[dehai-news] Mareeg.com: Somalia:The Seismic political changes in somalia

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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Jan 20 2009 - 10:06:29 EST


Somalia:The Seismic political changes in Somalia




Barack Obama taking Office not only is ground breaking but is also a
seismic shift in politics. Include that with the resignation of Abdulahi
Yusuf, the elections in Puntland and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.
With all this you have a new playing field, in which factions and
organizations must rethink their strategies and agendas. One group that
has not been bothered with this is Al Shaabab, it still continues on its
path of violence, playing in to the hands of Ethiopia's great strategy
of divide and conquer. Even Ethiopia, seeing the election of a Democrat,
has rethought its strategy and left Somalia. Abdullahi Yusuf saw the
tide turning and left office.

            With the withdrawal of Ethiopian soldiers Al Shaabab will be
seen not as
a resistance, but as a threat to peace. Unfortunately all of Al Shaabab
members are full time fighters and part time thinkers. They now have a
bigger threat than fighting Ethiopia; they must now deal with public
opinion. It's hard for public opinion to be on your side when you
portray yourself as resisting occupation when the occupier has left.
Knowing this they have set their sights on African Union troops, who
have taken a neutral role in the fighting. All this points to a pattern
of bad leadership, mismanagement of policy, lack of knowledge in
governing, behead first ask questions later attitude that seems to be
leaving Al Shaabab in the back seat when it comes to Somali politics.

            The federal government, while it seems weak, is at least on a
path. The more it seen as cozying up to Ethiopia, the less appealing it
will be to those who are appalled by Al Shaabab. The more trips leaders
of the TFG take to Addis Ababa the more it will be seen a puppet
government. The more it seen as a puppet government, the higher the
chances that more groups will spring up apposing Ethiopian indirect
rule. This of course is the problem in Somalia, where every faction has
to have a say. The best option seems to be alienating those whose views
are in the minority so they will have less of a public support when
their threats turn into action. If the Federal government did this, Al
Shaabab would not exist today. It was created because ICU was seen as to

            The Federal government best hope seems to be expanding the
before electing a new President. If this doesn't happen the whole cycle
of misrepresentation will start all over again. When the parliament is
expanded it must be done equally among all clans, since ICU is mainly
made of one clan. Eventually Al Shaabab will either be smart enough to
change its policies or will no longer exist as an organization.

            The President when elected by parliament must work on restoring
relations with Puntland. Since the departure of Abdulahi Yusuf might
create resentment in the region. All parties must avoid going power
hungry at the expense of unity. Al Shaabab has not figured this out yet,
hopefully the Federal government has. Logically speaking I doubt
Ethiopia would allow one group to excel in power, without it controlling
it indirectly. Ethiopia would not withdrawal from Somalia unless it had
a better plan of fulfilling its agenda. It seems to be relying on that
colonial principal of divide and conquer.By Ayanle Daad
anled%40hotmail.com> ayanled@hotmail.com

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