http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21708685-once-darling-investors-and-development-economists-repressive-ethiopia?fsrc=rss%7Cmea
The downside of authoritarian development
Ethiopia cracks down on protest
Once a darling of investors and development economists, repressive
Ethiopia is sliding towards chaos
Oct 15th 2016 | From the print edition
IT WAS meant to have been a time for celebration. When on October 5th
the Ethiopian government unveiled the country’s new $3.4 billion
railway line connecting the capital, Addis Ababa, to Djibouti, on the
Red Sea, it was intended to be a shiny advertisement for the
government’s ambitious strategy for development and infrastructure:
state-led, Chinese-backed, with a large dollop of public cash. But
instead foreign dignitaries found themselves in a country on edge.
Just three days earlier, a stampede at a religious festival in
Bishoftu, a town south of the capital, had resulted in at least 52
deaths. Mass protests followed. Opposition leaders blamed the
fatalities on federal security forces that arrived to police
anti-government demonstrations accompanying the event. Some called the
incident a “massacre”, claiming far higher numbers of dead than
officials admitted. Unrest billowed across the country.
On October 8th, a week after the tragedy at Bishoftu, the ruling
Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) announced a
six-month state of emergency, the first of its kind since the former
rebel movement seized power in 1991. The trigger was not clear:
violent clashes between police and armed gangs, and attacks on
foreign-owned companies, had been flaring across the country for
several days (and have occurred sporadically for months) but seemed to
have plateaued by the weekend. On October 4th an American woman was
killed while travelling outside the capital. Protesters have blockaded
several roads leading in and out.
One factor in the government’s decision was a spate of attacks on
holiday lodges at Lake Langano, and on Turkish textile factories in
Sebeta, both in the restive Oromia region south of the capital, on
October 5th. The attackers were well-organised and armed, some of them
reportedly mounted on motorbikes. These acts, officials suggest, were
the final straw.
The government is rattled by the prospect of capital flight. An
American-owned flower farm recently pulled out, and it fears others
may follow. After almost a week of silence, the state-of-emergency law
was a belated attempt to reassure foreign investors, who have hitherto
been impressed by the economy’s rapid growth, that the government has
security under control.
A calm of sorts now prevails. On October 10th parliament, which since
last year’s elections has been entirely populated by members of the
EPRDF and its allies, heard details of the decree, which it is
expected to formally approve. The bill provides for sweeping powers of
arrest and a draconian ban on free assembly and expression. The prime
minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, was confident enough to attend to
diplomatic pleasantries. Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, arrived
in the capital the following day to talk about refugee flows from the
region. Mobile internet access, which the government blocked in order
to disrupt the protests, flickers occasionally and feebly back to
life. The hustle and bustle of Addis Ababa continue as before, though
an uneasy silence has settled across towns like Bahir Dar in the
Amhara region where strikes have emptied the streets for weeks. In
Addis Ababa, at least, a mood of resignation has taken hold. Better
dictatorship than civil war, residents shrug.
Still, the future is troubling. Over 500 people have been killed since
last November, and tens of thousands have been detained. What began
nearly a year ago as an isolated incidence of popular mobilisation
among the Oromo people, who make up at least a third of the population
and opposed a since-shelved plan to expand Addis Ababa into their
farmland, has spread. It is now a nationwide revolt against the
authoritarianism of the EPRDF and the perceived favouritism shown to a
capital whose breakneck development appears to be leaving the rest of
the country behind.
The young are frustrated. They feel that growth has yet to bring the
broader prosperity promised by the government in return for their
political obedience. Thanks in large part to foreign aid, expansive
public spending supported by Chinese loans and an uptick (from a very
low base) in foreign investment, Ethiopia was Africa’s fastest growing
economy in 2015—a remarkable feat for a still largely agrarian
country. But the expectations of an increasingly educated population
have grown even faster. Despite big strides, a third of Ethiopians,
who now number nearly 100m, still live on less than $1.90 a day.
The Oromos are not the only ones with grievances. Many others have
been driven off their land to make way for commercial farms and
factories. And the Amharans, who have historically been Ethiopia’s
dominant ethnic group, resent the leadership of the much smaller
Tigrayan group (who make up around 6% of the population) at the heart
of the ruling EPRDF. The comparative quiescence of Addis Ababa’s
citizens has further fuelled resentment. Angry farmers in parts of the
country have been choking the movement of goods towards the city. The
opposition calls for political prisoners (who are reckoned to number
in the thousands) to be freed, but the government is in no mood to
oblige. However, on October 10th the president promised to introduce
some form of proportional representation in elections, which would
allow all groups a share of power.
Tinkering is unlikely to be enough. The EPRDF has weathered storms
before. Civil strife after disputed elections in 2005 resulted in at
least 193 deaths and many thousands of arrests. This time Ethiopians
are calling just as fiercely for regime change, and not just reform.
Ethiopia, until recently a darling of Western donors and security
hawks alike, is edging closer to the brink.
Correction (October 13th): The original version of this article said
that parliament had rubber-stamped the state-of-emergency law; it had
not. This has been corrected.
This article appeared in the Print Edition with the headline: The
downside of authoritarian development
>From the print edition: Middle East and Africa
Received on Thu Oct 13 2016 - 14:43:28 EDT