From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Wed Aug 05 2009 - 19:58:19 EDT
August 6, 2009
It is best to leave the Somali conflict to Somalis
Angelo Izama
As US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton arrives in Nairobi where she is
attending a trade conference as part of her African tour and is expected to
meet with Somali President Ahmed Sheriff, Australian authorities are said to
have successfully foiled a terrorist attack planned by a group allegedly
involved with the Al-Shabaab in Melbourne.
The Somali conflict is attracting a lot of volunteer fighters across the
world. Somalia symbolises the fight between Islam and the West on African
territory much in the mould of Afghanistan for these radicals.
Those who wish to contain this “ terrorist infestation” want more support
for the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia and include the
United States and several European countries.
Support for the TFG is consolidating as seen from Ms Clinton’s proposed
meeting with Sheriff and the decision by the Obama administration to ship
tens of tonnes of military equipment, some of which Al-Shabaab militants
have reportedly captured, to the Sheriff government.
Ironically, by drawing the battle lines so clearly, the US and its regional
allies are making Somalia a more attractive destination for radical
Islamists.
But the TFG, even with US-allied military support, will find it difficult if
not impossible to establish control over the whole of Somalia even if it
survives the present military onslaught on it by the Al-Shabaab.
A new strategy to turn things around in Somalia is necessary but action
against the Al-Shabaab must not be understood to mean blind, unreserved
support for the feeble regime of President Sheriff. One must ask if the TFG
is the best option to contain the spread of radicalism in Somalia and
beyond. What would be the actual cost of maintaining its thin legitimacy
even if it were to win battles today with the help of an offensive African
Union force or some other “surge strategy” by its international supporters?
Thus far support for the TFG has been counterproductive and accelerated
radicalism within Somalia inspiring terrorists abroad.
What if the allies exited TFG and allowed the Al-Shabaab which is the
military authority in most of Somalia to consolidate control? Will a Somalia
without the TFG cease to be viable as a strategy against the spread of
terrorism? The best hope of containing the Al-Shabaab in Somalia is to
deinternationalise the conflict there by leaving it to Somalis.
Removing the TFG from Somalia can lead to some positive scenarios.
First, it will take away the fundamentalist premise for the fighting. Mr
Sheriff himself who pioneered the Al Shabaab movement probably knows that it
cannot survive the resurgence of clan identities which would re-emerge as
soon as the TFG, a symbol of Western meddling, is no longer the enemy.
This is not a bad thing. A Somali political consensus cannot be arrived at
under the present matrix where the military contest is based on religious
war which obscures the political contest underneath.
Secondly, a new administration cannot further a religious agenda across
Somalia’s borders. If an Al-Shabaab administration attempted to extend its
fight into Ethiopia, it would surely face an invasion which would only
complicate its dispensation. It would also have to re-evaluate its
relationship with Eritrea and Kenya (which has a large Somali population).
Thirdly but not least, only if there is a military power with some
legitimacy even one drawn from the exit of the TFG, regional bodies like
the East African Community, Igad or even the African Union can
constructively involve themselves in peacebuilding.
The heirs of the TFG can be tasked to explain what kind of government they
intend to run and the region must be willing to put together firmly, and
with the threat of military force, against any unacceptable agenda’s
especially the radical versions of rule that disregard basic human rights.
An invasion in the future by East African countries against a ‘rogue’ state
in Somalia as far-fetched as it sounds, is still a better proposition than
the open-ended support of the TFG.
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