http://www.therepublic.com/2016/10/27/af-somalia-al-shababs-resurgence/
Somalia’s al-Shabab in comeback as Ethiopia pulls troops
By ABDI GULED -
10/27/16 9:19 AM
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia’s Islamic extremists, al-Shabab, appear
to be making a comeback, having recently seized four towns and
attacked a guesthouse in neighboring Kenya, killing 12.
The resurgence of Al-Shabab, which is allied to al-Qaida, could affect
Somalia’s plans to hold elections next month and further destabilize
what is already one of the world’s most fragile states.
The rebels had steadily lost ground over the past five years, first
losing control of the capital, Mogadishu, in 2011 and then being
pushed out of virtually all of Somalia’s other major cities and towns.
This was largely the work of the African Union force of 22,000
soldiers from Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi and Djibouti, which is
supported by the U.N. The relatively weak Somalia army, with 35,000
troops, also participated in the operations.
Al-Shabab was reduced to roaming around Somalia’s vast, arid scrubland
and staging deadly suicide bombings in Mogadishu and other centers. In
recent months there have been more attacks on hotels, and al-Shabab
has directly attacked African Union bases.
But this month, Ethiopia — which has 2,000 troops in the African Union
force and an unknown number operating independently in Somalia —
pulled its forces out of the towns of Halgan, El-Ali and Mahas in the
Hiran region of south-central Somalia. Al-Shabab wasted no time, and
within hours its fighters had seized control of the towns and raised
their black flags.
On Wednesday, Ethiopian troops withdrew from a fourth town, Tiyeglow,
in the southwestern Bakool region, and al-Shabab retook it.
Al-Shabab’s swift seizures of the newly exposed towns are worrying for
Somalia, which faces a presidential election in late November.
It is not known how many Ethiopian troops have been pulled out of
Somalia, but analysts say they were withdrawn in response to
Ethiopia’s need for troops at home to enforce the state of emergency
imposed this month to quell months of anti-government protests.
“Returning a large number of troops back home left the Ethiopian army
overextended in Somalia, so abandoning some ground in Somalia is
inevitable,” said Mohamed Sheikh Abdi, a Somali political analyst.
Meanwhile, Somalia’s civilians are bearing the brunt of the
withdrawals, with militants executing suspected government
collaborators in each location they recapture, say residents.
“They left without informing us, only to find al-Shabab here and
killing our elders,” a resident told The Associated Press by
telephone, on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “We would
rather have al-Shabab here than having unpredictable soldiers leaving
us in the open.”
Ethiopia’s government spokesman, Getachew Reda, said Ethiopia’s recent
pullout from certain places in Somalia did not include relocating the
country’s forces that are part of the multinational African Union
mission.
“But the troops that we sent to Somalia on our own do not necessarily
have to stay there as long as (the African Union mission) does,”
Getachew said Wednesday.
He said the troop pullout is not related to his country’s six-month
state of emergency, declared on Oct. 8, and he said the troops that
were moved from Halgan were transferred to other bases in Somalia.
But he urged the international community to step up and “take up the
slack from us” in Somalia, saying that “for our forces to remain there
indefinitely would be the height of irresponsibility.”
Somalia and African Union officials were not available for comment on
this month’s withdrawals.
“Ethiopia has more pressing troubles on its hands now, so it cannot
focus on outside missions much. The focus should be to avoid the Arab
Spring-style violence” at home, said Ahmed Mohamed, a retired Somali
military colonel in Mogadishu.
Somalia’s security forces are supposed to be taking on more
responsibility as the African Union force prepares to withdraw by the
end of 2020, but this month’s attacks indicate that the Somali forces
may not be able to hold the gains made by the African Union troops
that deprived al-Shabaab of large parts of territory.
This week, al-Shabab also attacked a guesthouse in Kenya and killed 12
non-Muslims in Mandera County, near the Somalia border.
Al-Shabab’s resurgence comes after the extremist group recently
splintered, with some former members forming an offshoot allied to the
Islamic State group, instead of al-Qaida. The fighters allied to IS
this week claimed control of a town in the north, in the
semi-autonomous Puntland region, but then withdrew on Wednesday night,
according to residents.
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Associated Press writer Elias Meseret in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, contributed.
Received on Thu Oct 27 2016 - 10:41:57 EDT