(Stratfor) Ethiopia: Unprecedented Protests Creep Toward the Capital

From: Biniam Tekle <biniamt_at_dehai.org_at_dehai.org>
Date: Thu, 6 Oct 2016 11:35:04 -0400

https://www.stratfor.com/snapshots/ethiopia-unprecedented-protests-creep-toward-capital?utm_source=paidlist-a&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=10/06/2016&utm_content=Daily+Intelligence+Brief%3A+Oct.+6%2C+2016&id=be1ddd5371&uuid=7b78f3e8-1340-40e9-bd45-391f4bf38707

Ethiopia: Unprecedented Protests Creep Toward the Capital
October 5, 2016 | 18:24 GMT

Protests near the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa highlight the
unprecedented challenges facing the historically stable African
nation. Over the past two days, demonstrations have been held on the
outskirts of the city. Though largely, dissent has been expressed by
workers staying home in an unofficial general strike, there have been
sporadic clashes between protesters and security forces. The unrest
led to violence in the village of Holeta, near the capital that
resulted in the death of a U.S. citizen. He was killed when a crowd
began throwing rocks at the van carrying him and eight other foreign
nationals. Details of the attack remain scarce, but it seems likely
that it was linked to the ongoing protests.

Tempers have periodically flared across the country since November
2015, but the bulk of the unrest had been concentrated in ethnic Oromo
regions, where controversial land development projects are underway.
In recent months, however, ethnic discontent has spread to the
predominantly Amhara areas of Ethiopia's northwest, adding to the
mounting pressure against the central government led by the country's
Tigray minority. In response to the spreading protests, the
administration has struggled to crack down on public dissent. Reports
even suggest that the government has recalled some 3,000 soldiers from
Somali bases to help contain the unrest. Despite its best efforts,
though, the demonstrations' organic nature has made them difficult to
stop.

The worsening unrest is unusual for Ethiopia, which has long been one
of the most stable and influential states in East Africa. For the most
part, its political systems have remained static, with the exception
of two armed rebellions in the 20th century. Compared with its fairly
steady past, protests over the past few days, which have shut down
economic activity in the capital, are unprecedented. They also
indicate that the government, which so far has been able to shut down
most of the protests in Addis Ababa, is having a harder time silencing
the public's calls for change.

That will not stop the administration from trying, though. The deeper
the demonstrations spread into the city, the greater the threat they
will be to the government's hold on power. Should the administration
prove incapable of quashing any further signs of dissent in the
capital, it could embolden protesters, inciting additional
demonstrations and, perhaps, harsher responses from the authorities.
At this point, the Tigray-led government is still unlikely to fall,
but its inability to stifle opposition will be important to watch
carefully nonetheless.
Received on Thu Oct 06 2016 - 10:14:48 EDT

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