From: Eri-News (er_news@dehai.org)
Date: Sun Jul 06 2008 - 15:05:29 EDT
As the two factions of ARS hold separate meetings, a shadow of doubt
has been cast over the destiny of the recently signed between ARS
(former?) Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and the TFG Prime
Minister.
Out of the overall confusion, one new element has drawn the attention
of international observers, namely the reference made by the Acting
Chairman of the Alliance, Dr. Zekaria Mahmoud Abdi, that "over 95% of
Somali territory is now under the full control of the ARS fighters".
This shows that the ARS opposition to Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed have
decided for military solution until the final victory over TFG and
the expulsion of the Abyssinian occupation forces. In fact, the world
media have been flooded by recent reports making state of military
victories marked by the Shebab.
The question is whether Somali blood could be avoided through means
of diplomatic negotiations; furthermore, the risk of further US
assistance to Abyssinia (even limited at the level of intelligence
even only until the US elections in November) may prolong the
Abyssinian army stay in the Somali South.
To enlighten the issue, I republish two reports that have been first
published in the Eritrean governmental portal Shabait, and the
leading Somali portal Mareeg.
As the ARS Asmara meeting participants seem ready to engage in the
military option, I find the suggestions of an astute Somali political
analyst from the Diaspora, Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, quite interesting
for discussion and consideration. I republish therefore integrally
his article The TFG/Ethiopia likely to derail the D'jibouti Peace
Accord, which has been published in several Somali portals, notably
Qaranimo and Hiiraan.
For me, the article of Mr. Abdirizak Omar Mohamed represents, better
than most of what I have come to notice and go through over the past
few months, the Voice of Profound Somalia. I will further discuss
options in a forthcoming article.
2nd ARS Central Committee meeting opens here
http://www.shabait.com/staging/publish/article_008538.html
Asmara, 4 July 2008 The 2nd Central Committee meeting of the
Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia opened yesterday here in
Asmara. Speaking at the opening session, the Acting Chairman of the
Alliance, Dr. Zekaria Mahmoud Abdi, pointed out that the meeting is
being held at a time when the Somali issue has reached a complicated
stage and when the super powers, especially the US Administration,
are officially backing Ethiopias occupation of Somalia. He further
underscored that even the United Nations, instead of striving to
resolve the problem in accordance with its Charter, is being part and
parcel of the problem.
Dr. Zekaria went on to explain that the UN has orchestrated the
foiled conspiracy of so-called Djibouti agreement, thus fully
attesting to such a double standard. He exposed that those who
participated in the scheme are the ones who have fallen into the trap
either driven by self-interest or intimidation.
Noting that the Somali popular opposition against the Ethiopian
invasion is gaining added momentum, Dr. Zekaria indicated that the
invading Ethiopian Army and its collaborators are suffering heavy
loss and defeat, and that over 95% of Somali territory is now under
the full control of the ARS fighters. He underlined that the major
victories which the Somali freedom fighters are scoring on the ground
are vivid demonstration of the failure of enemy conspiracy.
Somalia: Opposition factions in Asmara, Djibouti hold separate talks
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6646&tirsan=3
Separate meetings have commenced for the two factions of the Alliance
for the Re-liberation of Somalia [ARS] which are based in Asmara and
Djibouti to discuss the political situation in the country.
ARS factions which are based in Asmara and Djibouti have held
separate meetings to discuss the political situation in the country.
The alliance officials on both sides have said the meetings have been
postponed due to lack of quorum as per the law.
However, Muhammad Suldan Garyare, who is among the Alliance members
in Asmara, said the meeting has started and they now have a full quorum.
Garyare said their group will discuss the political situation in the
country, adding that the Djibouti meeting is not being attended by
all the officials.
He also said his group is discussing what do about the situation in
Somalia.
" We discussed few predictions about what to do, the future of the
alliance, politics both in and out of the country [Somalia] and
correcting the mistakes made by previous leaders of the alliance
[Words in distinct] God willing, the meeting will start on Saturday
[5 July] morning" He said.
He added that the meeting in Sana'a, Yemen is not a mediation meeting
but its meeting between those from the courts who have given up their
lives and finances and whose support we cannot do without.
"It is about those who went to Djibouti to sign the agreement that we
deem illegal and was meant to betray Somalis, The agreement which was
signed regarding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops has not been
implemented. As you are aware, they [Ethiopian troops] went to
Central Regions which is hundreds of kilometres away to follow those
they forced to flee from Mogadishu and have wrecked havoc in those
peaceful areas" he said.
