[dehai-news] (MM) Somalia after the Ethiopian Occupation


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From: Yemane Natnael (yemane_natnael@yahoo.com)
Date: Fri Oct 24 2008 - 00:30:28 EDT


    
Somalia after the Ethiopian Occupation

by Abukar Arman

   (Thursday, October 23, 2008)

"...people are yearning for a visionary and a charismatic leader who
would articulate a new vision and inspires the masses to dream a new
Somalia."

In light of the development of several critical issues that include
U.S. economic volatility and the new political direction it’s likely to
turn towards, it’s not farfetched to predict that Washington-supported
Ethiopian occupation of Somalia will soon come to an end.

However, what ensues might not provide comfort to some who erroneously
bought into the mindset that politics and Islam cannot and should not
mix. But, unfortunately, their reaction would be the element that would
tip the scale.

Evidently, Ethiopia is unable to feed her own people and thus could not
feasibly sustain this occupation without Washington ’s financial,
political and technical support. In fiscal year 2007, U.S. awarded the
Ethiopian regime approximately $300 million dollars in a
non-humanitarian aid, and it was supposed to award double that amount
in fiscal year 2008 in order to “fight against Islamists in neighboring
Somalia ”. Be as it may, today, Ethiopia is on a political slippery
slope that unless it takes drastic measures (and soon) it can become
the next epicenter of violence in the Horn of Africa.

The cruel occupation and the violent insurgency that it inspired have
paved the way for the creation of the worst humanitarian crisis in the
world. According to the UN estimate, 3.5 million Somalis are now on the
verge of starvation, and about 1.5 million are IDPs (internally
displaced persons). This coupled with the widely documented brutal
oppression against ethnically Somali people of Ogadenia have profoundly
contributed to the rapid erosion of Ethiopia ’s international image.
Ethiopia has become Africa ’s hegemonic brute with a long record of
gross human rights abuses and war crimes violations.

Last year, ten U.S. Senators have sent a joint, bi-partisan letter to
the Secretary of State expressing their grave concern over Ethiopia ’s
mounting human rights violation record.
 Likewise, the U.S. House of
Representatives has passed a bill that became known as The Ethiopia
Democracy and Accountability Act.

Compounding the pressure is the insurgency getting much fiercer and
more popular every day, and the utter erosion of public trust of the
TFG (Transitional Federal Government.) So, however one assesses this
situation, there is no escaping the writing on the wall: the lethal
debacle that led to the worst misery in Somali history is coming to an
end.

Now, the question is: Would that establish peace and order in Somalia ?
Would that set the stage for Somalia to become, as some have been
saying, a breeding ground or a safe haven for fugitive terrorists?
Would that ensure security for Somalia ’s neighbors and respect their
territorial integrities?

Of course, it would be naïve to think that the Somali political
problem, as intertwined set of complex issues as it is, could be solved
the day after the Ethiopian troops vacate Somalia . It will take a
process, a painful one at that; but certainly nothing like the current
nightmare.

Naturally, the insurgents will declare victory. But, they are not
monolithic; neither in ideology nor in identity. They are a mixture of
what’s left of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) and its radical wing
Al-Shabaab, secularist nationalists, victims of the occupation, and
clan loyalists. However, it’s highly plausible for an inter-factional
power struggle to ignite. One that is reminiscent of the May 2006 when
ICU was fighting for its survival against a CIA-backed gang of most
abhorred warlords in Mogadishu who called themselves the Alliance for
Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism.

In due course, there will be peaceful surrenders, amnesty, and disarmaments..

How soon will this come to pass; and, whether or not the triumphant
entity will be willing to share power; and, how susceptible would they
be to radicalization depends mainly on how Washington reacts. And the
last thing that Washington wants to do is to repeat the same
ill-advised reaction that led to the current catastrophe in the first
place.

For almost a decade, the mention of the word “Islamist” has virtually
blurred the West’s sense of perspective. Everything was seen through
the biased prism of “global war on terrorism” hence a blanket rejection
was thrown over any form of “political Islam”- a phrase loaded that
connotes something sinister and evil.

However, even in this landscape of predisposed negative attitude toward
anything that mixes Islam with politics, the Islamists have an
unmatched record of public service; even against the internationally
recognized TFG. The former operates schools, hospitals, and for six
months before the occupation removed every checkpoint in Mogadishu and
brought semblance of peace.

Of course, the Islamists have made many reckless mistakes. Certain
hardliners within the courts have haphazardly restricted certain
liberties such as the right to watch movies and the right of women to
opt out to wear hijab.

Even against this backdrop, Islamists still ride high when it comes to
sincerity of action. However, they would be welcomed with vigilant
skepticism and self-confidence that the will of the masses will
ultimately prevail.

People look forward to a new, consensus-building leadership who puts
law and order first. Leadership that would bring an end to the
kidnapping, rape, human-trafficking, and indeed piracy. Leadership that
would subscribes to enlightened nationalism devoid of irredentist
aspiration. People will embrace pluralistic, non-puritanical Islamic
governance.

Lastly, people are yearning for a visionary and a charismatic leader
who would articulate a new vision and inspires the masses to dream a
new Somalia.

http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/56066

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