From: Yemane Natnael (yemane_natnael@yahoo.com)
Date: Wed Sep 24 2008 - 11:58:54 EDT
Analysis: Somalia crisis deepened by Ethiopia
September 24, 2008
The Associated Press
NAIROBI, Kenya:
Somalia is a land of a thousand plagues, with nearly 20 years of
violent chaos and intractable poverty, Islamic extremism and failed
peace talks.
But the crisis over the past 18 months is exceeding even the
worst-case scenarios dreamed up nearly two years ago, when troops from
neighboring Ethiopia arrived to oust a radical Islamic militia and
support the Western-backed government.
The Ethiopian troops, which many Somalis consider an occupying force, are seen as a root of the violence and not a cure.
"The nature of the crisis is much more dangerous now," Ken Menkhaus,
a Somalia expert at Davidson College in North Carolina, told The
Associated Press. "The level of indiscriminate violence is worse than
at any time."
With no plan in sight for an Ethiopian withdrawal, both sides of the
conflict are at a deadly stalemate — seemingly immune to U.N.-brokered
peace talks, international pressure and even the daily carnage on
Mogadishu's streets.
This week saw a renewed explosion of violence with 30 people killed
in fighting in the capital on Monday and at least 11 civilians killed
during an overnight attack on an African Union peacekeepers' base
in Mogadishu.
The government, powerless without Ethiopia's muscle, will likely
crumble if their protectors pull out. And al-Shabab, a radical group at
the heart of the insurgency, refuses to negotiate as long as
Ethiopians remain.
Many in overwhelmingly Muslim Somalia resent the government's
reliance on Ethiopia, a traditional rival with a large Christian
population and one of Africa's largest armies. Ethiopia and Somalia
fought a bloody war in 1977, and many Somalis see the Ethiopians as
abusive and heavy-handed.
Neither side has shown regard for civilians who stream out of the
capital in droves, many of them gravely wounded and taking shelter by
roadsides or sneaking into neighboring countries. A local human rights
group says the insurgency has killed more than 9,000 civilians to date.
The streets of Mogadishu, a once-beautiful seaside city, are now bullet-scarred and stained with blood.
"If your principal interest is quelling the political violence then
an Ethiopian withdrawal will help," Menkhaus said. "That will take away
the principal grievance."
But a pullout is unlikely, as the militants appear to be gaining
strength and sidelining the government, just as they did during their
six-month rule in 2006. The group, al-Shabab, or "The Youth," has taken
over the port town of Kismayo, Somalia's third-largest city, and
dismantled pro-government roadblocks. They also effectively closed the
Mogadishu airport by threatening to attack any plane using it, and
ordered journalists to register with them.
Unlike in 2006, however, when the Islamists steadily took over much
of southern Somalia and the capital, imposing security while demanding
religious piety, Ethiopia is now standing in the way of any truly
significant rebel advances in power.
"The Ethiopians will make it impossible for the Islamists," said
Daud Aweys, a Nairobi-based Somalia analyst. "The Ethiopians are more
powerful, and they have more weapons."
That means al-Shabab's near-daily mortar attacks, suicide bombings
and ambushes could very likely continue with no end in sight, with the
goal of simply crippling and humiliating the government. Reprisals from
government and Ethiopian allies are swift and heavy-handed, but have
not eradicated the insurgency.
The African Union has sent about 2,600 peacekeepers to Somalia. But
they have a mandate limited to protecting key government installations
such as the airport and seaport.
And they are generally are confined to
the airport because security is so atrocious.
The U.N. has tried to push peace talks between the government and
the opposition, but a recent deal with a more moderate faction of the
Islamic group seems only to have worsened the violence.
Al-Shabab denounced the talks, which took place in Djibouti, and did not participate.
"We have started building up our military strength because some of
our fellow insurgents seem to have been corrupted by the enemy, like
those who signed the so-called deal with the puppet government in
Djibouti," said Sheik Muhumed, a commander with al-Shabab, which the
United States considers a terrorist group.
The Ethiopians, meanwhile, are eager to leave Somalia, saying they
are not meant to be peacekeepers. But they continue to pledge support
for the government, fearing a radical Islamic state on their doorstep.
The United States has repeatedly accused the Islamic group of
harboring international terrorists linked to al-Qaida and allegedly
responsible for the 1998 bombings of the U.S.
Embassies in Kenya and
Tanzania. America is concerned that Somalia could be a breeding ground
for terror, particularly as Osama bin Laden declared his support for
the Islamists.
The U.S. sent a small number of special operations troops with the
Ethiopian forces in 2006 and in early 2007 conducted several airstrikes
in an attempt to kill suspected al-Qaida members.
But the U.S. has avoided overt military action in Somalia since it
led a U.N. force that intervened in the 1990s in an effort to fight
famine. The mission led to clashes between U.N. forces and Somali
warlords, including a battle chronicled in the book and movie "Black
Hawk Down" that killed 18 U.S. soldiers.
Menkhaus and other observers say Somalis are being increasingly
radicalized, blaming the Ethiopians and the government for the
extraordinary violence and humanitarian crisis. The fact that Ethiopia
is a key ally of the United States — a country loathed by most Somalis
— does not help matters.
___
Elizabeth Kennedy has covered East Africa since 2006.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/24/africa/AF-ANL-Somalia-Analysis.php?page=2
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