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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Sep 22 2010 - 14:20:42 EDT
Analysis: Referendum raises expulsion fears
KHARTOUM, 22 September 2010 (IRIN) - Forced expulsions, violent
recriminations, mass exodus, peaceful co-existence - just some of the
possible outcomes for hundreds of thousands of Southern Sudanese living in
the North, and to a lesser extent, vice versa, after a January referendum
when the South is likely to vote to transform its semi-autonomy into full
independence.
"We are worried for the future, of what happens after the referendum," said
James Jok, a vegetable seller who has lived in the Northern capital Khartoum
since fleeing violence in the Southern state of Jonglei over two decades
ago.
"I am frightened that if there is independence, we will just be told, 'go
home'," he added. "My home is now here in Khartoum - my children are
teenagers and have known nothing else. I don't want to leave."
"I want to vote for an independent South, and I would like to go home,"
Halima Arop, from the Southern border state of Unity, said in Khartoum. "But
I am worried that we will not be allowed to leave peacefully."
Tensions
The 9 January referendum is the climax of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA) that ended Sudan's 22-year-long civil war between North and
South over governance, resources, religion and ethnicity. An estimated two
million people died and four million were forced to flee their homes.
Tensions remain high between the former enemies, however, and slow progress
on the referendum process, including negotiations over reciprocal
citizenship rights, has generated frustration and suspicion on both sides.
In the South, the mood on the streets appears overwhelmingly pro-secession.
On 8 September, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said a Southern vote
to split was "inevitable".
In Khartoum, the growing inevitability of secession has elicited bitterness.
"If the South wants to be its own country, then [it] can take its own
people," said clothing stall-owner Ahmed al Hillu, a Northerner. "Sudan is
one country, and it should stay united - that way people from the South can
stay here and be welcome. If not, then they should go to their new country."
Differences
The complexities of identity in Sudan, where many people belong to several
ethnic, religious and linguistic groups, often blur the distinction between
Northerner and Southerner. Many of those classified as "Southerners" in the
North have spent all their lives in Khartoum after their families fled the
war.
Population figures are contested: a 2008 census calculated some 500,000
Southerners in the North, but Southern government estimates put the figure
at some 1.5 million people, mainly based around the capital Khartoum. [More
estimates here <http://bit.ly/9hMYzb> ]
"If the South separates, Southerners in the North and Northerners in the
South will be especially vulnerable to violence and loss of citizenship,
resulting in statelessness," the Washington-based advocacy group Refugees
International stated in a June report. Violence, in either region, could
spark retaliation on the streets of the opposing capital, it added.
The report went on to cite fears of "large-scale revenge killing of
Southerners in the North if even a single Northerner were harmed in the
South".
To encourage Southerners to return home, the humanitarian ministry in Juba
has released plans for a US$10m "emergency repatriation programme", launched
under the slogan "Come Home to Choose".
Some aid workers are sceptical about the plan, noting that there is little
time left to implement the proposal. Besides, the South's already struggling
resources would be swamped if thousands of people arrived each day.
Returns have so far been affected by localized armed conflicts, lack of
services, land disputes, and weak government capacity. "IDPs and refugees
who returned to their places of origin after the CPA often found their
houses and plots occupied by individuals or [government] staff," the
Norwegian Refugee Council said in August <http://bit.ly/aR9xXD> .
"The process of restituting land and property rights is slow and has
sometimes led to violence between returnees and occupants who are often IDPs
themselves," it added.
Potential displacement
In August 2010, Southern Sudan's humanitarian minister, James Kok Ruea,
urged aid agencies to plan for a massive displacement of Southerners after
the referendum. "People will be coming, and we will not be prepared."
Protection agencies are working to ensure the returns are voluntary. "In the
context of the referendum, the UN and the humanitarian community at large
are keen that procedures for voter registration, notably in the North and
overseas, be finalized, widely disseminated and accessible," Mireille
Girard, UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) deputy representative for Southern Sudan,
told IRIN.
"This constitutes an important criterion for decision about return, for both
IDPs in the North and for refugees," she said.
"Related to the referendum is the issue of citizenship and residency rights
which are still under discussion between the CPA parties," Girard added. "It
is important that such information be made available to concerned
populations, including Northerners in the South, as soon as possible. This
will be critical in people's decisions about return."
Livelihoods threatened
The referendum presents Sudan with more nuanced options than merely unity
versus partition. In the event of secession, it is not yet clear whether the
border will be a "hard" one between two fully separate states, with
restricted movement and visa requirements, or "soft" with free movement
guaranteed for people and goods, and guaranteed residency rights.
"Too firm a barrier would threaten pastoralist livelihoods in North and
South alike, create hardships for Southerners who rely on goods and services
from the North and unnecessarily restrict communities which see the benefit
of joint cross-border initiatives and interaction," the International Crisis
Group stated in a recent report <http://bit.ly/dk3J30> .
Numerous thorny issues will have to be negotiated, the report says,
including, "who can cross the border; their legal status; how they are to be
identified; where, when and for how long they can cross; and the rights and
responsibilities of individuals on both sides of the boundary (including
economic activity, grazing fees, social arrangements and taxation)".
John Ashworth, in a September briefing published by the IKV Pax Christi
organization, noted: "There are fears of large-scale migrations, either
voluntary or, worse still, enforced. This could well lead to a humanitarian
emergency, and a number of NGOs are gearing up for this eventuality."
But he added that the North depends on Southern labour in many areas and so
was "unlikely to expel Southerners en masse".
Northern fears
In the South, Northerners also worry about the consequences. "I fear that if
there are problems in the North, if they force Southerners out from
Khartoum, then we will be in a bad situation here in the South," said Ali
Said, a trader in the Southern capital Juba.
Born and brought up in Juba, his family roots lie in the Northern state of
El-Gezira. "I wish to stay in the South, but I am frightened that any
violence there [in the North] would be copied here in Juba," he added.
Northerners form a key part of the business community in the South. There
are also large populations of people who made a new home in the South after
fleeing violence in the north-western region of Darfur. "It is impossible
for me to go home, because my home is still at war," said Mohammed
Abdelrahman, a Darfuri living in Juba. "But if the South becomes a new
country, will I able to stay?"
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