From: Mohamed Khader Mohamed (fwd@dehai.org)
Date: Sun Jun 14 2009 - 22:05:45 EDT
African Union Report Reveals TFG has no chances of Success
By Mohamed Khader Mohamed
al-Hayat 10 June 2009
http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/25847
Translated from Arabic
A confidential African Union report on Somalia, revealed that the
Somali government led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed is weakening; and
has no chance of success or the ability to defeat the Islamic
opposition, which has vowed to topple it. The internal AU report that
was obtained by the al-Hayat newspaper reporter in Nairobi indicating
that the Government “has no legitimacy and is considered by large
portion of the Somali population as an instrument for the United
Nations and the Western nations.”
The Report, which covers the general situation in central and
southern Somalia during April and the beginning of the month of May,
stated the popularity of President Ahmed and his government is
decreasing by day since he was elected as the President of Somalia
earlier this year. It also added that the support from his clan is
not up to the level of challenge he is facing, despite his calls for
his tribesmen to join the army in defense of his government.
The government officials, according to the Report, are acting along
narrow tribal and personal interest.” The financial support that is
provided by Western nations and international organizations did not
find its way to the programs that it was intended for. The bulk of
the revenue of the Mogadishu port is ending in the pocket of Abgal
tribe dealers and a portion in the pockets of the government
officials. Moreover, the Report disclosed, the income from some of
the checkpoints erected in the streets of the capital goes to people
loyal to the TFG.
The Report shows the deep concern of the African Union, which has
deployed its force in Somalia to protect the Transitional Federal
Government and to assist the Government in the formation its security
forces. There is no doubt that the African Union, which is helping
the government militarily and politically, possesses enormous inside
information, which gives credibility to the information included in
the report.
However, the Somali Information Minister, Farhan Ali Mahmud rejected
that his government is on the verge of collapse. In a telephone
conversation with al-Hayat reporter, he said, “We are much stronger
than we were months ago. The number of soldiers now exceeds five
thousand troops and we are in an offensive position, while the other
party on the defensive. They are on retreat, while we are achieving
militarily and in our talks with the opposition who are wishing for
peace.” Nevertheless, he declined to comment on the rest of the
information contained in the report.
Contrary to what the Minister claimed, the Report stated that
President Sharif’s attempt last month to win the moral and military
support of his tribe during the recent fighting in Mogadishu; using
Western financial support did not succeed. It exposed that although
an estimated of 20 thousand members of his Abgal clan militias
responded to the appeal, yet undisclosed local observers confirmed to
the author of the Report, that the bulk of them were looking for
money and weapons. And “not more than 100 of them have participated
in the actual fighting, which highlights the huge difference between
the Jihadists who have been fighting for their goal and the interim
government militias that are fighting for the money and who does not
believe in the government, its personalities and its concept of
governance” the Report stated. Moreover, it indicated that the
number of army and police forces of the Somali government are not
more than 1000 to 1500, including all militiamen loyal to warlords
and radical figures in the government.
In contrast to, Western support for the government and the continued
presence of the AU force in the country; public support to the
Alliance for Reconstitution of Somalia is growing by the day.
Besides, the chances of them forming a unified movement have increased.
The Report also criticized the international community’s focus on
“top-bottom” policy, which is building leadership before creating the
appropriate governmental and other institutions, stating that such
measure led to greater instability in Somalia. Furthermore, the idea
of making Somalia a testing ground for international initiatives has
adversely affected the long-term attempts to build a successful
system of government and security services, in addition to their
negative impact on the stability of the country from recovering from
nearly two decades of strife and chaos.
Regarding the U.S. policy on Somalia, the Report stated that the new
American Administration has “chose to continue President Bush’s
policy which will again, inevitably, lead to the failure in foreign
policy to follow the right path.” The term of the TFG is seven years,
supporting it proceed with all defects would only “mean more chaos
for the Somali people, and more time and space to jihadists, and to
strengthen their operations and expand their spheres of influence.”
The Ethiopian occupation that was endorsed by the U.S Administration
resulted in the displacement of the 10,000 educated family Somali
society, which means the loss of the infrastructure that was supposed
to build the country's institutions.
The Report concluded, the way events are going in Somalia, the ARS
only needs six months of planning and munitions storage to pose a
real threat to the government, that is if AU remains protecting the TFG.
al-Hayat is an internationally known Pan Arabic newspaper
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