[dehai-news] Collapse of the US dollar: Global systemic crisis. The phase of global geopolitical dislocation

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From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Mon Feb 23 2009 - 01:32:56 EST

Collapse of the US dollar: Global systemic crisis. The phase of global
geopolitical dislocation


Global Research, February 17, 2009

 Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic
crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration,
impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate
events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due
to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the
ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the
consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic
crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of
global geopolitical dislocation.

According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two
major processes happening in two parallel sequences:

A. Two major processes:

1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and

B. Two parallel sequences:

1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.

We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world’s leaders the
opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from the collapse of the global
system prevailing since WWII. Alas, at this stage, it is no longer possible
to be optimistic in this regard (1). In the United States, as in Europe,
China and Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has
only fallen victim to some temporary breakdown, merely requiring loads of
fuel (liquidities) and other ingredients (rate drops, repurchase of toxic
assets, bailouts of semi-bankrupt industries,…) to reboot it. In fact
(and this is what LEAP/E2020 means ever since February 2006 using the
expression « global systemic crisis”), the global system is simply out
of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can
no longer be saved.

Orders in the manufacturing sector, Quarter 4 2008 (Japan, Eurozone, United
Kingdom, China, India) - Sources : MarketOracle / JPMorgan

Orders in the manufacturing sector, Quarter 4 2008 (Japan, Eurozone, United
Kingdom, China, India) - Sources : MarketOracle / JPMorgan

History is not known to be patient, therefore the fifth phase of the crisis
will ignite this required process of reconstruction, but in a harsh manner:
by means of a complete dislocation of the present system, with particularly
tragic consequences in the case of several big global players, as described
in this 32nd issue of the GEAB (see the two parallel sequences).

According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small launch window left to
prevent this scenario from shaping up: the next four months, before summer
2009. Practically speaking, the April 2009 G20 Summit is probably the last
chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play, i.e. before the
sequence of UK and then US defaults begin (2). Failing which, they will
lose their capacity to control events (3), including those in their own
countries for many of them; and the world will enter this phase of
geopolitical dislocation like a “drunken boat”. At the end of this
phase of geopolitical dislocation, the world will look more like Europe in
1913 rather than our world in 2007.

Because they persisted in bearing the ever-increasing weight of the ongoing
crisis, most states, including the most powerful ones, failed to realise
that they were planning their own trampling under the weight of History,
forgetting that they were merely man-made organisations, only surviving
because they matched the interest of a large majority. In this 32nd edition
of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has chosen to anticipate the fallout of this phase
of geopolitical dislocation so far as it affects the United-States, EU,
China and Russia.

US Monetary base - (12/2002 – 12/2008) - Source US Federal Reserve /
US Monetary base - (12/2002 – 12/2008) - Source US Federal Reserve /

It is high time for the general population and socio-political players to
get ready to face very hard times during which whole segments of our
societies will be modified (4), temporarily disappear or even permanently
vanish. For instance, the breakdown of the global monetary system we
anticipated for summer 2009 will indeed entail the collapse of the US
dollar (and all USD-denominated assets), but it will also induce, out of
psychological contagion, a general loss of confidence in paper money
altogether (these consequences give rise to a number of recommendations in
this issue of the GEAB).

Last but not least, our team now estimates that the most monolithic, the
most « imperialistic » political entities (5) will suffer the most from
this fifth phase of the crisis. Some states will indeed experience a
strategic dislocation undermining their territorial integrity and their
influence worldwide. As a consequence, other states will suddenly lose
their protected situations and be thrust into regional chaos.


(1) Barack Obama, like Nicolas Sarkozy or Gordon Brown, spend their time
chanting about the historic dimension of the crisis, but they are just
hiding the fact that they fully misunderstand its nature in an attempt to
clear their names from the future failure of their policies. As to the
others, they prefer to persuade themselves that the problem will be solved
like any normal technical problem, albeit a little more serious than usual.
Meanwhile everyone continues to play by decades old rules, unaware of the
fact that the game is vanishing from under their noses.

(2) See previous GEABs.

(3) In fact it is probable that the G20 will find it more and more
difficult to simply meet, as the growing trend is one of « every man for
himself ».

(4) Source : New York Times, 102/14/2009

(5) Idem companies.

Lundi 16 Février 2009

In the same category:
End of 2008: The world enters the decanting phase of the global systemic
crisis - Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries
experiencing very different evolutions - 05/02/2009
Real estate: A bottomless pit - 08/01/2009
Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US - 11/12/2008
LEAP/E2020 offers the GEAB archives to 100 academic libraries worldwide! -
LEAP/2020: Global systemic crisis September 2008 - Special announcement -
Traffic Info LEAP/E2020 - May 2008 - 12/05/2008
 issues of your choice for 50 euros - 22/01/2007
French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work of anticipation -

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