From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Apr 01 2009 - 07:07:43 EST
ANALYSIS-Sudan's Bashir vulnerable despite defiant front
Wed Apr 1, 2009 11:39am GMT
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, April 1 (Reuters) - Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's
defiant response to international efforts to arrest him for war crimes in
Darfur hides vulnerabilities that could embolden his enemies.
On Wednesday, Bashir travelled to Saudi Arabia in another challenge to the
arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court on
March 4 over seven charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Bashir's visits -- he has now made five trips abroad in just over a week,
showing the court's inability to arrest him -- have won expressions of
support from Arab countries and a measure of public admiration back home.
"If there was an election now, he would win it. The people admire a strong
man and he has also managed to show himself as a victim of the West," said
Faizal Silaik, deputy editor of daily newspaper Ajras al-Huriya.
Bashir has also closed down 16 aid groups accused of helping the court and
addressed a string of nationalistic rallies.
"All the Sudanese people have rallied around their leadership against these
allegations," Bashir himself was quoted as saying on state news agency Suna.
But his stance has done nothing to resolve major issues that could
eventually loosen his hold on power.
Those include the festering conflict in Darfur, oil-dependent Sudan's
sinking economy, fears over a fragile peace deal between north and south
Sudan, and relations with the United States and United Nations that have
worsened since the aid expulsions.
"He (Bashir) gives the appearance of a strong position. But that is more
apparent than real," said one Western diplomat in Khartoum. "The regime
remains fragile. People are looking for weakness. If they see him falter
they will throw him overboard."
DARFUR THREAT
The most immediate challenge could come from Darfur itself.
The rebel Justice and Equality Movement attacked Khartoum last year and has
promised to return, threatening to arrest Bashir themselves if nobody acts
to hand him over to the court.
The rebels say their resolve will be sharpened if Bashir manages to remain
at large.
"It will show the only hope we have is through our guns," JEM leader Khalil
Ibrahim told Reuters by satellite phone.
Sudan's economy is another area of weakness. During the boom years of
soaring oil prices, Bashir's government was easily able to pay supporters,
civil servants, soldiers and militias.
But the collapse in the global oil price has emptied government coffers.
"When the government stops giving them enough for their day to day life,
will they stand with him? Surely not," the vice president of Sudan's
opposition Umma party Fadlalla Burma Nasir told Reuters. The Umma party
opposes the arrest warrant.
It is still unclear which, if any, of Sudan's political forces could stand
up to Bashir and his power base in the Sudanese army.
Opposition parties have weakened and splintered in the almost 20 years since
Bashir seized power in a bloodless coup.
The south's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) -- in a coalition
government with Bashir's National Congress Party since a 2005 peace deal
that ended two decades of north-south civil war -- has so far stood by its
political partner.
But that could all change if Bashir shows signs of backing down on any parts
of the fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement, most importantly the
highly-prized referendum on southern independence it promised in 2011.
There are a host of other issues Bashir will have to face if he wants to
keep the south stable and relatively on side -- not least south Sudan's own
even deeper economic crisis, caused by the region's near total dependency on
oil revenues.
INTERNAL CHALLENGE?
Some Western diplomats and political analysts believe that a challenge from
within Bashir's own party is possible.
Potential plotters could be spurred on by any sign of further sanctions from
the U.N. Security Council, imposed over Sudan's refusal to deal with the ICC
or its aid expulsions.
"He owns the aid problem now. If there is a cholera outbreak or a meningitis
epidemic, it was the government that said it would take care of it," said
the Western diplomat.
There is scope for the United Nations to expand sanctions against Sudan --
its arms embargo currently only covers Darfur and it has the power to freeze
the assets of Sudan's political elite and restrict their travel.
"That is the question -- what are the Security Council's next steps going to
be, more sanctions?" said Hafiz Mohammed, Sudan programme coordinator for
London-based campaign group Justice Africa.
"Already some wise people are starting to come forward in Sudan saying this
can not continue."
So far, there have been few signals from abroad to encourage internal
plotters. U.S. President Barack Obama has yet to give details on how he will
deal with Bashir's regime.
"Bashir is strong in the short term -- maybe for the next six or seven
months, maybe even a year. But in the long term we are all losers," said one
senior opposition figure.
"If there is no change, if Bashir just goes on without settling the Darfur
situation ... then things are going to be very bad in Sudan."
(Additional reporting by Skye Wheeler in Juba; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)
C Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
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