[dehai-news] (The Economist - UK) ERITREA-ETHIOPIA: Proxy war


New Message Reply About this list Date view Thread view Subject view Author view

From: Biniam Haile \(SWE\) (eritrea.lave@comhem.se)
Date: Tue Aug 05 2008 - 19:17:45 EDT


Proxy war

Aug 1st 2008

>From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
 
A stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely to continue
 

The security zone separating Ethiopian and Eritrean troops will cease to
exist after the UN voted to end its border peacekeeping mission. The
risk of new fighting is at its highest level in years-but a continued
stalemate is still the more likely scenario.
 
On July 30th the UN Security Council unanimously voted not to renew the
mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) peacekeeping
mission along the Ethio-Eritrean border. All UNMEE peacekeepers and
civilian staff are likely be withdrawn by the end of August, and the
Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) separating an estimated 200,000 Ethiopian
and Eritrean troops (100,000 on each side) will cease to exist.
 
 The UN decision has not come as a great surprise: all attempts at a
diplomatic solution to the long-standing border dispute between the two
countries have failed, and the independent Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary
Commission (EEBC) closed its operations at the end of November
2007-there seemed little point in continuing, as the designated border
has not been demarcated by the two countries. With Ethiopia refusing to
hand over the symbolic town of Badme (as called for by the EEBC ruling
in 2002), and Eritrea resentful that the UN has not been willing to
compel Addis Ababa to accept the EEBC delineation, there was little
interest on either side for a continuation of the UNMEE mission.
 
The removal of the TSZ is unlikely to presage an immediate return to
war, but the belligerent rhetoric that has characterised relations
between the two countries throughout the current decade will undoubtedly
continue, and fighting could resume with relatively little provocation
from either side. Indeed, some observers suggest that, given the
personal animosity between the leaders of the two countries, a
long-lasting peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia cannot be realised until
changes in government occur in one of the countries.
 
Although there is little prospect of it happening in the short to medium
term, such regime change is an attractive prospect, to some at least.
With no signs of a move towards national elections (postponed since
December 2001), and recent clashes with Djibouti-a Western ally-Eritrea
is increasingly unpopular with the West. Thus if a new conflict did
break out, it could well be privately supported-even as it was publicly
denounced-by many in the international community.
 
For the time being, however, renewed direct conflict seems less likely
than a continuation of Eritrean and Ethiopian involvement in
Somalia-seen by many as a proxy battleground for the two. Ethiopia will
not be able to remove its troops supporting the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) in Somalia before 2009 at the earliest-it plans to
withdraw only once the TFG has established authority and is supported by
a full African Union peacekeeping force, and these are a distant
prospect. Ugandan and Burundian forces will continue to protect the
airport, but the growing violence means that others are unlikely to join
them in the near future. For reasons of logistics and manpower, Ethiopia
is unlikely to initiate a renewed, direct cross-border conflict with
Eritrea as long as Ethiopian forces remain in Somalia. Thus while the
risk of new fighting is at its highest for years, a continued stalemate
is still the most likely scenario.
 
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11869752
<http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11869752&fsrc
=RSS> &fsrc=RSS

         ----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----


New Message Reply About this list Date view Thread view Subject view Author view

webmaster
© Copyright DEHAI-Eritrea OnLine, 1993-2008
All rights reserved