Tigray the Looming Genocide
Amanuel Biedemariam
On a recent interview
with ESAT, the Founder and President of Genocide Watch, Dr. Gregory Stanton
stressed that Ethiopia is high on the list of countries of Genocide
Watch. The reasons Dr. Stanton outlined are alarming; however true, yet, an
opportunity for Ethiopians and other peace loving people in the world to try to
stop it from taking place. This is not the first time Dr. Stanton raised alarm
publicly. However, this time, Dr. Stanton detailed the reasons why; as well as
how and, what could trigger genocide in Ethiopia and specifically
Tigray.
Dr. Stanton comes with a
sizeable resume and expertise in genocide related matters because he has been
closely associated with the formulation of the legal language and UN
resolutions that govern the international standards. He has dedicated a great
deal of time into the matter understanding the triggers; the damage, the
consequences and ramifications; and hopefully preventive mechanisms. Dr.
Stanton said the very reason Genocide Watch started is that, after The Rwanda
Genocide, he came to the realization that there is a need for a watchdog group
that specifically focused on genocide. And, that is the reason why he founded
the organization.
While it is difficult to
trust West- based organizations that claim to do good; I found Dr. Stanton’s
reasoning compelling and his observation about the issues
in Ethiopia spot-on. Dr. Stanton highlighted the stages or indicators
that point to the likelihood of genocidal events in a given region and in this
case Ethiopia, specifically Tigray. One of the common factors in these
countries is often minority regimes ruling ethnically based administrations.
Dr. Stanton said a Tigrayan minority that created its own colonies within
the country rules Ethiopia. He further noted that the minority Tigrayan regime
has created animosities and mistrust amongst the various ethnic groups
in Ethiopia in order to divide and rule. In these circumstances a
feeling of”Us-against-them” and resentment arises with deadly consequences. And
there is always a nickname associated used to demonize the minority group as
in Rwanda.
In Ethiopia, the
minority Tigrayan regime has committed countless crimes against humanity in the
Ogaden, the Gambella and other places. There has been a major forced uprooting
of large populations to accommodate multinational organizations not to mention
the ethnic cleansing of over eighty thousand Eritreans
from Ethiopia from 1998-2000. That is why Dr. Stanton was compelled
to warn; ultimately, the people of Tigray will end up paying the price for the
crimes the genocides Meles regime is perpetrating. He stated, “My job is to
identify trends that could cause genocides and what I am witnessing
in Ethiopia is a great deal of concern for the people of Tigray
because the regime is committing these crimes on their names.”
Here we go…, if an
Ethiopian or Eritrean makes these remarks a Tigrayan is likely to brush it off
as exaggeration. But what Dr. Stanton’s attempt to expose the minority Tigrayan
genocidal regime does is, give weight to the subject and raise the ante. It
gives it credibility. In a recent interview with ESAT, American Professor
Theodore Vestal echoed similar concerns.
What is taking place
in Ethiopia is real and not difficult to see its direction. All good
things come to an end and the good time the genocidal TPLF clique enjoyed at
the expense of Ethiopia and the regime is coming to end sooner than later. The
regime, thinking that it will be the ultimate ruler in the region played a zero
sum game with every country and ethnic group in the region. It committed
genocides in the Ogaden and Gambella. It is dismembering the region by giving
major land-away free; in Somalia, it has created a holocaust
etc…
Signs of a dying regime
All of what the minority
genocidal regime has done is ending. In 2006, Meles Zenawi waived the Holy
Bible to invade an Islamic nation and failed leaving bloody trails. Now the
Kenyans have taken that dubious honor to the dismay of the Transitional Government
of Somalia. This clearly is a sign that the mercenary clique has failed to do
the job and replaced by Kenya.
