From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Aug 04 2008 - 10:06:57 EDT
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16884/eritreas_border_troubles.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Ddaily_analysis
Eritrea's Border Troubles
August 4, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson
Eritrean soldiers walk south of Asmara during the last Ethiopia-Eritrea war.
(AP/Jean-Marc Bouju)
"One stupid war is enough," Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told
Newsweek in April 2008, explaining why he doesn't want to war with Eritrea
again. Yet a few hundred UN troops are all that stands between the Ethiopian
and Eritrean forces massed on either side of the disputed border zone. Those
peacekeepers will be withdrawn (Bloomberg) on July 31, when the UN ends its
Ethiopia-Eritrea mission. Neither side says it wants war, but experts
continue to worry the standoff could spark open conflict, potentially
igniting skirmishes across Africa's volatile horn.
Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, following thirty years of
war, but the border dividing the countries stil isn't clearly defined. An
eruption of violence in 1998 led to two years of bloodshed but did little to
resolve the border issue. An international border commission issued a legal
demarcation of the border in 2002, awarding the contested town of Badme to
Eritrea, but Ethiopia has refused to remove troops from the town, citing the
deployment of Eritrean troops in what it calls a demilitarized zone. A
military buildup on both sides was separated by a UN peacekeeping mission of
several thousand troops until late 2007, when Eritrea cut the peacekeepers'
diesel fuel supplies. In early 2008, the bulk of the UN peacekeepers left
Eritrea, leaving only about three hundred troops.
In the absence of the UN mission, experts say a significant barrier to
conflict between the two countries will be lost. A June 2008 International
Crisis Group report finds fault with both sides, saying they have used the
impasse as "an excuse to enhance their domestic power at the expense of
democracy and economic growth, thus reducing the attractiveness to them of
diplomatic compromise." The two governments have rejected such criticism in
the past.
Renewed violence with Ethiopia, in turn, could stir up Eritrea's relations
with its other neighbors. Ties with Djibouti and Somalia are also tense. In
May, Eritrea sent troops to its border with Djibouti to stake out a disputed
area near the Red Sea. In June, a skirmish between the two sides resulted in
several deaths for Djibouti. Eritrea's government insists it has no hostile
intent. Yet one regional expert tells the New York Times that Eritrea is a "
ferociously proud new nation," and as such places intense value on "every
inch of land."
The circumstances of the Eritrea-Somalia dispute are different. Eritrea,
which has Muslim and Christian populations of nearly equal size, has
harbored Somalia's hard-line Islamist opposition since December 2006, when
Ethiopia invaded Somalia and pushed the Islamists out. Horn of Africa
analysts, including Terrence Lyons of George Mason University, say Eritrea's
involvement comes as an attempt to weaken Ethiopia. In August 2007, the U.S.
State Department even said it was considering the country (AP) for addition
to its State Sponsors of Terrorism list. In response, Eritrean President
Isaias Afwerki accused the United States of fueling conflict in Somalia
(VOA).
Other analysts say these ongoing conflicts allow the Eritrean government
more domestic leeway on political and economic concerns. Amid the disputes,
Eritrea's local development picture is bleak. The country ranks 157 out of
177 countries on the UN Human Development Index. Policies to keep the army
ranks full have precipitated public discontent, as well as population
flight. At least 320,000 of Eritrea's 4.7 million people are in the
military, says the World Bank. All males between eighteen and forty must
serve at least twelve months, and human rights groups in Asmara say this
term is often extended indefinitely (Reuters). The government says its
military also does development work. Many young Eritreans are fleeing the
country to avoid conscription; a May 2008 Refugees International factfinding
trip to the region found that 75 percent of residents at a refugee camp of
eighteen thousand Eritreans in Ethiopia were fleeing army service or
political persecution.
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