From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Wed Sep 03 2008 - 08:51:03 EDT
http://ears.nl/crop_yield_forecast_east_africa.php?lang=en Maize Crop Yield
Forecast East Africa
3 September 2008 - *Kenya* and *Eritrea* face reduced yields of respectively
-7% and -6% relative to the 5 yr average. In *Sudan* particularly the
central east-west zone is affected, including large parts of *Darfur*. In
the regions south of Lake Victoria, yield decreases (-20%) are expected in
the east of *Burundi* and the north of *Tanzania*. Slightly above average
yields are predicted for *Rwanda*and south *Uganda*. Low yields in the north
of *Tanzania* are compensated by high yields in the centre of the country,
and therefore at national level maize outputs are expected to be closely
above average (+3%). In *Rwanda*crop water availability has improved the
past half month and now a moderate increase of 4% is foreseen. In the maize
growing area's of *Somalia* crop water availability during the growing
season has decreased the last half month and deviation from the previous 5
years is now -1%, while the difference with 2007 remains positive (+5%).
Yields expectations are at average in *Ethiopia* (-0.2%) but lower than the
previous year and there are considerable differences between the west and
the east of the country.
*DETAILS*
In Kenya drastically reduced maize outputs (-15%) and a decrease of yield in
large parts of the agricultural areas in the country is anticipated due to
drought. Especially in the Rift Valley province low yields are seen in
Laikipia and Narok In Uganda, water availability is good and relatively
normal in most parts of the country. In Tanzania, water availability and
crop prospects are better than normal in the central part of the country
while in the northern part yield decreases are expected. In Tanga, Rukwa,
north Mbeya, south Tabora and south Singida above average yields (+5%) are
seen. In the north, large parts of provinces like Shinyanga, Arusha, Mara,
Mwanza, Kigoma suffer from drought and below average productions are
foreseen.
In western regions of Ethiopia, the water availability for the crops was
very good and average high yields of 5% to 11% are expected in regions like
Benishangul Gumuz, Gambela, western part of Oromia and Amhara and the
northern part of SNNP. By contrast, other regions in the east of Ethiopia
like Afar, Somali and east Oromia suffer from water shortages and show
considerable local differences, with regional yield decreases of -24% in
Afar and -4% in Somali.
Central Sudan is suffering from drought with locally large yield reductions
up to -20% in West Darfur, North Darfur and Kordofan. The conditions are
better in southern parts of the country where normal outputs are expected
but local differences are seen. In Bahr el Ghazal some areas in the centre
and the south of the province show increased production, while in other
parts normal or below average productions are foreseen.
In Somalia, the growing areas in general show relatively normal growing
conditions with positive deviations from the 5-years average of about 2% in
Shabelle and slightly below normal conditions in Hiran (-2%) and Bay
(-0.2%). In general, the yield prospects in Somalia are better than the
previous year except in Woqooyi. In non-cropland areas of northern parts of
Somalia and provinces like Nugaal and Saraag water availability for the
vegetation has improved a lot the past dekads and is now above the 5 yrs
average.
*MAPS*
The maps on next page show the Meteosat derived difference yield (DY)
relative to the 5 yr average (figure 2a) and to the previous year (figure
2b). The actual growing areas, as defined by FAO, are shown in figure 3a and
b.
Full_Report (pdf* format - 231.8 Kbytes)
http://ears.nl/user_files/EastAfr_Maize.pdf
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