From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Wed May 19 2010 - 08:52:20 EDT
Scenarios - How might Ethiopia's elections play out?
(Reuters) - Ethiopians vote on Sunday in the first elections since a
disputed 2005 poll -- touted as the country's first truly democratic vote --
ended violently, with 193 protesters and seven policemen killed in street
riots.
World
Analysts are divided on how the parliamentary election will turn out this
time, while the government and the opposition have accused each other of
violence and intimidation before anyone has even voted.
Here are some possible scenarios:
RULING PARTY WINS HUGE MAJORITY
* Analysts say if the opposition were wiped out in the polls and won only 20
to 50 seats they would immediately say the election was rigged and boycott
parliament. If this happens, the eight-party opposition coalition, Medrek,
is likely to make noise in the international media and meet Western
diplomats in Addis Ababa to ask for help. But what everyone will be watching
is whether violence breaks out as it did in 2005.
* It is difficult to predict what Ethiopia's Western allies -- who are vital
donors to the poor country -- would do in such a scenario. But they will
certainly watch to see how widespread protests to the result are and how the
European Union election-monitoring mission reacts.
* If it is only the country's small political elite causing a fuss, it would
be easy for Western allies such as the United States and Britain to issue
statements saying the election fell short of international standards and to
call for measures to be put in place to ensure the next election in 2015 is
fairer. They could also ask for key seats to be re-contested.
* If mass protests were to break out, they would be forced to take a tougher
line. However, they are unlikely to cut back on aid as much of it is spent
on HIV/AIDS and feeding programmes.
RULING PARTY WINS, OPPOSITION GETS LARGE NUMBER OF SEATS
* Some analysts say this is the best chance for Ethiopia's future. If the
opposition were to win about a third of the 537 seats, they could probably
be persuaded to take their seats in parliament and spend the next five years
building their profile.
* The major opposition coalition in 2005, Kinijit, enjoyed huge popularity
with the Ethiopian people but boycotted parliament after saying its election
loss was rigged. Kinijit's leaders ended up in prison, accused of sparking
the street protests to try to force "unconstitutional change." One of its
top leaders, Berhanu Nega, is in the United States and has been sentenced to
death in absentia for overseeing a plot to overthrow the government.
Another, Birtukan Mideksa, is in prison in Addis Ababa for violating the
terms of a 2007 pardon which released her, Berhanu and the other leaders
accused of orchestrating the 2005 violence.
* Kinijit is no more and so it is unlikely Medrek would copy this strategy.
Instead, its MPs may enter parliament and hope pressure from Western donors
to introduce more checks and balances before the next elections, coupled
with the hope the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF) might calculate that in 2015, after almost 25 years in power, it
could be time to manage a transition.
RULING PARTY WINS, VIOLENCE BREAKS OUT
* This is the worst-case scenario for Ethiopia. It seems that both the
support for the opposition, and the street protests, caught Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi and the EPRDF by surprise in 2005. Critics say the ruling party
has spent the last five years consolidating control at a local level,
offering people incentives to join and punishing them by withdrawing
fertilisers and seeds, or blocking them from civil service jobs if they do
not. The opposition also says its members are jailed.
* The government, however, says it has embarked on development programmes in
the countryside -- electrifying towns and villages and building roads --
that will win it popularity. Signs of this progress are certainly evident in
the regions.
* If violence were to break out, the government would have a number of
options to quell it, including jailing the top opposition leaders again. But
this would be a last resort because of the pressure it would bring from
donors.
* Analysts say violence is unlikely because, bearing the above in mind,
Ethiopians just don't expect the opposition to win this time. The government
also says it is now better equipped to put down any violence using
non-lethal force.
OPPOSITION WINS, GOVERNMENT ACCEPTS RESULT
* Analysts agree this would be a shock. If an opposition party were to win,
it would most likely be Medrek. The handover would take time in a vast
nation of 80 million people and one immediate problem would be that Medrek
has no clear alternative prime minister -- given that it has a rotating
chairman.
* The multi-ethnic party -- which contains government defectors -- has
pledged to allow private ownership of land, something the government does
not permit. It would be a huge change in policy in a country that relies on
agricultural exports and could open the door to more foreign investors.
* Medrek's leaders plan to start talks with neighbouring Eritrea -- a
country with which landlocked Ethiopia fought a war from 1998 to 2000 -- for
access to one of its ports. Ethiopia relies on ports in Djibouti and
Somaliland and many Ethiopians regret the country has no sea access via
Eritrea -- a young country that used to be part of Ethiopia. Some worry that
if the negotiations failed, the countries would go to war again.
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