After the war
between Eritrea and Ethiopia started, the minority regime
established alliances with Omar Al Beshir of Sudan and Abdallah Sallah
of Yemen to isolate and entrap Eritrea. Ten years removed, The
Sallah regime is on life support and Sudan has distanced itself from
Meles and strengthened her alliance with Eritrea. This is significant
because there were major events that changed the dynamics of the frail Sudanese
Ethiopian alliance for good. Firstly, Sudan split into two. Secondly,
the Weakileaks revelation that Meles wanted Beshir gone is a certain dagger
into the relationship and importantly, the TPLF clique is prone to pursue US interests
at the expense of Ethiopia. While the minority regime has tried to show a
positive face with Sudan, in a departure from the regular positive spins,
the mouthpiece of TPLF Aigaforum website posted a critical article about Sudan while
President Isaias Afwerki was in Sudan on a state visit, a first.
All one has to do is
understand what Sudan means to Tigray. The city of Kassala
Sudan is 182 km from the city of Humera Tigray [aka
Beghemder]. Sudan is a lifeline to Tigray because Tigray is a landlocked
province. Most of the goods that come into Tigray including oil come
from Sudan. If Sudan closes borders with Tigray, there will be a
drastic change in the economic realities of Tigray. For long, the genocidal
Meles was able to play the ICC card against President Beshir but now the
political dynamics have changed after the independence of South Sudan.
Furthermore, Eritrea is deeply entrenched in Sudan. In fact,
during the opening ceremonies of a new highway between Eritrea and Sudan
President Beshir said, “I want no border between Eritrea and Sudan.” This is
significant because it means the interest of Sudan and Eritrea are in sink
economically, politically, culturally and security wise. This clearly
highlights the influence Meles lacks with his immediate neighbors. The only
lifeline the genocidal regime has is Djibouti. In other words, he is
alienated and, what he conspired against Eritrea turned on him.
The realities
inside Ethiopia are not different. Meles Zenawi and his clique have
no support of the Ethiopian people. The majority of Ethiopians in the 2005
election rejected them. And the crimes Meles committed in various
Ethiopian regions are a public record.
The Alarm of Genocide
That being the case,
what could push Ethiopia over the edge and create a scenario that
could dismember the nation and create chaos? What could trigger a situation
that makes a specific group of Ethiopians, in this case Tigray a target
for mass killing? Why Tigray? Is there a truth behind Dr. Stanton’s
alarm about genocide? To say Ethiopia loathes the TPLF and Meles Zenawi is
understatement. Hence, is there truth to the fact that Tigrayans will
ultimately pay for the crimes Meles is committing in their name?
While there are many
Tigrayans that say Meles does not represent Tigray; the reality is the main
supporters of Meles are from Tigray. On the other hand, one of the
main threats to his regime is Tigray based with a resurgent TPDM, a movement
that is creating problems from within and gaining momentum with tens of thousands
in the force already. This means that the people Tigray, at least a
sizeable portion are, opposed to Meles Zenawi’s rule. However, a perception
exists that Tigrayans are the ones perpetrating the oppression that is taking
place in Ethiopia.
In 1998, Meles and his
clique forced over 80,000 Eritreans out of their homes. What is interesting was
that the majority of Ethiopians were opposed to this. They hated seeing their
neighbors, their friends, friends of their sons and daughters, people they grew
up and grew old with; old, young and people that knew little or nothing about
Eritrea forced out of their homes and ethnic cleansed. This is a precedent
Meles Zenawi set, unheard of before and breaking the fabric of a long-standing
relationship between both peoples. Therefore, is it likely, when the
opportunity arises that Ethiopians could say, “What is good for the goose is
good for the gander” and repeat
history?
In 2003, a report that
detailed the atrocities the minority clique committed in Gambella became public
and it compelled Dr. Stanton to state, that the crimes “fit the definitions of
genocide and crimes against humanity. Human Rights Watch also conducted two
investigations of their own and determined that the crimes against the Anuak
meet the stringent definition of crimes against humanity.” This does
not include the forced eviction of thousands of Anuak Ethiopians from their
homes, villages and farmlands to accommodate Indian and other multinational
corporations. If Anuaks have the opportunity, will they lash out?
