[dehai-news] (International Crisis Group) Ethiopia/Eritrea: "Unfinished Peace in the Horn of Africa"


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From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Sat Aug 16 2008 - 16:37:06 EDT


Ethiopia/Eritrea: "Unfinished Peace in the Horn of Africa",
Daniela Kroslak in The Daily Star 8 August 2008
The Daily Star

When Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a deal in 2000, it was supposed to mark the
end of their two-year war. The so-called "Algiers process" did deliver a
cease-fire as well as a mechanism designed to resolve their border dispute.
But eight years on the two countries are no closer to lasting peace,
constantly on the verge of returning to the all-out violence that took
100,000 lives a decade ago.

Fears over regime survival and aspirations to subjugate the other have
brought the leaderships of both countries to support - by hosting and
supporting financially and militarily - the enemies of the other,
domestically and regionally. Resolving the border issue and wider security
concerns between Ethiopia and Eritrea would thus bring benefits to more than
just these countries. Somalia in particular is unlikely to see peace until
the two states, which are currently fighting a proxy war there, settle a
final deal.

Under the Algiers agreement the Ethiopia Eritrea Boundary Commission was
established to make the final determination on the location of the border
between the two countries. However, once that body marked the line on the
map in 2002, handing the small but symbolic village of Badme to Eritrea,
Ethiopia refused to implement the decision. In November 2007, the Boundary
Commission washed its hands of the dispute and demarcated the border by
coordinates - what became known as "virtual demarcation."

For years unhappy with the United Nations peacekeeping mission (UNMEE),
Eritrea finally expelled it from the Temporary Security Zone, a
25-kilometer-wide area on Eritrean territory that had been acting as a
buffer between the two sides, saying that as the border was now demarcated,
the UN had fulfilled its mandate and should leave. This action has won the
Eritreans few friends - though quite frankly they did not have many before
that - and it has refocused international attention away from insisting on
Ethiopia's compliance to dealing with Eritrea's bad behavior.

The lingering, slow-simmering conflict on the border is unsustainable. Not
only does it risk war, but it is used by both countries' governments to
justify political repression. With an enemy always threatening and a war
ever near, both regimes have clamped down on their societies, impeding all
hope of democracy and economic growth.

The international community's overall approach has been weak, first failing
to push Ethiopia to comply with the Boundary Commission's decision, which
both had agreed would be final and binding, and then not reacting more
strongly to Eritrea's de-facto termination of UNMEE. The official closing of
the mission by the Security Council last Thursday was a reflection of this
unassertiveness.

What is needed now is a new international envoy of considerable regional
standing to initiate a fresh process. The aim would be to facilitate
physical demarcation, but crucially also to address the deep-seated issues
which remain fundamental to a resolution of the conflict, such as growing
authoritarianism and regional rivalry. The process will only be successful
if it emphasizes win-win scenarios on each issue and develops incentives for
both sides to remain engaged. This should include development project
pledges from donors, in coordination with the European Commission's Horn of
Africa strategy.

The key obstacle to convening such a process would be finding the political
will from both parties, but also the international will to seek their
renewed cooperation. The United States government is important in this
respect because of its strong relationship with Ethiopia.

Cementing the fragile peace into a lasting one will take a number of steps.
First, all parties - Ethiopia, Eritrea and the UN Security Council - should
formally endorse the Boundary Commission's virtual demarcation of the border
and declare it legally binding. Following that endorsement, the UN should
appoint a special envoy to launch a political dialogue to address the
disengagement of troops from the border, the normalization of bilateral
relations and ending support to the armed groups in the other country. The
result should be the physical demarcation of the border in accordance with
Boundary Commission's decision, accompanied by cross-border development
projects. To this end, the Security Council should aim to reconfigure its
peacekeeping mission to facilitate demarcation and press on with the
demining of the war zone.

Convincing the two sides will obviously not be easy, but there are some
attractions for both to help the process along. Eritrea wants to consolidate
its independence, prefers physical border demarcation to virtual
demarcation, seeks Ethiopian withdrawal from Badme in particular and desires
better relations with the West. Ethiopia is keen to obtain access to
Eritrean ports and an end to Eritrean support for its internal armed
insurgencies. Those factors should encourage the two sides to move past
stalemate to lasting peace.

And if that does not convince the two sides and the international community,
the prospect of a devastating return to all-out war - still very possible in
the current stand-off - ought to focus everyone's mind on finding a lasting
settlement.

*Daniela Kroslak is deputy director of the Africa Program at the
International Crisis Group.*

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