From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue May 18 2010 - 13:50:40 EDT
FEATURE-Tension high in key Ethiopia election region
Tue May 18, 2010 12:44pm GMT
* Ethiopia votes on May 23
* Six people killed in four weeks
* Locals say divided over poll
By Barry Malone
MIDAKEGNE, Ethiopia, May 18 (Reuters) - Forty policemen march two-by-two
through a remote Ethiopian town drawing stares from local farmers for their
incongruous high-tech stab vests, body armour and riot helmets.
"Look, they are trying to terrify us," says opposition politician Teshale
Idosa, his eyes widening. "And it is working. They are terrifying. We are
terrified."
The tension is palpable in the Horn of Africa nation's Oromia region ahead
of national elections on Sunday, with six people killed in just four weeks.
The region is home to the Oromo, Ethiopia's biggest ethnic group with 27
million out of 80 million people. The area also produces most of the coffee
in Africa's biggest grower, along with oil seeds, sesame and livestock,
which are all key exports.
Oromia is seen by analysts as key to the future of sub-Saharan Africa's
second most populous nation, a country that is Washington's main ally in the
region and a growing destination for foreign direct investment.
On the road to Midakegne, soldiers and police stop and search cars, pat
people down and check IDs, sometimes taking notes. Locals often seem
frightened to talk about politics.
The eight-party opposition coalition, Medrek, says two of the six dead were
theirs, while the ruling party says it has lost one candidate and a
policeman was killed.
Another two died when a grenade was flung into a meeting of the Oromo
People's Democratic Organisation (OPDO), part of the ruling Ethiopian
People's Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition
VOTER CONFUSION
Also playing on people's nerves is the fact that Ethiopia's last national
elections in 2005 ended with a disputed result. Seven policemen and 193
protesters died in street riots in the capital Addis Ababa and top
opposition leaders were jailed.
The opposition argues it would sweep to power if the ruling party stopped
intimidating and jailing its members. The government dismisses that
accusation as nonsense and says it will win easily on its development
record.
The ruling party has embarked on massive investment in infrastructure such
as roads and energy. The International Monetary Fund said last month that
Ethiopia would excel this year with growth in excess of 5 percent.
Many people in Oromia told Reuters they were confused about how to vote,
with some towns overwhelmingly supporting the opposition coalition Medrek,
and others the OPDO.
Opposition figures say the Oromo have never had any power despite the OPDO's
place in the government. They see that party as controlled by Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi's Tigrayan People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (TPLF) --
which they say runs the other three parties in the ruling coalition.
Some farmers told Reuters that officials deny them seeds and fertiliser to
force them into joining the OPDO. One man said he was fired after 20 years
as a chemistry teacher because he joined Medrek. OPDO members denied the
allegations.
"Our party is fully independent and Oromo," OPDO official Alemayehu Ejio,
told Reuters. "We are even more popular now because of our development
work."
ELECTRICITY AND WATER
In Midakegne, 40 km (25 miles) from the nearest Tarmac road, the opposition
says a 23-year-old activist, Biyansa Daba, was beaten to death. The
government says he died of cancer and that the opposition is trying to spoil
a poll it will lose.
Merera Gudina, leader of Medrek member party, the Oromo People's Congress,
is tailed on the road to the secluded town by three men in a pick-up truck.
His car, and another containing Medrek activists, are stopped and searched
by soldiers.
When Merera arrives and makes a speech, promising more power to the Oromo
people, he is filmed and photographed by the three men while armed police
watch.
OPDO officials in Midakegne repeated that Biyansa died of cancer, but three
people separately approached Reuters to say he was severely beaten.
Earlier the same day, as the OPDO held a large rally in the town of
Gorosole, locals told Reuters they would vote for the ruling party because
they were grateful for electrification and the provision of safe drinking
water to the town's school.
The ruling party often points to its development achievements. Signs of
progress in Oromia since the 2005 elections are evident.
An impressive road network has been built, towns have electricity and
telephone masts are everywhere.
Just as the meeting is about to reach its climax -- the unveiling of the new
water tap for the school -- Merera and his supporters appear in two cars and
drive through the crowd. They throw leaflets into the air, and at the OPDO
officials.
"Look at them," shouts Yohannes Mitiku, Merera's rival for the area's
parliamentary seat. "They are trying to ruin our rally because they see that
people support us."
"They say we intimidate them but yet they feel free to do this," he told
Reuters.
Once the tap is unveiled, people filter back to villages in the surrounding
hills, their absence revealing an empty street littered with leaflets and
flags.
"Yes, the OPDO have been developing Oromia," says an old man who has watched
the commotion. "But it's development and repression at the same time. They
can build roads to the moon but I won't vote for them until we're equal."
C Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved
SCENARIOS-How might Ethiopia's elections play out?
Tue May 18, 2010 12:44pm GMT
By Barry Malone
ADDIS ABABA, May 18 (Reuters) - Ethiopians vote on Sunday in the first
elections since a disputed 2005 poll -- touted as the country's first truly
democratic vote -- ended violently, with 193 protesters and seven policemen
killed in street riots.
Analysts are divided on how the parliamentary election will turn out this
time, while the government and the opposition have accused each other of
violence and intimidation before anyone has even voted.
Here are some possible scenarios:
RULING PARTY WINS HUGE MAJORITY
* Analysts say if the opposition were wiped out in the polls and won only 20
to 50 seats they would immediately say the election was rigged and boycott
parliament. If this happens, the eight-party opposition coalition, Medrek,
is likely to make noise in the international media and meet Western
diplomats in Addis Ababa to ask for help. But what everyone will be watching
is whether violence breaks out as it did in 2005.
* It is difficult to predict what Ethiopia's Western allies -- who are vital
donors to the poor country -- would do in such a scenario. But they will
certainly watch to see how widespread protests to the result are and how the
European Union election-monitoring mission reacts.
* If it is only the country's small political elite causing a fuss, it would
be easy for Western allies such as the United States and Britain to issue
statements saying the election fell short of international standards and to
call for measures to be put in place to ensure the next election in 2015 is
fairer. They could also ask for key seats to be re-contested.
* If mass protests were to break out, they would be forced to take a tougher
line. However, they are unlikely to cut back on aid as much of it is spent
on HIV/AIDS and feeding programmes.
RULING PARTY WINS, OPPOSITION GETS LARGE NUMBER OF SEATS
* Some analysts say this is the best chance for Ethiopia's future. If the
opposition were to win about a third of the 537 seats, they could probably
be persuaded to take their seats in parliament and spend the next five years
building their profile.
* The major opposition coalition in 2005, Kinijit, enjoyed huge popularity
with the Ethiopian people but boycotted parliament after saying its election
loss was rigged. Kinijit's leaders ended up in prison, accused of sparking
the street protests to try to force "unconstitutional change". One of its
top leaders, Berhanu Nega, is in the United States and has been sentenced to
death in absentia for overseeing a plot to overthrow the government.
Another, Birtukan Mideksa, is in prison in Addis Ababa for violating the
terms of a 2007 pardon which released her, Berhanu and the other leaders
accused of orchestrating the 2005 violence.
* Kinijit is no more and so it is unlikely Medrek would copy this strategy.
Instead, its MPs may enter parliament and hope pressure from Western donors
to introduce more checks and balances before the next elections, coupled
with the hope the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF) might calculate that in 2015, after almost 25 years in power, it
could be time to manage a transition.
RULING PARTY WINS, VIOLENCE BREAKS OUT
* This is the worst-case scenario for Ethiopia. It seems that both the
support for the opposition, and the street protests, caught Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi and the EPRDF by surprise in 2005. Critics say the ruling party
has spent the last five years consolidating control at a local level,
offering people incentives to join and punishing them by withdrawing
fertilisers and seeds, or blocking them from civil service jobs if they do
not. The opposition also says its members are jailed.
* The government, however, says it has embarked on development programmes in
the countryside -- electrifying towns and villages and building roads --
that will win it popularity. Signs of this progress are certainly evident in
the regions.
* If violence were to beak out, the government would have a number of
options to quell it, including jailing the top opposition leaders again. But
this would be a last resort because of the pressure it would bring from
donors.
* Analysts say violence is unlikely because, bearing the above in mind,
Ethiopians just don't expect the opposition to win this time. The government
also says it is now better equipped to put down any violence using
non-lethal force.
OPPOSITION WINS, GOVERNMENT ACCEPTS RESULT
* Analysts agree this would be a shock. If an opposition party were to win,
it would most likely be Medrek. The handover would take time in a vast
nation of 80 million people and one immediate problem would be that Medrek
has no clear alternative prime minister -- given that it has a rotating
chairman.
* The multi-ethnic party -- which contains government defectors -- has
pledged to allow private ownership of land, something the government does
not permit. It would be a huge change in policy in a country that relies on
agricultural exports and could open the door to more foreign investors.
* Medrek's leaders plan to start talks with neighbouring Eritrea -- a
country with which landlocked Ethiopia fought a war from 1998 to 2000 -- for
access to one of its ports. Ethiopia relies on ports in Djibouti and
Somaliland and many Ethiopians regret the country has no sea access via
Eritrea -- a young country that used to be part of Ethiopia. Some worry that
if the negotiations failed, the countries would go to war again.
C Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved
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