The most Brutal
atrocities by Meles and his clique are taking place in the Ogaden. Major
humanitarian organizations have provided detailed account of the atrocities the
genocidal clique is committing in the Ogaden. Horrid pictures of tortured and
raped women; torched village after village; reports of systemic alienation and
denial of humanitarian aid to millions of Ogadeni’s over a sustained period
with irrefutable-evidences are abundant. Thousands have perished while millions
remain disconnected from the outside world, deliberately. The international
community has been-denied access to the area. In fact, two Swedish reporters
are in jail captured by the minority clique while trying to report about the
plight of the people of Ogaden. The list could go on…, but the
question is there a repercussion? And who will pay?
What the minority clique
is doing to the people Somalia is a historic crime that will
reverberate for generations. It is the highest crime of humanity like the
holocaust and the crimes of the Ottoman Empire on the Armenian
people. What makes it more ironic is that the people of Somalia were
not posing any threat; they were not in a position; they did not have the
capacity or, the ability to do harm. The minority clique invaded a sovereign
nation at the behest of Westerners and committed genocides needlessly.
Unfortunately, the regime is still at it using the people
of Somalia for political, monetary and military advantages from
the West and using the plight of the poor women and children as apolitical
theater against Eritrea squandering precious moments for the people. Will they
have their day?
The people of Oromo
didn’t fare better either. The first target of the minority clique was
Oromia. The people of Oromo have
suffered the most in the hands the TPLF. Any resistance against the clique
meets brute force. Thousands of students have perished, beaten and jailed in
high schools and colleges for showing a sign of opposition. Siye Abraha, a
clique member said that the jails are full of Oromo people. A fight with
Tigrayan students in colleges is a reason for serious punishments. This is
because Oromia poses the greatest threat since the Oromo represent the highest
percentage of Ethiopia’s population and if they rise, it will end the regime’s
reign. Whilst the minority clique is-forced to apply an appeasement strategy,
the people of Oromo are asserting their position evermore with vigor. And it is
certain that they will clash in due time. The list of atrocities is long
everywhere in Ethiopia.
These are the realities
in Ethiopia today. The situation in Ethiopia is grave and requires urgent
intervention. Numerous causalities can lead to calamitous and bloody events in
Ethiopia at any time. There are different scenarios under which these events
could become reality. However, the clique has ignored all the possibilities
with a belief, “As long as the international community is with us, the people
of Ethiopia and the region does not matter: hence, catering to the needs of
foreign powers and businesses solely. For example:
The regime is in
violation of international laws for sitting on Eritrean territories which could
trigger a conflict at any time when Eritrea sees it necessary. Furthermore, the
Tigrayan minority regime has based its very existence on the destruction of
Eritrea. Emboldened by the support it gets from the West, it is feeling
invincible which could lead to a conflict. This will create an opportunities
for the insurgencies to assert their positions forcefully and target their
perceived threat, the people of Tigray.
Sudan could close its
border with Tigray and deny needed goods creating economic chaos for Tigray.
This in turn will force Tigryans to migrate into areas where they may not be
welcomed.
Frustration and
helplessness of the youth will be rampant and a conflict from within will be
rampant. Insurgencies will erupt and create a civil war inside Tigray. This
grim assessment is happening as we speak and will gain momentum in a much
faster pace because the regime has broken all the bridges with Ethiopians. It
denied Tigrayans their traditional gateway and business partner in Eritrea
isolating the people.
Conclusion
Dr. Gregory Stanton made
it clear that Meles Zenawi will face justice for the crimes he is committing
all over Ethiopia. There is always a price to be paid and someone is going to
pay for all the crimes committed over the last two decades. The question is
will that affect the people of Tigray and how? What can the average person do
to avert disasters and unnecessary hardships of poor innocent people? Meles
Zenawi is a friend to no one. He is leading a minority clique that does not
answer to the Ethiopian people. As he gets desperate, he is doing all he can to
stay in power and if he cannot, he has already seeded all the destructive seeds
to light the fire and destroy everything so he cannot be brought to justice.
This alarm is a call to all regardless of where they come from.
Awetnayu_at_hotmail.com
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