https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/muffled-insurrection-ethiopia
A Muffled Insurrection in Ethiopia
Analysis
August 19, 2016 | 09:30 GMT
Members of Ethiopia's Oromo ethnic group have been protesting the
government since November 2015. Now that another large ethnic group,
the Amhara, have joined them, the protests have become an unusually
troublesome problem for Addis Ababa. (-/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
Ethiopia's government, led by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, has
contended with protests for nearly a year. The government's efforts to
quell the unrest have made headlines and drawn international criticism
of late, but its problems go well beyond humanitarian concerns. Since
the mid-1970s, Ethiopia underwent several periods of upheaval that
changed not just the leaders of the country but also the political
system and institutions that govern it. Now, with ethnic discontent
reaching a new high and the tendrils of insurgency starting to
re-emerge, Desalegn's administration faces the greatest challenge to
its rule yet.
Analysis
The protests erupted over a land reform measure, but the roots of
discontent go much deeper. Ethiopia's Tigray ethnic population makes
up just 6 percent of the country's population, yet it enjoys
disproportionate influence and representation in government
institutions. When the Tigray-dominated government proposed to develop
farmland predominantly used by the Oromo people, who make up 34
percent of the population, protests broke out across Oromo regions
from November 2015 onward.
Eventually, the government decided against the planned reform, hoping
that the protests would dissipate. Instead, protesters continued to
turn out, driven by the imprisonment of demonstrators. Then, in recent
weeks, the Amhara people — another large ethnic group, accounting for
29 percent of the population — joined in, and the focus of the
protests shifted to demands for political equality and an end to the
Tigray-dominated ruling coalition's reign. The protests have now
surpassed any grievances about specific legislation, or any specific
law enforcement action. Instead, there is a rising resistance to the
Tigray's outsize power and enough pent-up discontent to challenge
Ethiopia's current government.
Together, the Oromo and Amhara are a more serious threat to Ethiopia's
leadership than the Oromo on their own. Furthermore, the Amhara people
are more concentrated in urban areas than the Oromo, which has led to
protests in population centers. Facing mounting dissent from two of
the country's largest ethnic groups, the government has attempted to
suppress the unrest through force. During the weekend of Aug. 7,
reports emerged that over 100 civilians had been killed in protests,
which led to outcry over the Ethiopian security services' brutal
methods to control the demonstrations. Because the Ethiopian
government exercises strict control over media activity in the country
and restricts internet access, reports of what exactly happened are
slow to emerge. But information from local hospitals suggests that
another 100 civilians have been killed since that weekend; at least 55
of these deaths have been confirmed. The rise of urban protests has
also led to greater media coverage of the turmoil, despite the
government's attempts to control information.
A History of Upheaval
Ethiopia is no stranger to political unrest. For many centuries the
country was run by a monarchy, the Solomonic dynasty, whose rule ended
with emperor Haile Selassie. In 1974, a military council brought the
first regime change, installing a communist-inspired military council,
the Dergue, to lead the country. Eventually, popular support for the
new administration began to erode, leading to civil war. The Dergue's
most prominent officer, Mengistu Haile Mariam, tried to reform the
Dergue into the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in 1987, but
just four years later, several ethnic rebel groups overthrew the
government. The Tigrayan People's Liberation Front, led by Meles
Zenawi, eventually gained control of Ethiopia and installed the
element that rules to this day.
The government in Addis Ababa has been challenged before. Unlike the
ongoing protests, however, previous uprisings such as the Ogaden
rebellion were isolated to smaller ethnic groups acting alone, and the
government dealt with them decisively and successfully. By joining
forces across ethnic lines to oppose the ruling powers, the Oromo and
Amhara present a more formidable problem for Ethiopia's leadership.
Additionally, under Desalegn's rule, the government has faced internal
unrest and may not be as strong as it was during Zenawi's rule, which
lasted until 2012. As the chairman of the Tigrayan People's Liberation
Front — the dominant party in the ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition — Zenawi led the fight
against the communist government that preceded it and installed the
Tigray-dominated government in Addis Ababa. His parliament consisted
of fellow rebel veterans who had all fought and won together in the
war against the Dergue, while Desalegn's administration lacks the same
unity and solidarity. The Oromo and Amhara protests will test whether
the Tigrayan administration can endure without Zenawi.
A Budding Insurrection
At this point, the protests and limited rebel activity do not even
approach the situation Ethiopia faced in the 1970s and 1980s, when the
Dergue countered multiple severe rebellions. Nonetheless, given the
size of the Amhara and Oromo populations in Ethiopia, the threat they
present should not be taken lightly. As strong as they appear, the
Tigray-dominated institutions in Ethiopia are not monolithic. And,
because of their small number, the Tigray have had to co-opt members
of smaller ethnicities (such as the Wolayta, from which Desalegn
hails), and even the Amhara and Oromo, to serve in government and man
the security forces. If opposition to the government increases along
ethnic lines, the ruling elite or even Ethiopia's security forces
could fracture.
Since the bloody Aug. 7 weekend, protesters in some areas have turned
to less violent forms of civil disobedience. For instance, in the
Amhara city of Gondar — once the capital of an ancient Ethiopian
empire — civilians have gone on a general strike, turning the city
into a ghost town despite calls from the government to resume business
as usual. Some reports even claim that local militia or rebel groups
near Gondar have attacked convoys and bases belonging to the security
forces. Though these incidents seem to be few and far between at this
point, several latent insurgencies linger in Ethiopia, and growing
ethnic dissent could rejuvenate and galvanize support for these
simmering rebellions. In the past week, two rebel groups announced
their alliance. If these groups increase their attacks, or if other
groups join the movement opposing the government, the current
administration could face a similar fate to the one it brought upon
its predecessors.
The Oromo and Amhara protest movements could change the course of
Ethiopia's future, but it is not yet clear what the result of their
uprising will be. A change of leadership could bring greater political
freedoms, such as allowing outlawed opposition groups to take part in
free and fair elections. On the other hand, it could also lead to
prolonged conflict and instability. If the resistance against the
government reaches critical levels, Desalegn could decide against an
armed struggle and instead take political measures to liberalize or
transfer power. Regardless of how this situation develops, Ethiopia's
Tigray-dominated government may not be able to sustain its hold on
power for much longer. And though the current protests may be
Desalegn's first major challenge, they will likely not be his last.
Received on Sat Aug 20 2016 - 09:50:15 EDT