From: Biniam Haile \(SWE\) (eritrea.lave@comhem.se)
Date: Tue Jul 01 2008 - 18:01:09 EDT
CrisisWatch N°59, 1 July 2008
1 July 2008
Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world
deteriorated in June 2008 and three improved, according to the new issue
of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch,
released today.
In Zimbabwe, state-sponsored violence further escalated ahead of the 27
June presidential run-off vote, as the Mugabe regime continued its
brutal crackdown to secure victory. Opposition MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai was detained five times over the month, opposition
campaigning was repressed and the polling day itself marked by
widespread voter intimidation. Up to 200,000 have been displaced in
rural violence. Mugabe stood as the sole candidate after Tsvangirai
withdrew on 22 June over election conditions. Mugabe's election for a
sixth term in office drew strong regional and international
condemnation.
June saw a further breakdown in Uganda's fragile peace process amid
reports of fresh LRA attacks and threats from neighbouring states to
wage an armed offensive against LRA leader Joseph Kony if the impasse
continues. Kony called for a resumption of talks late in June but still
has not signed the final peace deal since first refusing in April.
Insecurity surged in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta. Militant groups
launched a series of large-scale attacks, including the first ever
assault on a deep offshore oilfield, after army raids on militant bases
in early June. Progress on the much-delayed Niger Delta peace summit
faltered, as groups protested President Yar'Adua's failure to meet key
preconditions. The situation also deteriorated in Djibouti/Eritrea and
Chad.
The situation improved in North Korea, after the government submitted a
long-awaited declaration of its nuclear programs on 26 June. In
response, the U.S. opened up the possibility of removing the DPRK from
its list of state sponsors of terrorism. A new round of six-party talks
is expected shortly. China and Taiwan also saw improvement in
cross-Strait relations, agreeing to resume key transport ties at the
first bilateral talks in over a decade.
The situation also improved in Serbia.
JUNE 2008 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Chad, Djibouti/Eritrea, Nigeria, Uganda, Zimbabwe
Improved Situations
North Korea, Serbia, Taiwan Strait
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque
Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Chechnya
(Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d'Ivoire,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied
Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia,
Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Niger,
North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi
Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan,
Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen
JULY 2008 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alerts
None
Conflict Resolution Opportunities
None
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk
alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect
changes within countries or situations from month to month, not
comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is
given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to
continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new
or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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