From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sat May 22 2010 - 05:53:54 EDT
Pressure mounts on Egypt to change stance on Nile treaty
By Peter Okong'o
Saturday, 22nd May 2010
Egypt's anger over the signing of the new Nile treaty is being countered
with criticism of its intransigence over the years to discuss a review of an
old agreement that gave the country virtual 'veto' power over use of the
waters of Lake Victoria and the River Nile.
Egypt has dismissed the Co-operative Framework Agreement by five Nile Basin
countries - Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda - as "non-binding"
and "illegal".
DRC and Burundi are also expected to sign soon, leaving Egypt and Sudan in
the cold, although the door has been left open for them to sign.
They want to transform the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) into a permanent Nile
River Commission to manage the water resources on behalf of all Nile basin
states.
The first Nile Treaty in 1929 gave Egypt the right to block any developments
upstream of the River Nile, including dams, irrigation works and pumping
stations.
And when the last Nile Treaty was signed in 1959, giving Egypt and Sudan the
lion's share of the Nile waters (86 per cent or 73 million cubic metres),
Uganda's population was just six million and Ethiopia's 20 million. Today,
this has grown to over 25 million and 85 million respectively.
Water scarcity
Accompanying this population growth has been a growing scarcity of water for
farming and domestic use along the Nile basin, while the demand for
electricity has outstripped supply, increasing pressure on the governments
to build more hydropower stations along Africa's longest river.
Even worse for Egypt, new studies show that by 2017, even with minimal
exploitation by the NBI states, the river's waters will not be enough to
support its needs. This is borne out by the fact that millions of its
citizens already suffer acute water shortages daily.
In other words, Egypt should seek more efficient use of water within its
borders, as nothing that other NBI states do will affect the flow of the
Nile significantly this decade.
At the core of Egypt's argument has always been a doomsday scenario, arguing
that its entire economy is dependant on the waters of the Nile.
Water will become the biggest flashpoint for conflict in the region in the
coming decades, as climate change and poor water use cuts supply to a
trickle, but war is unlikely.
Many argue that Egypt is better off reaching a deal with other NBI states
rather than opting for outright confrontation.
In any case, its biggest ally, landlocked Sudan, has its own problems with
the restive Government of Southern Sudan and the conflict in Darfur, while
Egypt is facing a presidential election.
Unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Egypt has never embraced
the building of desalination plants to exploit the limitless water from the
Red and Mediterranean seas, arguing that it is too expensive.
While attacking the treaty, sections of the international media have not
spared Egypt's government, saying it has failed to diversify its water
resources and is now reaping the results.
There has been a flurry of diplomatic activity by Egypt to try and rally
opposition to the treaty in the European Union and the World Bank, among
other key donors.
Foreign donors
Egypt's hope is that these donors will lean on Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and
Uganda to revoke the treaty, or lose funding for projects financed under
NBI.
Funds for the programme are channelled through The Nile Basin Trust Fund,
managed by the World Bank, but NBI countries also give their share.
Unfortunately, that argument has been given short thrift by other NBI
countries who signed the treaty, Kenya included, who want equal say over use
of the Nile waters.
Furthermore, any hole in funding due to a boycott by Western donors would
likely be quickly filled by China, which is now one of Africa's biggest
development partners, and has been pouring aid into the continent and
writing off debts.
By 2008, that aid was worth $107 billion.
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