Speaking to Mareeg online by phone from Eritrean capital Asmara
Leyla] Suleyman Roble, who is among the ARS official in Djibouti,
also said the meeting which commenced yesterday was attended by all
ARS officials [of the Djibouti based faction] except for a few who
are on leave.
Suleyman spoke on the discussion in the meetings and their knowledge
of the Asmara meeting held by their rival faction.
"As I said earlier, most of the Central Committee members of the
Alliance are present. There are over 60 officials some of whom
arrived last night while others arrived this morning from Arab
countries; Saudi Arabia and Dubai. Many others are away on official
duty, for example Sheikh Sharif together with 40 members and the
chairman of the Central Committee are also away on duty together with
six or seven other members, but the rest are coming. Our meeting is
not shrouded in secrecy. We are not hiding and the meeting is
conducted" she said.
These separate meetings held by the different factions of the ARS
come at a time when there are apparent differences between alliance
members in Djibouti and Asmara regarding the situation in Somalia
although both sides are currently saying they are discussing ways of
improving the situation in the country.
The TFG/Ethiopia likely to derail the D'jibouti Peace Accord
By Abdirizak Omar Mohamed
http://www.hiiraan.com/op2/2008/july/
the_tfg_ethiopia_likely_to_derail_the_d_jibouti_peace_accord.aspx
The analysis in post D'jibouti agreement between the TFG and the
Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia failed to address potential
obstacles to the peace agreement that would cause its failures. Most
of these analysis focused mainly on one party to the conflict and
failed to critically examine all sides of the conflict by merely
putting emphasis on the emerging cleavage and widening philosophical
differences between the leadership within the Alliance for the Re-
liberation of Somalia; that is whether their disagreement is recipe
for the complete collapse of the agreement before its implementation
begins. By viewing the Accord through the lens of one perspective,
fails to objectively examine the overall accord.
In this essay I will try to present a different analysis as a
rejoinder to these perspectives by examining all sides of the
conflict including Ethiopia and Eritrea as outside spoilers and
potential catalysts for the failure of this peace agreement, as well
as present some suggestions to counter these obstacles. Its
noteworthy to highlight that I am a proponent of this Accord, yet
skeptical about its success and very concerned about some of the
provisions in the agreement.
Many of the write-up in the aftermath of the Djibouti agreement
expressed optimism yet unfairly over-emphasized the disagreement
among the Alliance leadership as the likelihood catalyst for the
failure of the agreement by spreading defeatist notions before the
ink dried up; implying that the Alliance will not deliver what they
have agreed to, due to the emerging disagreement among its
leadership. In fact this is just a fig leaf intended as a smoke
screen for Ethiopia 's ambitious dream to prolong its illegal
occupation by putting blame squarely on the disagreement between the
ARS leadership. In hindsight, when taken into account the following
factors, it becomes obvious any violation of the agreement is likely
to arise from the TFG/Ethiopian opposition and not as a result of the
conflict within the ARS, because the ARS is united in a matter of
principle for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops through military
or political solution.
Ethiopia an outside spoiler
As demonstrated by the deeds and actions of Ethiopia in the past, it
has always played an outside spoiler in all the past Somali peace
agreements and perpetuated the Somali crises for the past 17 years
and illegally invaded Somalia on December 2006. In his response to
this invasion, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia stated that "Our defense
force has been forced to enter a war to defend [against] the attacks
from extremists and anti-Ethiopian forces and to protect the
sovereignty of the land." This could not be farther from the truth,
as Ethiopia has been Somalia 's perennial enemy and its desire to
cause eternal crisis in Somalia is its chief objective.
As Quincy Wright (1965:2) rightly notes that war can't be said to be
occurring when the antagonists do not recognize each other as
participants, but see the opponent simply as an obstacle to the
achievement of certain goals, as geographical barrier might be. From
national security perspective, the Union of Islamic Courts could not
pose danger to the sovereignty of Ethiopia as Ethiopia is more than
capable to deal with threats from poorly armed militia. Accordingly,
stakes are even higher for Ethiopia this time around for the
following assumptions and it will utilize every trick in the book to
derail the D'jibouti accord to pursue its historic hegemonic interest
in the region:
a) The financial life-line that has been feeding Ethiopia s regime
for the past two years to fight off Islamic threats, real or imagined
is likely to be cut off if the D'jibouti Accord is implemented and
Ethiopia is forced to withdraw its troops from Somalia .
b) There is the likelihood that potential domestic uprising due to
food shortage and higher unemployment rates as a result of draughts
and Ethiopian government's regressive domestic policies.
c) The power of the puppet government of Mr. Yusuf will be extremely
diminished to the extent of any power sharing agreement that arises
from the Djibouti Accord will not serve the interest of Meles Zenawi.
