From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Mon Sep 29 2008 - 23:41:03 EDT
Multipolar World
Tuesday 23 September 2008
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by: Le Monde | Editorial
photo
Le Monde's editorialist cautions, "... contrary to what was imagined,
multipolarity is not presenting itself as an orderly construction based on
several power centers maintaining well-codified relations among
themselves." (Photo: Alexey Soloviev / solo.design.ru).
The international financial crisis has suddenly accelerated a tendency
that has been manifest since the United States' first setbacks in Iraq:
American hegemony, and, one should say, Western hegemony, which seemed to
settle over the world after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of
the Communist system at the end of the 1980s-beginning of the 1990s, has
seen its heyday.
Already since the beginning of the 21st century, Western claims to
impose a Western conception of human rights and to promote democracy as the
best guarantor of security and prosperity have been challenged. The
so-called emerging states, notably in Asia, preach another kind of
modernization. The poor countries commonly called "third world countries"
during the Cold War, denounced the unkept promises of development aid. As
it benefited from the economic globalization it sought to insert itself
into, China, joined by Vladimir Putin's Russia, challenged Western
pretensions to fixing the rules of the game.
Also see below:
The Return to a Multipolar Economy •
The United Nations General Assembly, before which Nicolas Sarkozy spoke
Tuesday, September 23, emphasized the birth of this multipolar world. It's
what French diplomacy has advocated for decades. However, contrary to what
was imagined, multipolarity is not presenting itself as an orderly
construction based on several power centers maintaining well-codified
relations among themselves.
The multipolar world that is brewing is, quite the contrary,
disorganized, almost anarchic. No organizing principle seems to preside
over its constitution. Russia may well attempt to find new allies in Latin
America, China and Africa against the United States; their interests
diverge when Russia changes borders in the Caucasus by force. Both have
reasons to rejoice over the decline of the American ex-"hyperpower," but,
in fact, their dependence on the global economy makes them as much victims
as beneficiaries of the international financial crisis.
Everyone, or almost everyone, demands new rules. Nonetheless, before
new equilibria emerge from the present disorder, it would be wise to expect
some dangerous squalls.
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The Return to a Multipolar Economy
Wednesday 24 September 2008
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by: ATS, La Liberté
The present redistribution of global economic power may permit a
reduction in an American withdrawal's impact on the rest of the world. The
size of the cake grows and its distribution changes with a return of the
multipolar economy, Credit Suisse emphasizes in its analysis intended for
investors. Ten years ago, the consequences of the American financial crisis
would have had a profound impact on Latin American development. Now,
however, that region has been demonstrating a strong capacity for
resistance since mid-2007, observes Javier Santiso, Chief Economist for the
OECD's Center for Development in Paris. The region is not immunized, but it
is better covered against American cyclical fluctuations since Asia
established itself alongside the United States and Europe as a major engine
for growth.
This phenomenon comes from the reduction in cyclical dependence on the
Western world. The latter dominated the international economy during the
20th century, but sees its weight counterbalanced now by that of the
so-called emerging countries. Many countries with high population and
abundant natural resources have long been subjected to a blockage of their
potential. But the former "periphery" is finding an ever more central
position, according to Credit Suisse's experts.
In these economies, infrastructure needs are growing and domestic
demand is becoming energized: two strategic leads for other countries'
companies in quest of growth opportunities. On the one hand, a middle class
is emerging with means that exceed essential needs, hence more consumer
spending. But people at the base of the income pyramid, even with little,
also represent strong purchasing power by virtue of their number.
Thus do emerging populations (China, Brazil, Russia, India) take over
from US consumers to become the determinant factors of growth. And they
will maintain that role for a while. Switzerland also benefits from this
development, since growth in exports has never been more connected to
emerging economies than it is today.
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Translation: Truthout French language editor Leslie Thatcher.
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