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Nagy: Ethiopia at the crossroads with its government
Posted: September 24, 2016 - 10:37pm | Updated: September 25, 2016 - 12:02am
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By Tibor Nagy
For the Avalanche-Journal
There has been considerable media coverage lately for a number of
Ethiopian Olympic athletes who’ve publicly proclaimed their support
for ongoing demonstrations against the Ethiopian government, and
expressed fear that they may be harmed, or worse, if they now return
home. The government responded by guaranteeing their safety and
stating that all Ethiopians should be proud of the athletes’
achievements.
Having just returned from taking a group of 10 U.S. universities to
Ethiopia to explore partnership opportunities, I am more concerned
about that country’s fate than at any time since my first diplomatic
assignment there in the mid-1980s.
First, so what? When hearing “Ethiopia” I’d venture most Americans
still think of a country emblematic of the Four Horsemen of the
Apocalypse with famines, droughts, conflicts and abject poverty. While
once true, Ethiopia has made dramatic progress in recent decades and
stands on the cusp of being one of the very few African countries
which will likely achieve middle-income status within years, not
decades.
In addition to being among the world’s fastest growing economies, the
country has built more than 30 national universities during the past
15 years, and devotes 28 percent of its budget to education; perhaps
the highest in the world. It is also a key ally of the U.S. and is the
anchor country for peace and stability in the Greater Horn of Africa
region — aggressively confronting the Islamic Terrorists of al-Shabaab
in Somalia, and playing a key role to bring peace to South Sudan.
Ethiopia, about 11/2 times the size of Texas, is projected to reach
180 million people by 2050 — from about 95 million now — which will
make it the 10th most populous in the world.
And unlike all the other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa which are
artificial creations from European colonial powers drawing imaginary
lines on a map, Ethiopia is a result of its own millennia-long
historical evolution and was never colonized. Its current government
is also the most progressive in its long history and has instituted a
system of “ethnic federalism,” which attempted to give the major
ethnic groups control over their own affairs.
So what’s the problem, and why the ongoing demonstrations which expand
week by week? Unfortunately, one of the unintended consequences of
“ethnic federalism” was focusing on peoples’ ethnicity instead of
being “Ethiopian,” and this has amplified societal divisions which
didn’t exist under the emperors or the Marxist dictatorship which
preceded the current government.
In addition, while today’s government is in fact a tremendous
improvement over the bloody regime it overthrew, it has hit a brick
wall in its progress toward genuine democracy. There is the formal
government with ministers and ministries, which includes highly
talented technocrats who want to move the country forward.
But behind the curtain there is still the informal power structure,
composed of veterans from the movements which ousted the Marxist
dictator, who at their core don’t trust democracy, free elections or
market economics. They would much prefer to maintain a Chinese-style
authoritarian system, along with a Chinese-style state-controlled
economy. As violent demonstrations spread through parts of Ethiopia,
behind the scenes there is a power struggle going on for the future
direction of the country between the old-guard and the younger
generation of leaders.
Although the handwriting is on the wall, and change will come, it’s
largely up to the Ethiopian leadership to determine whether this
change will be managed and orderly, or it will get out of hand
resulting in bloodshed, chaos and possibly decades of lost progress.
While the U.S. can certainly influence events and promote progress
through deft diplomacy, there is a built-in contrariness in Ethiopian
governments so that the wrong type of U.S. pressure can actually be
counterproductive. (When I was ambassador I called this trait the
“hedgehog response;” one small poke and all the quills come out.)
One factor which would help achieve a “soft landing” would be for
Ethiopia to have a credible opposition in government, which could
officially give voice to the peoples’ perceived or actual grievances.
Currently, with zero opposition presence in the federal government,
the population feels that they can only express their unhappiness
through demonstrations.
It’s true that it’s not a government’s responsibility to create an
opposition, but governments have tremendous influence over whether the
environment is friendly or hostile for an opposition to operate. And
historically all Ethiopian governments — to a greater or lesser extent
— have considered opponents to be traitors.
The next elections are years away, and there is no certainty that the
environment will be any more favorable to opposition gains than it was
during the last round in 2015. Meanwhile, the demonstrations will not
overthrow the government — but the government also cannot totally
stamp out the demonstrations, as the army, which reflects the
population at large, may not be willing to fully engage.
If I were advising the Ethiopians, I would suggest an immediate
national dialogue with the government engaging (genuine) opposition
leaders and key NGOs. Hopefully this could lead to early elections
with the government making certain that there is a level playing field
throughout the country to enable opposition candidates a fair shot at
winning.
Sadly, if the current state of affairs persists, I see a continuing
deterioration in Ethiopia’s internal stability and years of progress
could be reversed. The country is too valuable a U.S. ally, and has
made too much progress toward peace and prosperity, to allow it to
slip away.
Ahead lies a potentially dynamic, entrepreneurial and democratic
middle-income nation which can be an example and leader for the rest
of Africa; behind is the renewed threat of the Four Horsemen. Don’t
let them ride again.
TIBOR NAGY is vice provost for international affairs at Texas Tech and
served as U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia from 1999 to 2002 and to Guinea
from 1996 to 1999.
Received on Mon Sep 26 2016 - 11:47:57 EDT