From: Biniam Haile \(SWE\) (eritrea.lave@comhem.se)
Date: Mon Sep 07 2009 - 18:09:25 EDT
Greater Horn of African consensus climate outlook for June to September
2009
Source: Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Date: 27 Aug 2009
Full_Report
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWFiles2009.nsf/FilesByRWDocUnidFilename/SNA
A-7VF54Y-full_report.pdf/$File/full_report.pdf
SUMMARY
June to September constitutes an important rainfall season for the
northern sector of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), as well as coastal
and western parts of the equatorial sector. Most of the equatorial and
southern sectors of the GHA sub-region are normally dry during this
period. The ICPAC consensus climate outlook for the June to September
2009 rainfall season indicates enhanced probabilities for near to above
normal rainfall over southern Sudan; southwestern Ethiopia; much of
Uganda; northern coast of Tanzania; Kenyan coast and southern coast of
Somalia. Increased probabilities for near-normal to below normal
rainfall are indicated over central Sudan; central Eritrea; northern and
central Ethiopia; western Kenya; southeastern Uganda and extreme
northern Tanzania.
WMO and some of the major climate centers are reporting a high change
for occurrences of El Niņo conditions during the later part of the year.
Details of the regional climate expectations for September to December
and the potential impacts of the any evolving El Niņo conditions will be
presented at the 24th GHA climate outlook forum that will be held in
Nairobi, Kenya from 24 to 25 August 2009.
The temperature outlook indicates cold temperatures and foggy conditions
over the highlands of the southern and equatorial sectors of the sub
region with significant impacts on some diseases such as flu.
Most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) Sub-region have received
below normal and poorly distributed rainfall during the March to May
2009 rainfall season with far reaching implications on livestock, crop
production, various water uses, hydropower, among many others. Some of
the dams providing water and hydropower were filled to levels less than
a half of their normal expectations for the major rainfall season of
March - May. The projected below normal or dry conditions over much of
the GHA sub-region could therefore result into severe impacts regarding
water, food security and hydropower in the region.
Full_Report
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWFiles2009.nsf/FilesByRWDocUnidFilename/SNA
A-7VF54Y-full_report.pdf/$File/full_report.pdf
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