Moreover, the geopolitical interest of Ethiopia is at play here and
wants to keep Somalia in perpetual chaos; a case in point is this
open letter titled "Ethiopia is being circled by its enemies" and is
addressed to the Ethiopian Diaspora, intellectuals, Ethiopian
nationalists and government officials. In it the writer Mr. Tecola W.
Hagos of Washington DC urges them to prevent the proposed Djibouti
reconciliation efforts initiated by the head of UNPOS, H.E. Ahmedou-
Ould Abdalla, and the writer uses religion and nationalism as the
basis for his reasoning and why it is obligatory on every Ethiopian
citizen to take every step necessary to challenge and oppose Mr.
Ahmedou-Ould Abdallas peace initiative.
The writer demonizes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla by tearing apart the
envoy's personality and tarnishes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla's report
to the UN Security Council and claims the report is "a direct threat
to the very existence of Ethiopia ". http://www.tecolahagos.com/
Article_UN_Somali_Envoy2[1].pdf . Subsequently, during the peace
process Ethiopia's ambassador in D'jibouti attempted to derail the
peace process, and when that failed the feared head of the Ethiopian
Intelligence Services in Somalia, Mr. Gabre was dispatched to
influence the TFG delegation and as stated by many close observers to
the process accepted the agreement when amended to include a
provision that will give a face-saving exit to the Ethiopians into
the agreement in article Seven section B in which ' the TFG will act
in accordance with the decision that has already taken by the
Ethiopian Government to withdraw its troops from Somalia after the
deployment of a sufficient number of UN forces". As illustrative by
the bolded italic, that addition was made to indicate Ethiopia has
already made a decision to withdraw, when in fact it was included to
meet the demands made by Ethiopia s Gabre.
TFG as an inside spoiler
Though Ethiopia failed to wreck the outcome of the Djibouti Accord to
its benefit, its cronies in Baydhabo are at full force to hamper the
peace process to serve their masters in Addis Ababa . According to
local sources in Baydhabo, parliamentary members closely allied with
the Ethiopians are contemplating to introduce a motion to remove the
TFG Prime Minister to create political crisis that will bring down
his government and open doors to new opportunities to justify
Ethiopia s presence in Somalia for a protracted time and eventually
kill the entire peace process. Others including the TFG president are
making controversial statements on local radios to discredit the
accord by attacking the personalities associated with peace process.
Other members of the TFG parliament will oppose simply for their
personal interest as they benefit from the war economy and aid and
donor money, while they are also concerned about what the uncertain
future holds for them.
Recommendations
As Sally Healy of Chatham House puts it in her latest report,
Ethiopia has become deeply embroiled in Somali politics and has
invested too heavily to settle for a quick exit. Indeed, the
terrorism rhetoric by Meles Zenawi is just a devious ploy and what
drives fundamentally its policy is the existing dispute with Eritrea.
And this is equally true with respect to Eritrea and that the welcome
reception extended for the ARS is not what shapes its policies
towards Somalia, but is using the presence of the ARS as bargaining
chip to divert international attention from its regressive domestic
policies and its border dispute with Ethiopia, a case in point is its
opposition to the currently signed D'jibouti Accord. Given these
realities, and the fact that both are using Somalia to conduct their
dirty proxy war and both have captive audiences that could derail the
peace process, it is paramount that following steps are taken
concurrently;
1) The UNPOS must ask the immediate deployment of the UN troops in
Mogadishu without any delay and immediately ask the Ethiopian troops
to completely withdraw from Somalia . This will give credit to the
agreement as opponents of the accord will have less influence to
inflame opposition to the deployment of UN troops.
2) Support the ongoing dialogue between and within the ARS. While it
is also necessary to make the process more inclusive and invite the
likes of Sheikh Hassan Aweys as he can influence the military wing of
the Alliance and is in a position to woo the Al-shabab wing of the
Alliance .
3) Pressure Ethiopia not to act as a spoiler to the peace process as
it has always done in the past.
4) Urge the International Community to support the peace process
politically and logistically without any delay as it is regrettable
the UN Security Council has not yet discussed the peace agreement and
did not pass a resolution with respect to this peace accord.
Note
Abdirizak Omar Mohamed is and independent researcher and a member of
Somali Canadian Diaspora Alliance who holds Masters degree in
Environmental Studies focusing on post-conflict development from York
University , Toronto and can be reached at Email: abdirizakom@gmail.com
Note
Picture: Dr. Zekaria Mahmoud Abdi in the 2nd Central Committee
meeting of the Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia held in Asmara
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