From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Wed Jul 30 2008 - 16:12:29 EDT
Burma and Zimbabwe witness the last gasps of the supreme global sheriff
The west can no longer impose its will on the increasingly powerful and
self-confident nations of the developing world
o Martin Jacques
o The Guardian,
o Wednesday July 30 2008
o Article history
We are but halfway through 2008 yet it has already born witness to a
sizeable shift in global power. The default western mindset remains that
the western writ rules. That is hardly surprising; it has been true for so
long there has been little reason for anyone to question it, least of all
the west. The assumption is that might and right are invariably on its
side, that it always knows best and that if necessary it will enforce its
political wisdom and moral rectitude on others. There is, however, a hitch:
the authority of the self-appointed global sheriff is remorselessly
eroding.
There have been two outstanding examples so far this year. The first was
Burma (or Myanmar as it should be known). We can all agree that the regime
is odious. The question facing the rest of the world in the aftermath of
the cyclone, however, was how to assist the millions of victims of a
humanitarian disaster. True to form, it was not long before the west,
including our own foreign secretary, was talking up the idea of military
intervention; warships were deployed off Burma's coast, talk was rife of
helicopter landings and amphibious craft making their way up the Irrawaddy
delta.
The idea, of course, was patently absurd. Burma's closest ally is China,
with whom it shares a long border, while it is also a member of Asean (the
Association of South East Asian Nations). China, India and Asean - who
largely make up the region - were irrevocably opposed to the use of
military force. Western leaders were living in a time warp: the kneejerk
responses of old, freshened up by the short-lived era of liberal
interventionism, have become a stock response. It was not long before the
bellicose talk subsided and the west was obliged to channel its aid via
Asean - which, from the outset, was the obvious and desirable course of
action.
The fact that the west could not understand the geopolitical realities of
east Asia - now the largest economic region in the world - and adapt its
policies accordingly, revealed that old assumptions and attitudes run very
deep indeed. Even when the very thought is ridiculous and utterly
impractical, the call for military intervention, on the part of political
leaders and media commentators alike, is seemingly the invariable reflex
action. In fact, what Burma demonstrated were the limits of western power,
the need for the west to understand those limits, and to respect and work
with a region rather than seeking to intervene over its head like some kind
of imperial overlord.The second example is Zimbabwe. This hurts the British
psyche. Because we suffer from an acute case of colonial amnesia, we seem
to think that we have some unalienable right to lecture Zimbabwe on its
iniquities. Yet Britain's culpability for the country's plight - from
tolerating Ian Smith's declaration of independence to the disgraceful land
deal that guaranteed the privileged position of white settlers - is second
to none. Notwithstanding all of this, the British feel they enjoy
incomparable moral virtue on Zimbabwe.
Yet this episode too has revealed British - and western - impotence in its
starkest form. After much grandstanding at the G8 summit, the
Anglo-American attempt to toughen up sanctions foundered in the UN security
council, where it was vetoed by Russia and China and opposed by South
Africa and two others. Meanwhile, President Thabo Mbeki, whose efforts to
broker some kind of deal have been widely and patronisingly scorned, has
scored a major diplomatic triumph. The Southern Africa Development
Community's appointed mediator for Zimbabwe, Mbeki managed to bring both
Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC to the negotiating
table. All the western bluster and invective now look just that: the route
to a possible solution has been the work of South Africa, the SADC and the
African Union alone. This is yet a further illustration of a shift in
global authority.
Western power can no longer deliver in the face of the growing power,
competence and self-confidence of developing countries. Instead of
universal western power, we are witnessing the rise of regionalisation and
regional solutions. This reflects broader changes in the global economy.
Economic power is fast ebbing away from the old G7 countries towards the
so-called Bric economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), or, rather more
accurately, a growing number of developing economies. The G7 now account
for less than half of global GDP and that share is steadily falling. Such
economic shifts are the irresistible prelude to parallel changes in
political power. The two examples discussed are classic instances of this
process: Burma involved China and India, together with the Asean countries,
while Zimbabwe featured South Africa, with Russia and especially China,
emboldened in this instance to play a more assertive role on the global
stage. They illustrate what might be described as the growing "Bricisation"
of global politics.
They also underline the comprehensive failure of Anglo-American foreign
policy. At the time of the invasion of Iraq, no thought was given to the
idea that western economic power was on the wane; on the contrary, the
likes of Bush and Blair seemed to believe that we were seeing the dawning
of an era of new and overwhelming western power.
Never underestimate the ability of political leaders to misread history on
a monumental scale. The invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan have both served
to hasten western decline: they have both failed to achieve their
objectives and in the process demonstrated an underlying western impotence.
In contrast, those other "rogue" states, namely North Korea, Zimbabwe, and
perhaps even Iran, show strong signs of responding in a positive manner to
a very different kind of treatment. Liberal interventionism has failed. But
as yet the west shows no sign of either understanding the new world or
being able to live according to its terms.
It remains in denial, refusing to recognise the diminution in its own
authority and, as a result, seemingly incapable of adapting to the new
circumstances and coming up with an innovative response. This is certainly
true of Britain. The foreign secretary only seems able to utter the
platitudes and cliches of the discredited Blairite era: he has yet to come
up with a single idea, suggestion or insight that indicates he understands
the nature of this new world. British foreign policy is mired in its own
past and in its relationship with the United States. In such circumstances
we will find ourselves dragged kicking and screaming into the new era,
constantly shunned and disappointed, a spectator rather than an architect,
cast in the role of Mr Grumpy.
· Martin Jacques is a visiting research fellow at the London School of
Economics Asia Research Centre martinjacques1@aol.com About this article
Close This article appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday July 30 2008 on
p27 of the Comment & debate section. It was last updated at 00:16 on July
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Martin Jacques: Burma and Zimbabwe witness the last gasps of the
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