From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Sat Aug 16 2008 - 16:31:39 EDT
Stratfor Today » <http://mail.google.com/analysis> August 14, 2008 | 1656
GMT
PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images
Cameroonian soldiers raise their country's flag over the Bassaki Peninsula
Summary
Nigeria handed over the disputed Bakassi Peninsula to Cameroon on Aug. 14 in
accordance with a 2002 ruling by the International Court of Justice. The
move comes as a surprise, as the Nigerians were not expected to give up
their claim. While Nigeria may have ceded control of onshore territory, it
will hold the upper hand over offshore oil and natural gas deposits as the
two countries will now begin negotiating a joint development zone to tap
unexplored fields in the region.
Analysis
Nigeria's government ceded the Bakassi Peninsula to its neighbor Cameroon on
Aug. 14 after a drawn-out legal battle. Nigeria's decision to recognize a
2002 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on the disputed region
after years of delay comes as a surprise to the many who doubted Nigeria's
willingness to comply. But negotiations to create a joint development zone
to explore and develop the peninsula's oil and natural gas fields mean
Nigeria will continue to have control of the area's resources.
The disagreement over Bakassi dates back to colonial times, when both
Germany and the United Kingdom claimed the territory. In 1913, the colonial
powers forged a treaty on the issue, which Nigeria contested after gaining
its independence. Throughout the 1990s, the controversy heated up as
militant groups fought over possession of the peninsula, with Cameroon
eventually calling on the international community for arbitration. In 2002,
the ICJ invoked the 1913 treaty in granting the land to Cameroon and set a
2004 deadline for Nigeria to hand over control.
In 2004, Nigeria began ceding the northern part of the peninsula, but
hesitated to relinquish the southern part for fear of losing maritime rights
to potentially oil-rich waters. Abuja cited the 20,000 fishermen living on
the southern part of the peninsula as a reason to maintain its claim, while
secretly supporting rebel groups that staged sporadic attacks on Cameroonian
forces patrolling the area. As an extended deadline of 2008 approached,
these assaults increased, and it appeared Nigeria was preparing to delay the
handover yet again. Or so Stratfor
thought<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/nigeria_cameroon_peninsular_dispute_over_offshore_oil>.
Instead, Nigeria agreed to hand over the remainder of the peninsula Aug. 14,
the day set by the international court. For adhering to the court's verdict,
Nigerian President Umaru Yaradua has garnered international accolades from
the United Nations and other organizations. Previous Nigerian
administrations, all dictatorships, were not so keen on following
international norms. (Until former President Olusegun Obasanjo's election in
1999, Nigeria was considered a pariah state in Africa and abroad.) Yaradua
is therefore working to convince the world of Nigeria's goodwill and desire
to play by the rules, and he will press for his country to become Africa's
permanent representative at the U.N. Security Council if plans to expand the
Security Council become concrete.
Not surprisingly, Yaradua would not risk abandoning a potentially oil-rich
region — and subsequently losing his northern support base — merely to
gratify foreign observers. Nigeria's northerners formed the backbone of the
country's previous military dictatorships, and they will resist a president
who does anything to obstruct the flow of petrodollars into their region.
Instead, Yaradua has opted for handing over political sovereignty while
retaining an economic interest in Bakassi, thus officially recognizing
international law without risking the support of his political backers.
The peninsula's transfer appears to open the way for Cameroon to redraw the
two countries' maritime boundaries from a position of territorial strength
and international approval, freeing it up to explore the surrounding waters
for oil and natural gas deposits. (The territorial dispute has prevented
exploration in the region.) Since Cameroon's oil production rests at around
90,000 barrels per day, the acquisition of Bakassi could prove to be a great
advantage.
But Nigeria has not totally surrendered control over Bakassi's potential oil
and natural gas resources. Instead, it has pursued a subtler and more
strategic course. For if Cameroon is to attract international oil companies
to explore the area, and if it is to develop any oil and natural gas
findings, Nigerian involvement will be required.
In the past, Nigeria has negotiated joint development zones with its
neighbors Equatorial Guinea and Sao Tome and Principe, allowing those
countries to share oil production revenues in contested regions — with
Nigeria receiving the lion's share. Nigeria's decision to give up Bakassi
goes along with backroom negotiations to set up a joint development zone
with Cameroon. If Cameroon should attempt to bypass Nigeria in developing
the Bakassi's deposits, however, Nigeria could resort to alternate means of
getting its way, perhaps involving militant proxies. This would not be the
first time Nigeria has involved itself in its neighbors' affairs. In
2003, Nigeria
helped restore Sao Tome and Principe's President Fradique de Menezes after
an attempted coup<http://www.stratfor.com/coup_sao_tome_implications_oil_exploration>to
secure a greater share in the two countries' joint development zone.
Working out the details of this agreement might take a couple of years, but
the point is that, assuming oil is discovered near Bakassi, Nigeria will
retain influence over the region's development and take a considerable share
of the production revenues. Nigeria is a tough negotiator and has much more
experience and strength in the oil sector than Cameroon. Abuja won a 60
percent share of oil and gas revenues from its joint development deals with
Equatorial Guinea and Sao Tome and Principe, and it will seek another lion's
share from Cameroon in developing the Bakassi.
Should Cameroon try to bypass Nigeria to develop any of the region's
deposits, Abuja will respond through proxy militant groups as it has done
before. Nigeria is West Africa's hegemon — it only compromises with its
neighbors if it expects to get something in return. So though international
observers will hail the turnover of Bakassi as a Nigerian step toward more
amiable foreign relations, Abuja's power brokers will expect something more
concrete from this territorial concession.
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