country's public sector is hardly clean of corruption, but the
Ethiopian state isn't as mismanaged or as predatory as others in the
region. It ranks 120th out of 183 governments on Transparency
International's Corruption Perceptions index, not exactly Scandinavian
but still ahead of such regional leaders as Kenya, Uganda, and
Nigeria.
Under his leadership, Ethiopians have suffered from a lack of human,
civil, and political rights. At the same time, their country has
earned a reputation as a place where aid money can be responsibly and
effectively spent. "The U.S. assistance portfolio in Ethiopia remains
one of the United States' largest and most complex in Africa"
according to an online U.S. government profile of the roughly $2.1
billion in aid the U.S. has sent to Ethiopia since 2010. The World
Bank helps fund over $ 4.4 billion worth of projects in the country.
This is the paradox of Zenawi's legacy. He has done much to
simultaneously help and hurt his people, with just the kind of quiet
skill that you hope to see in a benign leader and dread in a
malevolent one. If he never returns to office, should he be remembered
as the technocrat behind Ethiopia's amazing economic rise, or the
brutal strongman who resisted democracy as much of Africa adopted it?
Though one did not necessarily require the other -- a kinder, gentler
Zenawi might have overseen even better growth -- the same character
might inform both sides of his rule.
"When I meet with Prime Minister Meles and [Ugandan] President
[Yoweri] Museveni, I feel like I am attending development seminar,"
rockstar development economist Jeffrey Sachs said in a 2004 speech.
"They are ingenious, deeply knowledgeable, and bold." Magnus Taylor,
the managing editor of the Royal African Society's renowned African
Arguments blog, wrote about Zenawi's ability to dazzle foreign
investors at the World Economic Forum in Addis Ababa this past May,
while challenging the democratic world's seemingly dogmatic belief in
the causal relationship between political freedom and economic
dynamism:
Sitting astride this economic growth, and taking pride of place at
this year's WEF, was Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. In an
event that boasted such political heavyweights as former British PM
Gordon Brown, and private sector luminaries like the Ivorian boss of
The Prudential, Tidjane Thiam, whose $600 billion worth of assets
makes Ethiopia look like a minnow, I was surprised by how much Meles
came out as the dominant figure. A fiercely intelligent man, with a
grasp of figures redolent of Brown (whom Meles referred to as 'Prime
Minister' throughout) he seemed totally in his element. Perhaps it was
the nature of the audience. He was never going to have to field too
many tricky questions about Ethiopia's political space, (un)free press
or tight government control over telecommunications and banking in
front of a room full of CEOs and fellow technocrats.
One senses that in certain crowds his statement that "there is no
direct relationship between economic growth and democracy" would have
got him in to trouble - important players were gnashing their teeth at
this but Meles, kingpin of Western policy in the Horn of Africa, knows
exactly how much he can loosen his Marxist instincts without upsetting
his donors.
The World Economic Forum was one of Zenawi's last public appearances.
Even if he survives his illness, there is currently no public
timetable for his return to Addis Ababa. As dictators across North
Africa and the Middle East can no longer take their survival for
granted, it's worth wondering whether Zenawi will be the model for the
next generation of enlightened, western-coddled autocrats -- or one of
the last of a literally dying breed.
Received on Fri Jul 20 2012 - 11:20:52 EDT
